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Forex Forum Archive for 09/08/2022

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GVI Forex Blog 19:53 GMT September 8, 2022
Still a Case for Reverse Currency Wars
Reply   

I wrote this article in May and it is worth reposting now as the logic of what I expressed then is even more relevant today. However, to change the current direction of the dollar it would probably take coordinated intervention or some other actions by major central banks to reverse its dominance.

Still a Case for Reverse Currency Wars

Israel MacroMicro 18:15 GMT September 8, 2022
THE QUEEN

all I remember from King Charles the 3rd is him telling to a married woman: 'I want to be your tampon'

Belgrade Knez 17:56 GMT September 8, 2022
THE QUEEN

Prince Charles is the King!

Mtl JP 15:08 GMT September 8, 2022
mkt

109.88
-
looks like powell's yak a nothing-burger to players (be they domestic or foreign) maybe it is players' turn to initiate something, some negative catalyst the make the policy-maker gang "worry", keep 'em up at night

Mtl JP 13:59 GMT September 8, 2022
mkt



DLRx 109.87
tells me what I think I need to know

I judge that players were not impressed with yesty's beige book
which I think they think is not an enthusiastic prescription for aggressive rate hike next. DLRx whispers - to me at least - to be prudent with unbridled DLR buying hand over fist. In fact I have alerts set up for possible DLR de-stretching.

PAR 13:39 GMT September 8, 2022
THE QUEEN
Reply   
Today will be all about THE QUEEN and I don't mean Christine Lagarde.

PAR 13:30 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB


Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
·
56m
To put things into perspective: The 75 basis point rate hike is the largest in the #ECB's history. But the ECB is still way behind the curve. While #Inflation is at a record 9.1%, ECB deposit rate w/0.75%, light years away from a high.

Israel MacroMicro 13:29 GMT September 8, 2022
Alert

Powell talks about single mandate, he may find soon the politicians decide to give no mandate at all.

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT September 8, 2022
Alert

powell is taking Qs ... have one or two ?

I for one wonder how much of a stock crash would give him pause

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT September 8, 2022
Alert

evans (at noon) and kashkari (14:20) lurking in the background with yaks little later, as safety backups to powell

Mtl JP 13:22 GMT September 8, 2022
Alert

Forex 13:06 euro off 70-ish pips
powell to feed a 100bps hike to players ? lol
the inflation fighter that he peddles himself to be

PAR 13:16 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

Too little, Too late.

Should have done it over a year ago when she came up with her transitory story.

Israel MacroMicro 13:13 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

so, next ECB meeting Lagrde to show with a Burkah (Turkey/Syria) or with a stringy (Brazil) ?

Israel MacroMicro 13:12 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

German 2yr tells you what the market thinks

swiss frank 13:11 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

Sorry and to answer my own question if there ever has been.....

Yes. The cases of Turkey, Brazil, Syria come to mind.

swiss frank 13:09 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

Yet she emphasizes how a disproportionate amount of inflation comes from rising energy prices due to the war. Good luck to her.

GVI Forex 13:06 GMT September 8, 2022
Alert
Reply   
Powell due to speak in a few minutes

Mtl JP 13:04 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB

yes.
bearish econ assessments have been categorized as 2ndary to the primary trumping goal of taming inflation growth back to their 2% inflation rate

swiss frank 12:58 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB
Reply   
Has there ever been a more bearish economic assessment following an outsized int rate hike?

Israel MacroMicro 12:54 GMT September 8, 2022
Yen

“The reality now is that Japan can no longer get hold of food or energy resources at reasonable prices, and it needs to reverse its strategy of depending so heavily on the outside world,” Shibata said. “There were signs of strain from before, but Japan had not taken action thinking it was a temporary phenomenon. Now it may be too late to reverse course.”


full article -FT

GVI Forex 12:26 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB Decision

.

ECB Press Release

Amman wfakhoury 12:02 GMT September 8, 2022
EUR USD 1.0031 1.0047 1.0063 10080

into buy mood this hour any decline below 10015 will return to it

Amman wfakhoury 11:45 GMT September 8, 2022
EUR USD 1.0031 1.0047 1.0063 10080
Reply   
one by one

Amman wfakhoury 11:43 GMT September 8, 2022
GBPUSD where are you going

1.15555 reached ..
100% guaranteed

Amman wfakhoury 11:04 GMT September 8, 2022
GBPUSD where are you going

into Buy mood this hour any decline below 11540 will return to it

Amman wfakhoury 10:58 GMT September 8, 2022
GBPUSD where are you going

1.1533 reached ..keeps above it 1.15555 will be reached

Amman wfakhoury 10:50 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB Decision

75
100 % guarnteed

Mtl JP 10:49 GMT September 8, 2022
mkt



DLRx 109.51
angle of pricing t-line now at 48.1
-
last minute jockeying adjustments: dlr slightly off , euro slightly uP

GVI 10:42 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB Decision



The market is currently hedging against the risk of 75bp

The Amazing Trader

Mtl JP 10:13 GMT September 8, 2022
Verbal Intervention

BLA BLA BLA AAHH yakyakyak

GVI Forex 09:56 - Jay I refer you to my 16:27 GMT Sep 7:
- Japan ... of well ... Japan remains committed to support and easing and happy to only whine about "rapid and one-sided” price moves. And NO BALLS to intervene.

***************
solo - or unilateral - intervention is a trade opp to fade n exploit the turkey

as long as japan's monetary policy is a square peg amongst round pegs on relative basis.

GVI 10:12 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB Decision
Reply   
Post your view:

50bp or 75bp rate hike?

GVI Forex 09:56 GMT September 8, 2022
Verbal Intervention
Reply   
This came out a little while ago and not much reaction

Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda agreed at the meeting on need to watch markets with a strong sense of urgency, will not rule out any step and are ready to take action in the FX market, BoK and Govt are extremely worried about recent JOY moves.

Source:

Newsquawk.com

Mtl JP 09:42 GMT September 8, 2022
Superior Confrontational Trading Psychology
Yesterday is too late.


the undesirability of "runnable nature":
risks can easily spill into the main core financial system
-
While crypto "has all the same risks that we’re very familiar with from traditional finance,” its quirks need tailored solutions, Lael Brainard said

Fed Vice Chair Brainard Calls for Crypto-Specific Regulations, Notes Stablecoin Risks

Mtl JP 09:17 GMT September 8, 2022
mkt

9997
IF only "euro holds its breath" turns blue and d...
-
at this pricepoint I do not think 75bps is fully priced in

Amman wfakhoury 09:09 GMT September 8, 2022
GBPUSD where are you going
Reply   
to 1.1533 or 1.1465
This hour into sell mood any rise above 11495 will return to it

GVI Forex 08:30 GMT September 8, 2022
mkt

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook

The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia went large this week - and their currencies fell. Now the euro holds its breath.

Morning Bid: Go big

PAR 07:20 GMT September 8, 2022
ECB LAGARDE CRUELLA PONZI MAFIA KAFKA
Reply   
KBC Economics

The bar Lagarde needs to meet is set at 75 bps.

Doing so, as we expect given that new inflation forecasts will again have been revised upwards materially, should keep the downside in European yields protected. After today’s meeting, money markets currently discount 75 additional bps tightening for the final two meetings of this year (which we find too conservative).

Renewed upward yield pressure thus depends on the ECB president’s hawkishness and commitment to frontloading. If Lagarde delivers, the euro may find some support, but possibly not more than in a daily perspective. Aside from the rate hike, we’ll watch the Q&A for hints regarding balance sheet reduction (a plan before the end of the year?) and the ECB’s approach to the matter of TLTRO’s (reversed tiering, early repayment incentives?).

Amman wfakhoury 06:46 GMT September 8, 2022
GOLD 1719.41

Amman wfakhoury 17:49 GMT 09/07/2022
now 1718.50..just I need it to rise to 1719.41
_____________________________
1719.41 Reached
100% guaranteed

Amman wfakhoury 06:46 GMT September 8, 2022
GOLD 1719.41

Amman wfakhoury 17:49 GMT 09/07/2022
now 1718.50..just I need it to rise to 1719.41
_____________________________
1719.41 Reached
100% guaranteed

Bangkok KC 06:08 GMT September 8, 2022
BUY GBP/USD on dips

Yesterday, GBP is marked by a bullish pin bar that can be the signal for a reversal... target 1.1850 in the near term.

Bangkok KC 06:04 GMT September 8, 2022
BUY AUD/USD on dips

AUD/USD probably have a double bottom formation around 0.6700 on daily and weekly chart. It may be able to test 0.7100 again in the near term.

Keep buying AUD on dips...IMHO

Bangkok KC 02:47 GMT September 8, 2022
BUY AUD/USD on dips
Reply   
1st [email protected]

Bangkok KC 02:45 GMT September 8, 2022
BUY GBP/USD on dips
Reply   
1st [email protected]

I think we have a bottom atleast for now.

tokyo boj 01:04 GMT September 8, 2022
Yen

Hk Ab 00:55 GMT 09/08/2022
147mission

Hk Ab 00:55 GMT September 8, 2022
Yen
Reply   
Mission not complete yet, in my opinion.

 




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