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Forex Forum Archive for 02/24/2022

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Mtl JP 23:02 GMT February 24, 2022
russia

brent circa $96, off $101 high
gold circa 1906, off 1974 high

viies do you assess that Jens, the current Secretary-General of NATO, has the personal wherewithal to face down Vlad militarily ?

-

Romania is Nato member.
Nato treaty's relevant articles are 4,5 and 6

Article 5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security

The North Atlantic Treaty Washington D.C. - 4 April 1949

Tallinn viies 22:29 GMT February 24, 2022
war in europe
Reply   
every single company who is buying russian gas or oil is supporting the killing of innocent people in Ukraine.

I hope germans will understand is sooner rather than later.

Tallinn viies 22:19 GMT February 24, 2022
russia
Reply   
sanctions so far are "joke".
germans still financing the war Putin is deciding to take with their payments for gas and oil.

expect russians will take Ukraine in next 48 hours.
then, Romania and batlicts are next.

uk 20:07 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

mistake

Mtl JP 19:38 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt



DLRx 97.08
-
HnS building
and so w/it a trade opp

I am biased
sofar am unlikely to hold dlr short into the week-en

Mtl JP 19:20 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

huh ?
-
"Biden says no plans to suspend Russia from SWIFT" - MarketWatch

Mtl JP 19:03 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

next: vlad's turn ?
-
Here are the sanctions he announced:

- Limit Russia's ability to do business in dollars, euros, pounds and yen to be part of the global economy.

- Stop the ability to finance and grow the Russian military.

- Impair their ability to compete in high-tech 21st century economy.

- US sanctioned Russian banks that together hold around $1 trillion in assets.

He added, "we're also blocking four more major banks. That means every asset they have in America will be frozen."

Biden announces sanctions as Russia invades Ukraine - cnn

Mtl JP 18:53 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

euro 1.1191
-
hunting stops !
odds are puppy chomps up to 1.1255-ish

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

what player sentiment does euro uP about 70pips off its low reflect?

Mtl JP 18:39 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

aping Jay's earlier how to trade geopol risk:
"Geopolitical shocks to the stock market tend to be fleeting, BMO says" on cnbc

Mtl JP 18:25 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

with not transitory inflation (i.e a FED and Yellen errors in expert judgement) at 5% + and now all sorts of materials and energies costs running even more inflationary now, odds are increasing that

1) all western "democratic" gov'ts will have budgetary and peasant unhapiness issues

2) players currently high-odds-pricing only qtr point fed hike will be off their pricing in 3 weeks

Mtl JP 18:16 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

we also have a new euro range if 1.1107 holds

Mtl JP 17:33 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

headlines
and the Q is which has more "attention power" from players:
-
Biden to speak at 1:30 Eastern p.m. on Russian invasion of Ukraine

Mester says still appropriate to hike rates in March, while Ukraine conflict will be a factor in pace of future moves

so chose your poison wisely

Israel MacroMicro 16:17 GMT February 24, 2022
ECB LAGARDE CRUELLA PONZI MAFIA KAFKA

in a law obeying society all those central bankers could be sued for attempted murder of PAR. they really trying to kill you PAR, all of them :)

in hindsight, VIX was a GIFT, right?
also can make little money with longs, right?

Israel MacroMicro 16:12 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

well in capitals regarding cable from a person just posted 0.8500 EUR/USD. we will do the charting needed!

DXY with the WELL cable and EUR/USD 0.8500 of yours, is dozens of % higher than current. worth to check deeper that charts.

Jkt Abel 16:08 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

Where is the reload short level for sub 1.30 cable?

Israel MacroMicro 16:07 GMT February 24, 2022
EUR/USD - multiple time resulations - levels map

you are welcome to check in hindsight the accuracy of the levels that were posted well in advance...

chart inside the thread

swiss frank 16:00 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

Patience and you'll be able to buy it WELL below 1.30

Israel MacroMicro 15:59 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

swiss frank 15:53 GMT February 24, 2022

wow

Israel MacroMicro 15:58 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

who knows, maybe my fantasy about buying cable under 1.3 will turn into reality one day. you can check, when I shared the fantasy and what was the expected time window for the fantasy to fill.

it is sort of terrifying to witness how fast they stand to avoid chaos in the "financial markets" when compared to solving centuries of inequality.

swiss frank 15:56 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

2 year notes at 1.5% looking better all the time....

swiss frank 15:53 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

FWIW Martin Armstrong is very bearish on the prospects for Europe. Next to nil prospect this ends with Ukraine. Low IQ politicians everywhere -> Putin goes for it. Tensions remain high into 2023.

€ may not stop at .8500

london red 15:18 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

troops wont engage russia on non nato soil, ever. or its war. the troops are to help with the millions of ukrainians that will now travel through poland.

Mtl JP 15:10 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

red viis has a reasonable qtn n expectation about the market imo
NATO plans ... what kind of joke is this:
-
"Russian troops descend on Ukraine as NATO plans to deploy extra forces in Eastern Europe"

CNBC’s live blog tracking Thursday’s developments in Russia’s attack on Ukraine

london red 15:04 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump

i doubt it viies. ukraine just announced its lost part of territory north of crimea. thats well west of the seperatist territory and strongly suggests putin is going to over run the whole country unless they concede.

Mtl JP 15:03 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

headline
-
"Traders now see 91% chance of only 25 basis point rate hike from Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch Tool"

Tallinn viies 14:56 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump
Reply   
US stock indexes up +2% after cash market open.
Can we say lows of the day in place?
I was hoping to buy nasdaq100 near previous year low around 12 200.

PAR 14:50 GMT February 24, 2022
ECB LAGARDE CRUELLA PONZI MAFIA KAFKA
Reply   
Lagarde thinking of a rate cut and another emergency bond-buying program to help European governments?

Bangkok KC 14:49 GMT February 24, 2022
EUR/USD collapse is imminent

Euro sell-off nicely as expected.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
Bangkok KC 16:42:02 GMT - 02/18/2022
Active Euro buyers since early December were gone. EUR/USD probably breaks back under 1.1280 soon... and, in this case, it's resuming its downtrend, and this time we can expect even a drop below 1.1120 in the near term....IMHO

Keep selling EUR/USD on rally is a good strategy for next week.

PAR 14:44 GMT February 24, 2022
UKRAINE
Reply   
AS THE CRISIS IN UKRAINE WORSENS, UKRAINE CDS INDICATE A 90% RISK OF DEFAULT.

Tallinn viies 13:11 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
there will no such country anymore as belarous. russian forces all in there also.

helicopter attack near the capital city of European country

Israel MacroMicro 12:55 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

3-2-1 and Biden not Hunter but the daddy to announce deal with Iran so China will move to the cheaper oil from Russia as Iran will start getting full prices from the European dumb.

Israel MacroMicro 12:52 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

the world as Putin wishes will be better place than the Macron narrative, and definitely much better than the narratives of the prime ministers of countries with monarchy/royalty houses within NATO.

Tallinn viies 12:41 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
the same Macron yes.
free world people do not understand how Imperior thinking goes.
fingers crossed they learn it before it is too late

Israel MacroMicro 12:38 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

the same Macron told us that TODAY Putin and Biden would have a meeting?

he also added that sanctions will be according to the severity of Russia's actions. when frogs sing :)

Tallinn viies 12:36 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
French President Macron says sanctions against Russia will factor in the energy sector and will be without weakness

Tallinn viies 12:14 GMT February 24, 2022
pump n pump
Reply   
there is nothing to smooth yet.
move less than 2 standard deviations.
they start to smooth when 5-7 standard devaitons.

GVI Forex 12:03 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

Conditions are such that CBS are likely in to smooth, not reverse the market.

london red 11:28 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

Belgrade Knez 10:33 GMT 02/24/2022
poland has lng import hubs built and is taking us sourced lng. germany has got any yet but is building them. us gas is many times cheaper even after shipping costs. besides the other benefit of cutting russian gas use is cutting their funding.

Tallinn viies 11:27 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
Kremlin says President Putin will decide on how long Russia military operation lasts based on progress and aims; operation designed to pursue aims Putin set out: demilitarisation and de-Nazification of Ukraine

Mtl JP 11:16 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

trading theme:
after "darkness" : light
euro low: 1.1125-ish (Sup)
-
* World leaders strongly condemned Russia’s act of aggression as President Vladimir Putin ordered an attack on Ukraine early Thursday local time.

* U.S. President Joe Biden: “The world will hold Russia accountable.”

* Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba: “An attack on the world order.”

‘Dark day for Europe’: World leaders condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine PUBLISHED THU, FEB 24 20224:37 AM ESTUPDATED AN HOUR AGO CNBC.com staff

Israel MacroMicro 11:10 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

ask Gretha , she knows how to solve energy crisis

PAR 11:02 GMT February 24, 2022
eurusd

Now they want to build a pipeline from Spain to Germany to import US and Qatari gas. Madness.

Tallinn viies 11:02 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
because:
one for all and all for one!


and there is no Merkel around anymore who was able to convience people to do what she want them to do.
usually using pure cash for that.
during the war times you may offer cash but usualy more simple needs prevail. security for example.

Belgrade Knez 10:56 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

Tallinn viies 10:39 GMT February 24, 2022
nobody gives a sh1t in Nato where Germany will get their energy after Russian supplies will be cut.
---------------------------------------------------
so if nobody in NATO cares where Germany will get their energy from, why would Germany cut their gas supply from Russia and take care of NATO interest?

macao win11 10:42 GMT February 24, 2022
Dow
Reply   
Lets see if selling force and stop selling can drag index to 30800-31000 anytime this week?

Tallinn viies 10:39 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
Belgrade Knez 10:33 GMT - nobody gives a sh1t in Nato where Germany will get their energy after Russian supplies will be cut.
this is the situation right now.
they had time to prepare for years and they decided to build a new pipeline. now they are on their own.

Mtl JP 10:37 GMT February 24, 2022
eurusd

the german needs to kick out nuland's neocon gang
decisively and once-and-for-all

Tallinn viies 10:33 GMT February 24, 2022
eurusd
Reply   
the german economy will be hit hardest in Europe as they do not have LNG terminals and most of their energy needs are built on Russian gas. they are buying 40 of Russian gas. after sanctions on Russian gas and oil Germany needs to rethink all their energy planning for the next 10-20 years.
so far their plan was to use gas until green energy solutions built up. this plan does not work anymore.

Belgrade Knez 10:33 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

Tallinn viies 10:26 GMT February 24, 2022
US will force germany to stop buying russian gas. oil export will be cut also as they did with Iranian oil. Germany just can not finance russian agression by buying gas from russia.
otherwise US can not offer their protection to germany anymore
-------------------------------------------------
where they gonna get gas from if they stop buying from Russia? USA? US one is much more expensive than Russian one?
More than 65% Germans do not support break of economy with Russia (heard it this morning on TV), so I guess new German government will think twice before they take any such dramatic economy actions.


Tallinn viies 10:26 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
US will force germany to stop buying russian gas. oil export will be cut also as they did with Iranian oil. Germany just can not finance russian agression by buying gas from russia.
otherwise US can not offer their protection to germany anymore.

Mtl JP 10:24 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

boris' hope
in other words: "have some cookies and good luck"
-
"The Prime Minister said he hoped Ukraine could resist and that Ukraine and its people were in the thoughts of everyone in the United Kingdom during this dark time."

PM call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 24 February 2022

Tallinn viies 10:16 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle
Reply   
99% sure at one stage russian oil and gas export will be sanctioned.
approx 7% of world supply of oil will be cut off.
oil may hit 120 quickly.

macao win11 10:08 GMT February 24, 2022
Ukraine army morale very low
Reply   
Putin is doing charity to help people in Ukraine fighting for a better future.

macao win11 10:01 GMT February 24, 2022
Will Ukraine farce offers nice dips to buy?

Dow 32000 thereabout is nice buy

Mtl JP 09:48 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt



USDRUB 83.83
-
good volatility. but the spread ...

Tallinn viies 09:44 GMT February 24, 2022
unrest in europe
Reply   
naive to think russian attack does not change world order.
China's foreign minister already declared US is responsible for this attack.

Mtl JP 09:42 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle



PAR 08:38 - "worth" ? maybe ask Torria "fvck the EU" Nuland of the neocon element and her husband Robert Kagan (co-founder of The Project for a New American Century fame), his brother Frederick (American Enterprise Institute) and his wife Kimberly (Institute for the Study of War) Maybe if you ask nicely Robert might sign you a copy of his "Of Paradise and Power: America and Europe in the New World" book

or check out her blueprint

Pinning Down Putin How a Confident America Should Deal With Russia By Victoria Nuland July/August 2020

Israel MacroMicro 09:20 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

totally agree with your point PAR

let us look to the end of this "war"... to end with "ceasefire" or "peace agreement", we do not need an academic title in rocket science to know that the "end agreement" to include ALSO clear and definitive commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO.

so yes, why to be at this point as now when you could accept without bloodshed what you going to accept after the bloodshed?

I will not go deeper by naming and showing who exactly within the NATO members is supporting his own economy and the royal powerhouse within his society.

yes, you are right PAR, innocent lives for nothing! - no KGB agenda in my opinion, just 'stay away NATO' as Russian real concern!

PAR 09:13 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

It is a sad story.

london red 08:46 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

PAR, nothing to do with NATO. putin is kgb as u know and they have never gotten over having their old turf carved up. if he takes the whole of the ukraine, then lithuania latvia and estonia are then at risk given that through belarus they will be able to cut off nato support to that region.

PAR 08:38 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

How many innocent lives is a NATO membership worth?

Israel MacroMicro 06:06 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

Putin actually ended the "war" before it started, it takes all of NATO turning lunatic now to escalate beyond the point that Putin wants. this is how I see it.

I see the markets going down more than crashing
that makes 5% under current with indices a GIFT... but, it is only my two cents.

as evidence, ADA

Mtl JP 00:34 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle

US Considering Release From Oil ...
should it not say biden instead of "US", give credit where it is due ?

after all it was biden who killed keystone pipeline from "ally" canada
trump made a mistake when he qualified putin "brilliant"
more like putin thinking biden was brilliant with that cancellation on day one. (for giving putin pricing power)

Mtl JP 00:04 GMT February 24, 2022
mkt

gee ... is this lights out for soldmanyfuks ?

Bloomberg.com
-
Goldman Sachs Wants Its Bonuses Back as Punishment for Jumping Ship
The Wall Street bank is going to great lengths to head off departures with measures like seizing vested pay.

 




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