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Forex Forum Archive for 08/11/2022

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Mtl JP 20:16 GMT August 11, 2022

Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields soared on Thursday after the latest signs of easing U.S. inflation buttressed a more optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the spread between 2- and 10-year rates narrowed to minus 34.1 basis points, a less deeply inverted level than earlier this week.

Markets are pricing in a 59.5% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 50 basis points to a range between 2.75% and 3% at its Sept. 20-21 meeting. The central bank is mostly expected to lift borrowing costs to at least a range of 3.5% to 3.75% by March, according to fed funds futures traders.

By Vivien Lou Chen and Jamie Chisholm

Mtl JP 19:12 GMT August 11, 2022

darn ... they "struggle"
maybe on "doubt" or suddenly getting evans, daly's or kashkarian's "religion"

"Nasdaq, S&P 500 turn negative, rally in stocks on Thursday loses steam"

dc CB 15:56 GMT August 11, 2022

Michael Every of Rabobank

As they used to say back in the Soviet bloc, �We pretend to work, they pretend to pay us.� Nowadays, it's perhaps, "They pretend it�s real data, we pretend to trade it.�

You could hear the champagne corks fly wherever you were yesterday. After all, there was "zero US inflation" in July, as some put it.
And that came after zero US recession, as some also put it, despite two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

Until you recall US midterm elections are coming up. Then you wonder if it is just coincidence, bad/Covid number-crunching, or �convenient� in a way we pretend DM data can�t be, because otherwise we would be EM, and we don�t like to imagine we could be, because: we have higher incomes - as millions struggle to put bread on the table or keep the lights on; �regulations�; �rule of law�; absolutely no corruption; a completely unbiased media only interested in the truth; no politicised judges or civil servants; no business sectors close to politicians; no politicians with tenuous grasps of reality; no back-stage lobbyists; no interest groups; no powerful shady forces; no issues over electoral legitimacy. None of that applies to us!

U.S. Econ Data Make Little Sense, "Until You Recall Midterm Elections Are Coming Up"

Mtl JP 14:16 GMT August 11, 2022

DLRx 104.60
and under t-line Sup
without going into various futures valuations complications what this picture sums up to me is that earlier evans' inflation still �unacceptably high� and that more rate hikes would be needed is not being heeded by players.

which would indicated one or both of two possible choice how get the DLR to find a floor and potentially recover some:

1) more moRE forceful blabla from the FED gang
2) more moRE crap(ier) news from Europe

In the s/t meantime down direction in the dollar still market bias

PAR 12:55 GMT August 11, 2022
Sustained high inflationary pressure in Germany

Inflationary pressures in Germany intensified in July on an EU-harmonized basis. On a year-on-year basis, consumer prices rose by +8.5% in July, compared with an inflation rate of +8.4% in June. Compared to the previous month, the cost of living increased by +0.8% on average.

Excluding the alignment with the European price index, the inflation rate in Germany declined to +7.5% in July from +7.6% in the previous month.

Mtl JP 12:31 GMT August 11, 2022

10-Yr 2.7560
currently risk players laughing with the FED gang

GVI Forex 12:24 GMT August 11, 2022

Markets setting up for a softer PPI.

Mtl JP 11:47 GMT August 11, 2022

diplomacy: some have it. some don't

what's behind "bully"
- feels insignificant
-- feels unimportant and left out, lonely
--- has problem(s) at "home"
---- feels not smart, attractive or worthy enough
----- is jealous (of popularity of another)
------ bullies in group - wants sense of "security"
------- some bullies because of big ego
-------- some want to be center of attention (indispensable fantasy)
--------- sometimes bully is intolerant of difference (race, sexuality, disability or _ _ _ )
the chinese , when travelling around the world in the days vasco de gamma, would offer gestures of food and/or gold when landing on a new beach. the portugese would capture a native, cut off the head and plant it on a astick in the sand with demands to the natives to bring riches else Mtl JP

The US ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, warned African countries last week not to purchase anything from Russia besides grain and fertilizer, or else they could face sanctions. ... "We caution countries not to break those sanctions because then� they stand the chance of having actions taken against them," she added.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns countries subverting sanctions imposed on Russia that they'll face consequences for their actions. April 13, 2022

"You're either with us or against us in the fight against terror." - George W. Bush Nov 2001

"Thomas-Greenfield�s warning demonstrates the US approach of using force to get the results that it wants, which has been backfiring on Washington, and drawing countries closer to China and Russia."

US Threatens African Nations With Sanctions If They Buy Russian Products Other Than Grain - Dave DeCamp

GVI Forex 10:34 GMT August 11, 2022

Next key event is US PPI in about 2 hours, not as important as CPI but is forecast to be lower vs prior month

Memphis Charles 10:33 GMT August 11, 2022

I wonder what that says about her success trading options. It's rather a full-time job

Memphis Charles 10:28 GMT August 11, 2022

I thought the same thing, and had a laugh as well.

Mtl JP 06:12 GMT August 11, 2022

...'Sell My House'...
what is the dope googling 'Sell My House' expecting to get for result : find a real-estate peddling outfit ?

and other than that "the analysis by luxury real estate platform RubyHome reveals that searches for 'sell my house' exploded" what is the "so what" of the "analysis" ?


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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