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Forex Forum Archive for 02/25/2022

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Mtl JP 19:45 GMT February 25, 2022

here is jeff cox with his nickel:

* Economists expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict to trigger higher global inflation but probably not a recession.

* The importance of the two nations as agriculture exporters and producers of elements key to semiconductor manufacturing will exact an economic toll.

* Broadly, though, Russia’s total economic output is a little smaller than New York state’s, while Ukraine’s GDP is about the size of Nebraska’s.

* Markets still largely expect the Fed to begin raising interest rates in March and continue doing so through 2022 and into 2023.

Inflation will go higher, but Ukraine conflict likely won’t halt economic growth in the U.S.

Mtl JP 19:40 GMT February 25, 2022

Jay your Forex 15:16 post is spoken like an old wily FX fox

"U.S. stock gains accelerate on Friday as angst over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gives way to buying"

"Gold ends lower, marks first weekly decline since January on Russia-Ukraine developments"

Mtl JP 19:04 GMT February 25, 2022

priceless (uncredited) picture of EU fin mins prend consternation
about peasants and about "values of liberty.”

“All these measures are going to be expensive, also for us,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said Thursday. “But peace also has a price.”

he sounds like justin when he talks about carbon-based fuels' "pollution"

EU finance chiefs grapple with economic fallout from attack

Mtl JP 18:38 GMT February 25, 2022

sounds like zelensky is sarcastic and bitter

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT February 25, 2022

1:18 ‘This might be the last time you see me alive’: Zelensky reportedly concedes in call with EU leaders that he’s in peril
01:18 Biden spoke with Zelensky Friday morning, White House says
- MarketWatch

Mtl JP 18:25 GMT February 25, 2022

n roubini:
"Putin’s war promises to crush the global economy with inflation and much slower growth"

meets anecdote:
"Dow surges nearly 800 points and aims for best day in over a year as Nasdaq, S&P 500 erase weekly losses as angst over Russia-Ukraine clash gives way to buying"

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT February 25, 2022

Nasdaq uP 1.3%
Dow up 2%
S&P 500 up 1.9%

for some reason

Mtl JP 15:21 GMT February 25, 2022

with three weeks players have still time to adjust their FED rate hiking play

PAR 15:21 GMT February 25, 2022

Unseen amount of US stock buybacks.

Mtl JP 15:18 GMT February 25, 2022

according to Willem H. Buiter (an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University):
"To safeguard its credibility, the Fed must take decisive action. Another drawn-out sequence of 25-bps hikes will not do the job."

Opinion: To stop inflation, the Fed should go big, starting with a 100 basis-point hike in March

GVI Forex 15:16 GMT February 25, 2022
[Forex View] How to Trade in a Politically Driven Market

For those who missed my article, take a look or read again

Political markets are generally difficult to trade as there is often a short shelf life before whatever crisis is dominating is diffused. This suggests going with the flow while the market is on high alert but be aware that the factors driving it can fade quickly.

What complicates the current risks is that markets were already in a fragile state over rising inflation and a pivot to tighter monetary policies by major central banks.

[Forex View] How to Trade in a Politically Driven Market

Mtl JP 15:09 GMT February 25, 2022

conciliatory talks with zelenski ?

I doubt zelenski has the authority to "concilliate" nato's pullback from what - now 10 new members - since when russia agreed to leave east germany... ie. "all those European democracies whose political stability, military contributions, and commitment to NATO solidarity would be assets to the Alliance" (brookings)

GVI Forex 15:05 GMT February 25, 2022

Quiet here is a market that haas moved to the sidelines.

GVI Forex 12:55 GMT February 25, 2022

Pop in risk on

Conciliatory comments from Russia indicating having talks with Ukraine.

Tallinn viies 12:06 GMT February 25, 2022
pump n pump
seems that US indexes formed the lows for this leg. now back up to previous week highs. and then new mont next week and fight for the upside starts.

Mtl JP 11:51 GMT February 25, 2022

odds of FED gang hiking 50bps
currently less than 6%

Mtl JP 10:39 GMT February 25, 2022

heading into NY and last day before the week-end
DLRx 97.16
euro 1.1172
eurchf 1.034 (sleeping)
gold 1908 (a failure)
brent 95.40 (a failure)
us "risk" 4258.50 - looking wish-washi atm

and so I am asking:
do I dare short the dlr here

Mtl JP 10:26 GMT February 25, 2022

central banks must ensure they are resilient
"Due to the systemic importance of real-time gross settlement systems (RTGS), central banks must ensure they are resilient enough to withstand a variety of threats to their security and integrity. These include natural disasters, data corruption, loss of essential services, unavailability of staff and, of course, cyber-crime."

A robust, efficient and low cost RTGS third-site recovery solution

Belgrade Knez 10:07 GMT February 25, 2022
final of football championship will not be held in St. Petersubrg!

Israel MacroMicro 10:01 GMT February 25, 2022

tick another "achievement" by paying your next vacation in st. Berths. I fully accepted that such is the meaning of life for products rolled out "Western World" production line.

we here, we busy to give in secret major portion of our success to those left behind due the system you so admire. choices!

Israel MacroMicro 09:57 GMT February 25, 2022

london red 09:48 GMT February 25, 2022

just read what I shared days ago, the outcome of this war is known before it started, so why they allowed it to start?

why the bloodshed?

who gets served by the bloodshed?! not Putin/Russia !!!

I trust that mindset to deliver great trading results!

got it?

london red 09:52 GMT February 25, 2022

one hell of a chip on your shoulder there bro. hope it doesnt weigh you down in life because they often do

Israel MacroMicro 09:51 GMT February 25, 2022

better we get done here RED

not looking for a pointless conversation with the ones truly trust money (== material) to be the savior of mankind as they were educated in universities their hard working moms and paps financed with saving (in most cases).

you picked the wrong person to approach with your LIMITED HORIZONS !!!

Israel MacroMicro 09:48 GMT February 25, 2022

after what happened in Canada, why not?

the showcase of Canada 2022 made many that still bother to try thinking to rethink 'holy sh!t, is democracy is about multinationals getting their supply of raw materials across borders?'

well fine educated red can add his perspective how great it is to agree with the one controlling the "money" supply. so Pump_and_Pomp became financial culture.

london red 09:48 GMT February 25, 2022

MM, no it was an observation and assessment of the quality and accuracy of your posts. you are talking about the failings or actions of one person while somehow trying to link that to whats happening in the ukraine. its nonsense.
on the wires russia preparing its own sanctions package.

london red 09:45 GMT February 25, 2022

JP, just a question of locking out russia. but there has to be agreement. then they can only to other unsecure methods or bitcoin!

Israel MacroMicro 09:42 GMT February 25, 2022

london red 09:34 GMT February 25, 2022

you turned personal, I guess I shaken your unconscious...

you judge better life according to what schools and universes allowed to exist only after agreement of the royalty preached you and decided what is the "educational" material to brainwash you. same applies to any system existing in this world.

live your life and trust money to be your savior, it will as long you stay within the sovereign borders you "trust", Andrew may confirm.

you went personal, you are educated, I am not a parrot neither a cat. I care about the "facts" needed to create a mindset, and you? == let money save you, it probably will as long you peach for reforms in countries far away from you.

Mtl JP 09:40 GMT February 25, 2022

can SWIFT be brought down ?
for everyone ?

Belgrade Knez 09:39 GMT February 25, 2022

london red 09:28 GMT February 25, 2022
.............. a few months later after the whole country is taken putin will try to install a puppet who declares no nato membership. that is clear and certain........
that's exactly what he said in his speech ..... I was listening live coverage ..... once he secure Ukraine not to be in NATO ever, that's it ..... all other countires surounding Russia are under control already (apart from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, but they are too small to be threaght) so no need to make new moves

london red 09:37 GMT February 25, 2022

JP, us and uk pushing for swift, germans against. all about price of o&g. its bad policy over last ten years. things will change now but dont know if its enough to get germans on board with swift right now.

london red 09:34 GMT February 25, 2022

MM, while under ussr people were queuing all day to buy a banana and couldnt leave their countries. now they live life as they please, working, raising a family, travelling. everyones right.
and no i dont think your extreme, simply you dont say anything intelligent. and thats a regular thing.

Israel MacroMicro 09:33 GMT February 25, 2022

Israel MacroMicro 09:20 GMT February 24, 2022
supercycle: Reply
totally agree with your point PAR

let us look to the end of this "war"... to end with "ceasefire" or "peace agreement", we do not need an academic title in rocket science to know that the "end agreement" to include ALSO clear and definitive commitment by Ukraine not to join NATO.

so yes, why to be at this point as now when you could accept without bloodshed what you going to accept after the bloodshed?

I will not go deeper by naming and showing who exactly within the NATO members is supporting his own economy and the royal powerhouse within his society.

yes, you are right PAR, innocent lives for nothing! - no KGB agenda in my opinion, just 'stay away NATO' as Russian real concern!

Israel MacroMicro 09:33 GMT February 25, 2022

Rothschild, Safra and their camels?

Mtl JP 09:32 GMT February 25, 2022

how secure, how resilient how responsive ?

what is the backup: fax, pigeons ?

london red 09:28 GMT February 25, 2022

ukraine is no longer a sovereign state. its certain to fall within a few days in terms of government control. a few months later after the whole country is taken putin will try to install a puppet who declares no nato membership. that is clear and certain. its now a question of what he does next in terms of other countries. that is the only question.

Belgrade Knez 09:23 GMT February 25, 2022

Putin will not back up just like that without getting agreement with at least guarantee that Ukraine will never be part of NATO ...... everyone knows that so they will negotiate ..... remember he was asking that few months back from NATO and Ukraine, but they refuse to agree to it..... now they will !!!!

Israel MacroMicro 09:21 GMT February 25, 2022

let's start with reforming the British kingdom...

a rapist, sex offender, sick soul destroyed minors, by mistake also a "prince" walks away from justice. this is the true heritage of the "minds" that Putin faces.

reforming ex USSR states with the Anglo-Saxon (Dutch snakes may be added) narrative is like curing a cancer patient with injecting him the HIV virus.

do apologize if I sound too extreme for your liking...

for real, have a great weekend mate !!!

london red 09:14 GMT February 25, 2022

MM, its not about money, its about reforming the former USSR that they believe was taken from them by the west. but those former ussr states have taken their own decisions and forged ties with the west and have since progressed economically. putin doesnt have the right to take those states for himself. with ukraine which is outside nato he knows the west is frozen, but unless he is hiding a life threatening disease he will not try to move on nato nations because the end result will be a destruction of russia as he knows it. nuclear weapons or not, the final move will be made not by him but by nato regardless of the strength of his final move.

london red 09:10 GMT February 25, 2022

Knez, zelensky is taking about a coalition of baltic states. he is not talking to putin while kyiv is under direct attack. it may fall today or tomorrow. but russia will lose many tanks. this is why they are now sending in paratroopers to try to take capital as they are taking many vehicular casualties on the ground.

Israel MacroMicro 09:10 GMT February 25, 2022

red mate, Putin 100% for sure not running this show to add few cents to his own pocket as he may did in the past.

Ahmed knows a little bit of the true facts attached to the background of what is happening now.

good trades! I am off this political topic :)

yes, also enjoy a great weekend !!!

london red 09:06 GMT February 25, 2022

MM, putin might know "his" history but you do not.

Belgrade Knez 09:03 GMT February 25, 2022

london red
yes, I agree, Putin want somebody that he can control and be sure Ukraine will never go to NATO ..... with regards to Crimea, it's people wanna be part of Russia and they said it through referendum .... so Russia got it back what was 1954 taken away from them.....
Zelensky ready to talk.

Israel MacroMicro 09:00 GMT February 25, 2022


Putin knows history, Putin know the reality of Russia AFTER trusting the "democracy warriors" of today being responsible for many millions of dead Russian in the past. Putin is not the bad/sick guy in this story.

of course / imo

Israel MacroMicro 08:56 GMT February 25, 2022

PUTIN/RUSSIA does not give a f*%k about what you allow yourself in Tallinn to trust being the reality. he simply does not trust the Anglo-Saxons (Dutch snakes may be added) when it comes to integrity, to you run daily economical life according to Estonian heritage or actually the Anglo-Saxon propaganda? is he (Putin) right not to trust "them?

london red 08:52 GMT February 25, 2022

Knez, ukraine had putins puppet regime already which was expelled nearly ten years ago. the people threw him out (yanukovych). putin retaliated by taking crimea the same year. now he wants to put in another puppet. up to now nobdy in ukraine has said they will join nato but the people have a right to continue to have nothing to do with russia if they so choose. as they have. but putin is trying to force the issue and turn it into another belarus.

Bangkok KC 08:51 GMT February 25, 2022
EUR/USD collapse is imminent

If we see eur/usd daily close turn back above 1.1280, then cancel this view.

Bangkok KC 16:42:02 GMT - 02/18/2022
Active Euro buyers since early December were gone. EUR/USD probably breaks back under 1.1280 soon... and, in this case, it's resuming its downtrend, and this time we can expect even a drop below 1.1120 in the near term....IMHO

Israel MacroMicro 08:51 GMT February 25, 2022

KNEZ meets my logic for that matter

unfortunately, I assume that comes due to the fact we both experienced real wars as part of our daily lives for a certain period.

Bangkok KC 08:47 GMT February 25, 2022
EUR/USD collapse is imminent

The pressure is clearly on the selling side.

Keep selling EUR/USD on rally for target below 1.1100 in the near term.

Belgrade Knez 08:22 GMT February 25, 2022

Tallinn viies 22:19 GMT February 24, 2022
expect russians will take Ukraine in next 48 hours.
then, Romania and batlicts are next.
as long as Finland, Belarus and Ukraine stays off the NATO, Putin will not have any further action to other countries ..... Last night he offer talk to Ukraine and give two condition to end this war:
1. guarantee that Ukraine will never be part of NATO
2. demilitarize Ukraine
First one seems to be easy achieved, and second one to negotiate

london red 08:15 GMT February 25, 2022

yes this is the imp diff. nato or non nato. the moment even one russian tank moves into a nato country, all nato members are drawn into the conflict. there is no question about this.


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