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Forex Forum Archive for 08/29/2022

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Mtl JP 22:34 GMT August 29, 2022
Analysis: Pain of breaking inflation will reverberate around the globe

respectfully, there next to nothing Analysis - tical by Balazs Koranyi and Howard Schneider; it is more a summary of a bunch of different ideas that were written up in various pieces over last couple of days.

Seems more like a repeat repeat repeat piece, subtle message being that if a theme is repeated often enough by a variety of parrots it must be true.

Psychology on individual's behavior in perceived safety of a crowd: "everybody says so therefore it must be thus".

GVI Forex 22:05 GMT August 29, 2022
Analysis: Pain of breaking inflation will reverberate around the globe
JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug 29 (Reuters) - The message from the world's top finance chiefs is loud and clear: rampant inflation is here to stay and taming it will take an extraordinary effort, most likely a recession with job losses and shockwaves through emerging markets.

Analysis: Pain of breaking inflation will reverberate around the globe

Mtl JP 21:59 GMT August 29, 2022

one more opinion
feel free to use to make a bet:
Fed should hold interest rates steady, and think about cutting rates, former central banker says

Powell�s speech in Jackson Hole was �ludicrous� because it is likely that inflation is on the way down, said David Blanchflower, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and a former external member of the Bank of England�s monetary-policy committee.

�Powell�s job is to insulate people from pain, not cause pain,� Blanchflower said.

�He�s going to create a horrible recession.�

�At the very least, you should be sitting and waiting,� Blanchflower said.

Fed chief Powell�s speech was �ludicrous,� says Dartmouth economist and leading dove

dc CB 20:58 GMT August 29, 2022

dc CB 20:09 GMT August 22, 2022
Jackson Hole: Reply
aka Black Hole 2022-----from which light can't escape.

light OR MONEY

dc CB 19:56 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas


'As long as economic energy storage systems are not established, even proponents of the current direction of Germany�s energy transition will have to admit that reliable conventional power plants will be needed for a long time to come.

The authors also conclude:

The importance of nuclear power plants for security of supply in base-load operation and their and their ability to operate the grid in parallel with renewable renewable energies have been demonstrated. '

Original article at Die kalte Sonne

Swiss group to launch petition to rethink nuclear power plans

Switzerland plans to close its five nuclear reactors following a 2017 decision prompted by safety concerns after the 2011 nuclear disaster in Fukushima, Japan, and has already shut one reactor.

"We cannot do without nuclear power plants," Vanessa Meury, president of the Stop Blackouts committee and the only committee member who is not a politician, told Swiss newspaper SonntagsZeitung.

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT August 29, 2022

(not) making friends with the (re)"greta" crowd

Shell CEO Ben van Beurden says
- expectation of a swift resolution to Europe�s energy crisis �is a fantasy we should put aside.�

sounds more like a hint at new and more profit-making trade opportunities
and screw making friends with greta crowd; use 'em instead to juice moolah

Israel MacroMicro 17:26 GMT August 29, 2022



and add this

Israel MacroMicro 17:24 GMT August 29, 2022



the missing piece of the puzzle?

Mtl JP 17:22 GMT August 29, 2022

one can only wish
cause could is not will so fwiw:
STAVANGER, Norway, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Europe could face several winters of gas shortage as a result of the cuts to Russian supplies, Shell Chief Executive Ben van Beurden told a news conference in Norway on Monday.

Europe's gas crisis could last several winters, Shell CEO says

Mtl JP 17:11 GMT August 29, 2022

whoa haaaaa ... trust my european princes
"resistance is futile. you will be assimilated"
Germany wants EU to cancel national vetoes
- In certain critical areas the chancellor has suggested switching to majority voting

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday called on EU members to abandon the right to veto in favor of majority voting in a number of key areas. Such a move could facilitate the bloc�s future expansion.

Mtl JP 16:55 GMT August 29, 2022

Duh ... another "says economist"
it is the market's fault
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says the market would not have responded so �viciously� last Friday if it hadn�t preemptively priced in �a more dovish Powell.�

The market has lost confidence that U.S. Fed will pause rate hikes, says economist

Mtl JP 15:57 GMT August 29, 2022

DLRx 108.72
fears. fears he says
are supposed drivers of price-action
claims Ronnie Harui that
Asia-Pacific currencies such as the Korean won and the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar in early Asian trade Monday on fears of aggressive monetary-policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

Asia-Pacific currencies weaken on Fed tightening fears

Israel MacroMicro 15:52 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

just read good article on BBG showing breakdown of European energy pricing, the bottom line is that now it is cheaper to drive petrol engine cars than electrical cars. sustainable?

Israel MacroMicro 15:43 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

Knez, rumor says you just signed on a transaction that made you the new owner of Red Star, true?

Mtl JP 13:36 GMT August 29, 2022

EURO 1.0002
to answer my own 11:01 Qtn:
- odds are some market players are going to bet by front-loading on the so-far alleged rate hikes in a race before the ECB decides to declare "recession is here" and time to screw "inflation fighting" with rate hikes

for that dynamic in operation I ll be needing to see euro N of 1.03
till then, I biased and prefer selling rallies

hk ab 13:28 GMT August 29, 2022
it needs an accident......

Mtl JP 13:25 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

PAR 09:17 what is the source of that report ?

what if russian decides to choke off european deliveries for a year or more - who will experience bigger pain: europe or the russian ?

Mtl JP 13:16 GMT August 29, 2022

with reference to EU and ECB, interest rates and "inflation fight" (Forex 00:00)
ecb, with rates at zero, is allegedly stimulating the economy.
and, at that int rate, is far from the neutral rate assessed by ecb to
be 1.5% (plus 1.5 to be clear)

various ECB "expert" PhD economists are estimating (LoL) that by them assessed "neutral rate" should be attained before 2022 rolls over or at max end if Q1 '22

In other words:
feel free to bet on or against them.

Bangkok KC 13:05 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Yes, I agree.

Bangkok KC 12:55 GMT August 29, 2022
BUY EUR/USD on dips

Just closed 1/2 euro long @1.0020 (Fast 90 pips profit)

Bangkok KC 08:45:07 GMT - 08/29/2022
1st [email protected]

Target 1.0110

tokyo boj 12:39 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy
Entry: 138.45 Target: open Stop: later add

soon this will also crash

tokyo boj 12:38 GMT August 29, 2022
euro long
Entry: 0.9939 Target: open Stop: later add

euro long doing ok again

Mtl JP 12:04 GMT August 29, 2022

cruella, mafia, inflation, pain for peasants

the beauty fact of these political idiots is that they - politicians - are surrounding you and me perpetually

The preferable trick (or an obligation) lies in how to identify them and instead of avoiding, running away from or whine about these psychopaths who peddle themselves as well-intentioned (pouring on charm, delight and charisma) but who are cunning, self-serving and manipulative is to learn about their techniques and not confront them but instead how to practically take advantage to PROFIT from their efforts to manipulate and to control the sheep.

It is not even an art. It is what I call Superior Confrontational Psychology - tactics and strategy for profits.

Screw relationship rehabilitation. Screw mutual respect. Yes to Profit.

PAR 11:16 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

A warm winter in Europe would leave Europe with an excess of gas.

European politicians have a long history of fixing prices at record highs with long term contracts and then see
prices collapse.

Mtl JP 11:16 GMT August 29, 2022

ai-eee ... rumors. suspicion.
Mt. Gox rumors panic Bitcoin Twitter as BTC price returns below $20K - Coindesk
Mt. Gox rumors panic Bitcoin Twitter as BTC price returns below $20K
Claims that 137,000 BTC are about to be offloaded on the open market are met with intense suspicion as BTC price volatility returns.

Mtl JP 11:06 GMT August 29, 2022

que esta pasando aqui ?

Mtl JP 11:01 GMT August 29, 2022

Forex 00:00 / re Jamie McGeever piece
with powell anticipation now cleared up do you think that which "ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told her Jackson Hole audience" is not yet, is already or is yet to be come THE dominant profit-seeking driving theme in the matter of price direction in the market ?

Mtl JP 10:45 GMT August 29, 2022

so reports Hannah Miao
Aug. 28, 2022, in WSJ:
Net short positions against S&P 500 futures have recently grown, reaching levels not seen in two years

Investors are stepping up bets on a market downturn, a sign of waning sentiment that analysts say could presage a return to the volatile trading of the first half of 2022.

Net short positions against S&P 500 futures have grown in the past couple months, reaching levels not seen in two years. That means traders are increasing their bets that the index will fall, or at least hedging against that risk. Meanwhile, short interest has picked up in the fund tracking popular technology shares, whose recent declines have signaled that a strong summer rally is stalling out. .../..

Investors Ramp Up Bets Against Stock Market as Summer Rally Fizzles

Mtl JP 10:39 GMT August 29, 2022

POOF! now
come home to daddy

Belgrade Knez 10:24 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

PAR 09:17 GMT August 29, 2022
European gas storage facilities are almost full meaning there is no more need to buy gas.
Storages are full but that is reserve in case Russian stop delivering gas..... now continue to buying for daily use

PAR 09:17 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas

European gas storage facilities are almost full meaning there is no more need to buy gas.

The excessive buying by European caused the exponential rise in gas prices. Not very smart but that's the way it went.

PAR 09:00 GMT August 29, 2022
European Inflation
Too easy monetary policy by ECB and too much QE has been fuelling inflation.

On top of that Lagarde urged Europe to borrow money to spend and distribute and urged European governments to conduct an expansive fiscal policy.

Subsidizing gas prices is making Russia rich and Europe poor as do most sanctions against Russia.

European inflation is caused by an insanely easy monetary policy
(rates at 0% with inflation approaching 10%) and by a very expansive fiscal policy by Europe and European countries not used for investments but used to stimulate consumption.

If Europe wants to reduce energy prices it should either reduce consumption or stop those crazy sanctions against Russia that only hurt Europe and don't help Ukraine.

PAR 08:47 GMT August 29, 2022
EU Natural Gas
Natural gas prices in Europe tumbled more than 12% to below �300 per megawatt hour, following a nearly 40% jump last week, after Germany said its gas storage facilities are set to be 85% full by next month, earlier than the October target.

In spite of the relief, for now, supplies remain scarce and the outlook heading into the winter is still very uncertain. Russia's Gazprom is due to stop deliveries to Europe through Nord Stream for three days starting Wednesday, having already reduced flows through the pipeline to roughly 20%. And Norway, which has overtaken Russia as the biggest gas supplier to Europe in the wake of the war in Ukraine, will curtail its gas exports amid planned and unplanned maintenance at 13 fields and processing plants throughout September.

Also, a historic drought triggered by an arid summer that set heat records across Europe threatens to end energy shipments along the Rhine River while limiting hydroelectric and nuclear power production.

Bangkok KC 08:45 GMT August 29, 2022
BUY EUR/USD on dips
1st [email protected]

Target 1.0110

GVI Forex 08:40 GMT August 29, 2022

UK markets are closed today for the Summer Bank Holiday

Mtl JP 07:04 GMT August 29, 2022

will not last

Bangkok KC 06:41 GMT August 29, 2022
USD/JPY collapse is imminent!

The yen is unlikely to fall further on a real effective exchange rate basis because it is already �very weak�, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said in June, 2022 Since then the JPY had weaken slowly to 139... and fell to 130.xx before rebound.

Overall picture show that the USD/JPY bull is come to the end sooner rather than later.

I prefer to sell more usd/jpy on rally to 140.10(If see) but I don't think that is gonna happen anytime soon.

HK Kevin 06:30 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Israel MacroMicro, let them do their great jobs. May be they are trading in cash accounts.

Bangkok KC 06:27 GMT August 29, 2022
USD/JPY collapse is imminent!

Add short usd/[email protected]
Average short now @137.30

USD/JPY is about to collapse in September....IMHO

hk ab 05:53 GMT August 29, 2022
my first nuke will be 140 with tight stop 140.38.

tokyo boj 04:33 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Israel MacroMicro 04:23 GMT 08/29/2022
ok Boss i can add 140 than avg 139 plus
do not worry
Thanks for kind advice

Israel MacroMicro 04:23 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Entry: Target: Stop:

meaning, no reason to sell 138 handle before 140 prints, 139 handle sell to serve as good quick scalps / imo

tokyo boj 04:23 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Israel MacroMicro 04:22 GMT 08/29/2022

i told you i have small short i can add 139/140

Israel MacroMicro 04:22 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

by the way, make sure yout add add add add add do not turn into WFAK 100% guaranteed trades.

I really cannot understand the sales with 138 handle this week :)

Israel MacroMicro 04:19 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

start counting 24hrs in 40min and leave sell order @ 139.10 for those 24 hrs with 138.65 limit... this is the only safe trade as long 140 did not print :)

I noticed you enjoy scalps :)

tokyo boj 04:13 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

Entry: 138.6 add Target: Stop:

Israel MacroMicro 02:11 GMT 08/29/2022
i have small short so no problem i can add more
here is boj so have enough funds

Israel MacroMicro 02:11 GMT August 29, 2022
sell usdjpy

selling USD/JPY now is a form of taking forced plastic surgical intervention. make sure you have funds aside for pain killers beside a STOPLOSS.

140++ first and then I start thinking about thinking to SHORT and HOLD

good luck !!!

Hk Ab 01:23 GMT August 29, 2022
In Chinese, there�s a idiom: you don�t cry until you see the coffin��

Maybe new version, is you don�t cry until you see the winter�..

dc CB 01:22 GMT August 29, 2022
ECB Policymakers Make the Case for a Big Rate Hike



dc CB 01:20 GMT August 29, 2022
ECB Policymakers Make the Case for a Big Rate Hike

WARSAW/BOGDANKA, Aug 27 (Reuters) - In Poland's late summer heat, dozens of cars and trucks line up at the Lubelski Wegiel Bogdanka coal mine, as householders fearful of winter shortages wait for days and nights to stock up on heating fuel in queues reminiscent of communist times.

dc CB 01:16 GMT August 29, 2022
ECB Policymakers Make the Case for a Big Rate Hike

See new Tweets
Endless Capital
I don�t think most Americans realize how dire the situation is in Europe.

If your utility bill went from $250/month to $2500, discretionary spending would get obliterated. The EU makes up 25% of $SPX earnings.

Corporate earnings will fall off a cliff as the weather cools.
12:06 PM � Aug 27, 2022

Hk Ab 00:10 GMT August 29, 2022
Month end�.. good for exhaustion

GVI Forex 00:00 GMT August 29, 2022

Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever

Pivot? What pivot?

Fed chief Jerome Powell stepped up the fight against inflation in his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, making it clear that there will be no �pivot� to a looser policy stance any time soon.

Powell's 'pain'


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