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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2022

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Mtl JP 20:38 GMT January 7, 2022

DLRx 95.74
what could be called "somewhat softer"
raises the Qtn whether players are lowering march fed rate hiking expectations or just gaming for better price

tia for views

Mtl JP 20:21 GMT January 7, 2022

covid and children hospitalizations
because of covid or with covid
CDC's "increadibly hard working" dr walensky

replies (at and on 10:55 min) presser

dc CB 19:58 GMT January 7, 2022
BLS Employment Situation Summary


Update (1446ET): Aside from the utter lack of basic knowledge of Covid-19 exhibited by some of the USSC Justices (see below), the court seemed skeptical of the Biden administration's claim that it has the authority to force vaccine mandates on over 84 million private sector employees.

"OSHA�s sweeping regulatory dictate," will "irreparably injure the very businesses that Americans have counted on to widely distribute COVID-19 vaccines and protective equipment to save lives�and to keep them fed, clothed, and sustained during this now two-year-long pandemic," argued the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) vs. the Department of Labor, in the Court's first hearing.

The mandate will "convert hundreds of thousands of businesses into de facto public health agencies for two-thirds of America�s private employees,"

EARLIER today:

Update (1143ET): The Supreme Court, which is hearing arguments over vaccine mandates, displayed a stunning lack of knowledge of basic Covid-19 facts during today's oral arguments.

The worst offender - Justice Sotamayor - who not only claimed that there are "100,000 children in serious condition," with many on ventilators (there are 3,342 per HHS with many or most being incidental covid positives alongside other conditions), but that Omicron is as deadly as Delta.

This is just absolutely astonishing. "100,000 children in serious condition," per Sotomayor. Where do these people obtain their misinformation? The current national pediatric COVID census per HHS is 3,342. Many/most incidental.
� Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) January 7, 2022

dc CB 19:54 GMT January 7, 2022
BLS Employment Situation Summary

Citi To Fire All Unvaxx'd Unless They Comply With Mandate By Jan 14

Citigroup has just become the first Wall Street megabank to give the anti-vaxxers among its 70K employees an ultimatum: either get vaccinated (and turn over the appropriate proper documentation), or find somewhere else to work.

As Wall Street banks struggle to find a strategy to bring workers back to the office without putting them at risk of getting COVID, the bank has decided that Citi employees who don't comply with this mandate by Jan. 14 will be placed on unpaid leave, and their last day of employment will come at the end of the month, according to a message to Citigroup staff seen by Bloomberg.

This is by far the most restrictive requirement among Wall Street firms. But whether or not it will help the financial services industry bring workers back to the office more quickly remains to be seen.

Mtl JP 18:29 GMT January 7, 2022

EURO 1.1360
shorts squealing, almost deafening (ref "deliverance")
N of 50day ... odds r gunning for 1.1386


JP 19:39
almost everything I read about the puppy talks about trip to 1.11/1.10
wonder: why do most folks think that ?

Israel MacroMicro 16:42 GMT January 7, 2022

JP - MaMi your lucky ex-wife

POTUS Biden doing the yakking show now, the guy is literally saying: 'duck you Wallstreet"

Mtl JP 16:36 GMT January 7, 2022

MaMi 16:11 I don't trade to make some wife happi

Israel MacroMicro 16:15 GMT January 7, 2022

the little wider picture...

US Dollar Credit Supply: Lower corporate supply expected in 2022
We forecast lower supply in 2022. We expect corporate supply to amount to US$650bn this year, down from the US$720bn penciled in last year. Similarly, we expect Reverse Yankee supply to fall slightly this year. We forecast �55bn for 2022

Executive summary
Expect corporate supply at US$650bn in 2022, lower than the past couple years

Corporate supply totalled US$720bn in 2021, down of course on the substantial US$1.2tr in 2020, but still sizeable compared to previous years. December was a rather active month for primary markets, with supply pencilling in at US$45bn for the month. This is up considerably on the US$10bn-US$15bn norm for December.

We expect a drop in corporate supply in 2022. We are forecasting USD corporate supply to amount to just US$650bn. Similarly, we forecast US corporate supply (in $ and �) to be lower in 2022 at US$630bn, down from the US$685bn seen last year. The drop is based, similar to European issuance pressures, on the back of factors such as pandemic-related funding needs continuing to subside and high levels of cash on the balance sheet outweighing potential rises in capital expenditure or M&A related issuance.

Reverse Yankee supply totaled �59bn in 2021, down marginally from the �68bn supplied in 2020. This is also on the lower side of the average over the past number of years. We forecast a small drop again in Reverse Yankee supply in 2022, in line with expecting lower supply in general. Historically, Reverse Yankee supply generally accounts for 10% of US corporate supply, which should amount to US$63bn (�55bn). Furthermore, Reverse Yankee supply is on average 19% of Euro corporate supply, which we have forecasted at �290bn. Therefore, we forecast Reverse Yankee supply to hit �55bn in 2022.

Largest financial supply on record, totaling US$563bn in 2021

Last year saw the largest financial supply on record after amounting to a considerable US$563bn. This is up on last year�s record-breaking US$518bn. December penciled in a decent US$20bn in supply, down marginally from the US$28bn seen in 2020. Although this is still a sizeable amount, and above the US$5bn average of previous years.

Timothy Rahill
Credit Strategist

Israel MacroMicro 16:11 GMT January 7, 2022

beautiful JP

you and KNEZ seems to be true chess minded FX traders :)

Mtl JP 16:04 GMT January 7, 2022

eurdlr 1.1349
shorts and wedgies
go well together today

Mtl JP 15:42 GMT January 7, 2022

1.124x = typo; s/b 1.134x

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT January 7, 2022

eurdlr 1.124x
time to dump some as
risk and sl well defined

Israel MacroMicro 15:25 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???

Jay, where is WFAK?

reach you for what? did I miss something?

GVI Forex 15:22 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???

Macro. You know how to reach me.

Israel MacroMicro 15:21 GMT January 7, 2022

nice call/trade JP !!!

Mtl JP 15:21 GMT January 7, 2022

EURDLR 1.1345
Bingo !

Israel MacroMicro 15:11 GMT January 7, 2022

Mtl JP 14:19 GMT January 7, 2022

WFAK class accuracy with professor level language

Israel MacroMicro 15:09 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???

we want WFAK, we want WFAK

crown is ready, just the king is missing

Israel MacroMicro 15:09 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???

dear Jay, due to market boredom currently why not chill and and joke a little?

GVI Forex 15:02 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???

Macro, why don't you contact me and ask rather than posting conspiracy theories, which in this case is way off base, unless you are looking to stir things up. Hope this is clear.

Mtl JP 14:30 GMT January 7, 2022

US 10-YR 1.746%, +0.013
and eurdlr 1.1325

looks like someone is being cantankerous

Israel MacroMicro 14:29 GMT January 7, 2022
where is WFAK ???
Jay said 'contact me WFAK'
WFAK confirmed the contacting
WFAK disappeared

did Jay ask WFAK not to post anymore and/or funded for WFAK $5K live trading account and made WFAK very happy?

wondering :)

Israel MacroMicro 14:23 GMT January 7, 2022

stop above week's high and hold for few days fits to your weekly EUR/USD chart you so kindly shared.

look further (adjust parameters) at 1.1290, if seen.

personally, opened short @ 1.1322

a plan ?

Mtl JP 14:19 GMT January 7, 2022

EURO 1.1318
IF puppy breaks N of HoD
1.1345/50 come on attack radar

Israel MacroMicro 14:16 GMT January 7, 2022

more important PAR, where you studied to trade?

again, market shown us that and how VIX longs can make great money and especially when you get timing alert from me.

have a great weekend PAR and enjoy the date with the madame Lagarde :)

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT January 7, 2022

yields schmields
DLRx 96.10
still inside narrow range

at 10nyt non-voter daly yaks about monetary policy

PAR 14:11 GMT January 7, 2022
Where did Lagarde study economics?

How can you have negative interest rates in the Eurozone with inflation at 5%? This is never seen financial repression.

Israel MacroMicro 14:11 GMT January 7, 2022

EUR/USD @ 1.1315

current weekly range 110 pips

normally, we would witness 135 pips range this week
if normally works this week, we have at least 25 pips to expend from here. so, pick your direction.

Mtl JP 14:09 GMT January 7, 2022
BLS Employment Situation Summary

Jay how about "Miss on NFP because of wages up" ?
as better for businesses to shovel off salary(wo)men onto gov't unemployent benefit claimant roll

PAR 13:41 GMT January 7, 2022

Non-farm payroll doesn't count anymore it is the unemployment rate that is the only important figure. The USA is at full employment.

GVI Forex 13:35 GMT January 7, 2022
BLS Employment Situation Summary
Miss on NFP but wages up, jobless rate down, US bond yields up after data

BLS Employment Situation Summary

Mtl JP 13:35 GMT January 7, 2022

experts snookered . again
+199k jobs in Dec
below forecast

london red 13:20 GMT January 7, 2022

not sure this nfp has potential to do lasting damage to present fed trajectory. a weak number passed off as omicron related while a strong number just confirms march is in play for a hike. so nothing new.
think cpi next week has more potential to move markets in a surprising manner.

Mtl JP 13:14 GMT January 7, 2022

EURDLR 1.1296
what sort of NFP reading would be needed for players turn their FED-induced ratehikes dlrUP bias ?

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT January 7, 2022

eurusd 1.13
trade opp coming up:
08:30nyt - NFP 379K expectation vs 210K prev

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT January 7, 2022

ab even tho it may be the convention - in well oiled and tuned trading room (?) - admittedly it is better to spell out the intended trade and so remove any potential for ambiguity


hk ab 08:04 GMT January 7, 2022

rocket --> in trader term, describing the pair.

That means usd/jpy blast north.

meaning yen weaken.

PGH TB 07:51 GMT January 7, 2022

You wrote (re: XAGUSD collapse): "Watch out the famous JPY rocket."

You mean JPY getting stronger or weaker?

Are silver & JPY correlated?

macao win10 06:54 GMT January 7, 2022
energy cycle super bullish

Thats genuine American spirit. LOL

dc CB 01:32 GMT January 7, 2022
energy cycle super bullish

Several months have passed since FOMC members Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan abandoned their posts following a trading scandal that raised questions about senior Fed officials.

Now, Richard Clarida, who is already on his way out the door at the Fed to make room for Biden appointee Lael Brainard, has become the latest senior Fed official to find his way into the ethics officials' rifle sights.

Because according to the NYT, Bloomberg and a handful of other reports, Clarida sold at least $1M of shares in a US-traded stock fund in February 2020 before buying a similar amount of the same fund a few days later, on the eve of a major Fed policy announcement that would trigger an 18-month-plus torrid rally in stocks, bonds and other securities.

Notably, while Clarida's purchase was previously disclosed and reported by Bloomberg News back in October, the initial sale of the fund shares wasn't disclosed until last month, when an amended financial-disclosure form was finally filed with the government. Notably, this amended form was filed several weeks after the backlash to Clarida's colleagues' trades had died down.

And apparently, no journalists had even bothered to notice the amended form for weeks, until the NYT reported on it Thursday.

For the record, the new form showed Clarida sold $1M to $5M of the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor exchange-traded fund on Feb. 24, then invested a similar range in the fund on Feb. 27.

Fed Vice Chair Quietly Covered Up Suspicious Trades Made During March 2020 Market Rout

dc CB 01:24 GMT January 7, 2022
energy cycle super bullish

A federal judge has rejected a request by the FDA to produce just 500 pages per month of the data submitted by Pfizer to license its Covid-19 vaccine - and has ordered them to produce 55,000 pages per month. Assuming there are roughly 450,000 pages, that means it will take just over eight months for the world to see what's under the hood.

Attorney Aaron Siri, who represents the plaintiff in the case, has provided this stunning update via his blog

""""This is a great win for transparency and removes one of the strangleholds federal �health� authorities have had on the data needed for independent scientists to offer solutions and address serious issues with the current vaccine program � issues which include waning immunity, variants evading vaccine immunity, and, as the CDC has confirmed, that the vaccines do not prevent transmission.

No person should ever be coerced to engage in an unwanted medical procedure. """""

Judge Rejects FDA's 75 Year Delay On Vax Data, Cuts To Just 8 Months


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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