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Forex Forum Archive for 01/25/2023

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dc CB 22:39 GMT January 25, 2023
Potlatch Level 3: Trading during a World War
WTF do you do:
When you get the news flash that one or more of those New New Super weapons was launched.

Tanks are the land equiv to aircraft carriers----the tools of the last war.
Big hunks of metal that can be vaporized in seconds.

For me---every morning this week I have been astounded at how dangerous it has become. Not trading---living in this wacked out world.

dc CB 22:31 GMT January 25, 2023

Update(1242ET): Biden in the remarks while flanked by his top defense officials unveiled an international tank coalition of nations in support of Ukraine, including that the US will send 31 Abrams tanks.

"Today, I'm announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, the equivalent of one Ukrainian battalion," Biden said from the White House.

"Today's announcement builds on the hard work and commitment from countries around the world, led by the United States of America, to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty and its territorial integrity," Bided continued. "That's what this is about, helping Ukraine protect and defend Ukrainian land. It is not an offensive threat to Russia. There is no offensive threat to Russia. If Russian troops return to Russia � where they belong, this war would be over today."�

Biden Downplays US Tanks In Ukraine As Russia Warns Decision Is "Extremely Dangerous"

PAR 22:00 GMT January 25, 2023

Wir haben es nicht gewusst.

We didn't know it.

dc CB 21:54 GMT January 25, 2023

maybe she'll get a spread in Vogue

PAR 21:53 GMT January 25, 2023

Wir k�mpfen einen Krieg gegen Russland und nicht gegeneinander.

dc CB 21:50 GMT January 25, 2023

from the mouth of the comely "young" german girl

What she said

PAR 21:45 GMT January 25, 2023
German foreign minister says that western allies are fighting a war against Russia.

What did she say?

PAR 21:15 GMT January 25, 2023

Free cash flow crashes buy over $ 2 billion.

Non gaap is fake news

PAR 21:11 GMT January 25, 2023

Shoots higher on non gaap earnings beat.

The shy is the limit

Caribbean! Rafe... 21:03 GMT January 25, 2023

PAR// at what price is TSLA now trading... I made some price projections on it a few months ago. I wonder if those levels were hit because...

Caribbean! Rafe... 20:58 GMT January 25, 2023

Mtl JP 19:19 GMT 01/25/2023


There is more to it than this but I guess the basics below should paint a clearer picture...

Auctions took place today... Today also is settlement day... Many bonds also are nearing maturity as those were issued during/after lockdown when the pandemic was still raging... Many options matured today... We need to hit forthcoming high and lows to solidify megatrends and set the theme for the next decade...

tokyo boj 20:49 GMT January 25, 2023
US Stocks

PAR 19:52 GMT 01/25/2023

right now dji plus 1.8% in jan 2023

i think dow jan close around 32444 to 32888 area

tokyo boj 20:46 GMT January 25, 2023
US Stocks

Sell S&P
Entry: Target: Stop:

PAR 19:52 GMT 01/25/2023

today short higher on close

tomorrow down down down 3/5 %

do not worry
todays move was expected

PAR 19:52 GMT January 25, 2023
US Stocks


You wait half an hour and if the opening trades are not cancelled you know
the market will close higher.

Also if the opening trades are cancelled the market still will close higher.

It is not science, it's an art.

Mtl JP 19:19 GMT January 25, 2023

headline that just crossed my screen:
Treasury yields edge lower as tech earnings disappoint, sparking risk aversion

priceaction says something else

tokyo boj 19:07 GMT January 25, 2023
short stox
Sell S&P
Entry: 4017 Target: Stop: add later

short stox now

dow 33650
jpn225 27388
dax 15088
nasdaq 11750

Mtl JP 19:05 GMT January 25, 2023

"Fed�s Brainard considered for the White House National Economic Council. What does the NEC director do?"

Mtl JP 19:01 GMT January 25, 2023
US Stocks

by what time do you you when a low open has been the low opening ?

PAR 18:58 GMT January 25, 2023
US Stocks
Never sell a low opening. Never.

PAR 18:49 GMT January 25, 2023
We will see a massive rally after Tesla reports a huge earnings beat on a non gaap basis.

PAR 18:42 GMT January 25, 2023
Dedollarization of the world economy
Dedollarization of the world economy leads to a lower dollar which will boost US multinationals profits.

Mtl JP 17:06 GMT January 25, 2023

here is another opp coming up to play a CB
FED on Feb. 1 rate decision

enough time to plan trade tacticals
and enough time to game some short-term oscillations

Mtl JP 16:24 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

debt limit, what debt limit ?
WASHINGTON � The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years ... as it invests billions of dollars to make up for shortfalls ...

Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine - nyt

Mtl JP 16:00 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

here is one ironic levity about "productivity" having reached peak:
Google job cuts hit 1,800 employees in California, including 27 massage therapists - cnbc

tokyo boj 15:29 GMT January 25, 2023
short stox
Sell S&P
Entry: Target: Stop:

stox badly down

made nice money in stox

nasdaq down
dji down

jpn225 down

Mtl JP 15:19 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

yellen (born in 1946) on financial crisis:
�You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we�re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don�t believe it will be,� - june 2017

IF ... by "our lifetimes" she intended her generation and each generation is 30yrs long, then yellen, at 76 is (30+30+16=76) is half way thru "our generation". Take off the 5 yrs since her "hope n belief" and there is 11 yrs left of no financial crisis period.

GVI Forex 15:08 GMT January 25, 2023

BoC says rates now on hold

CAD tumbled on crosses, usd lower elsewhere as a result

Mtl JP 15:07 GMT January 25, 2023

also on deck:
at 13:00est yellen's department will peddling $43bln in 5yr paper

Mtl JP 15:05 GMT January 25, 2023

next expecting macklem to try to talk out of both corners of mouth

the CB turkeys want players to think that they are backwards looking reactionary

Mtl JP 15:01 GMT January 25, 2023

so the 25 hike was priced in ...

Mtl JP 14:58 GMT January 25, 2023

IF they hike 25 points usdcad likely to see 1.33
IF no hike ... rocket
to 1.35

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT January 25, 2023

BoC at top of the hour

last: 4.25%, concensus expectation is for 4.50%

yikyak one hour later from macklem

GVI Forex 14:44 GMT January 25, 2023

Hawkish ECP speak continued

BoC next on deck

swiss frank 13:06 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

JP..... Thanks for reading that link. Me- I don't know. Meaning I don't know. On the one hand it makes a lot of sense. While there are several MAJOR concerns in the global macro economy, one is clearly bank liquidity.

For now its ok. It can even be drawn down without a large basis for concern. The proposal made somewhat sense that if warranted/needed the Fed can pause, and let banks raise rates to attract more capital. As the world knows bank rates have been too low for too long. The next

BIG BIG BIG problem is the debt ceiling. Yellen yeah bla bla bla we can do this and that and that and this. Then do it, and who gives a F if the ceiling gets raised or not. The government can shut, and walk away from cultural dance festival and tree planting funding. Politicos can bicker to the end of time as they will. Maybe the line does get drawn here. Hard core republicans won't vote for the increase unless they're attached to spending cuts. Democrats won't cut spending. Its not in any politicians DNA. So maybe MacCarthy doesn't last. Fine. He's out with no replacement in sight.

Meanwhile nothing moves. The big risk is what happens next? Financial armageddon? Does the ineptitude/inability to find common ground or common sense override the consequences of debt default? Maybe (IMO).

And here's where it gets tricky. The question for markets is where to hide? Govt bonds? Probably not given the risk of going to 0. Cash? Probably not at least beyond FDIC coverage since the events would likely trigger banks falling like dominoes. Stocks and or Corp debt? Maybe. Although only the strong would survive minus some contagion. Currencies? Don't know. The fallout could be a lot worse for non-dollars. Commodities? Yeah if you can hold the physical. Otherwise it's just paper. Private property? Yeah probably. Worst case is you got a place to live. Crypto? Wellllllll.... It's an alternative. Maybe. But buyer beware.
So yeah Janet- What do you got?

Mtl JP 11:55 GMT January 25, 2023

US 10-YR 3.434% -0.033 6:53est

Mtl JP 11:39 GMT January 25, 2023

of us debt limit and yellen prancing in africa
Yellen says debt standoff risks �calamity�

Yellen: GOP demand to link spending cuts to debt limit increase �very irresponsible�

As Yellen woos Africa, skeptics ask 'Is the U.S. here to stay?'

Yellen Criticizes China, Urges Headway in Zambian Debt Talks

Yellen urges Zambia debt restructure after talks with China

Get your own house in order: China tells US to fix its debt problems after Yellen's Africa remarks

U.S. Treasury activates another maneuver to avoid breaching debt limit

Yellen says Treasury will take additional 'extraordinary measures' on debt limit

Yellen calls for urgent action to improve food security, climate resilience in Africa

PAR 10:24 GMT January 25, 2023

Where is all that money laundered?

Mtl JP 10:05 GMT January 25, 2023

You ... would trust Some US and European audit teams ... in ukraine ?

PAR 09:38 GMT January 25, 2023
American and European governments should better track and inspect the taxpayer's money they send to Ukraine.

When you send billions and billions it is to be expected that some corrupt politicians and businessmen will steal part of the money.

Zelensky should first at all try to recuperate that money.

Some US and European audit teams should control the way Ukraine is handling all that money.

It is not for Ukrainian oligarchs partying in Italian and French hotel palaces while their country is at war. It is taxpayers' money and it should be well spend or returned to the taxpayers.

GVI Forex 07:17 GMT January 25, 2023

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

After a strong start to the year, fuelled by hopes that the outlook for the world economy was not shaping up as bad as expected a few months ago, stocks are finally taking a breather.

Marketmind: Running out of breathA

dc CB 06:39 GMT January 25, 2023
The Whole of Europe Turned Into a Battlefield

Kriegspiel is a military simulation played out with wooden blocks on a map.

Its most marked difference from other forms of wargaming is that the players cannot see what the enemy is doing. This is achieved through non-player umpires acting within the framework of a ruleset but who have considerable discretion to decide the "inherent military probability" in a given situation.

The result is an experience uncannily like that of a real life officer in the time of the horse and the musket.


Mtl JP 06:23 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

swiss frank 16:01 - more re link
this , partially, is what the FED - like a laboratory disinfectant - is dealing with:

�We don�t want to work for jerks�: The impact of bad bosses, toxic workplaces and gaslighting on your mental health. (It�s like a dysfunctional marriage.)

Mtl JP 06:11 GMT January 25, 2023
The Whole of Europe Turned Into a Battlefield

some play board games

Rheinmetall AG 223.10 on 01/24/23
52 week range: 88.60 - 227.90

dc CB 00:39 GMT January 25, 2023
The Whole of Europe Turned Into a Battlefield

THE GAME OF STRATEGIC CONQUEST: Betrayals! Alliances! Surprise attacks! In the Risk game, players build an army and lead their troops to glory.
Who will take over the world to win?

300 FIGURES: Includes 5 plastic armies and 5 war crates for easy storage.

Play on-line with GOOGLE App

Mtl JP 00:31 GMT January 25, 2023
US Economy

swiss frank 16:01 - re link

"Money Supply Shrinks for the First Time. What It Says About Inflation and the Economy."

The abouve Qtn is a putz question. As the oceans need shark to keep the gene pool healthy and not allow corpses of dead whales pollute the ecosystems and take over.

CBs for the last 14 were so accommodating. They allowed legions of awful VCs to fund absolutely abhorrent tech companies while allowing corporate raiders to pile cheap debt and destroy brands at a fast rate. To me the list of dead unicorns is encouraging. to others tragic.

What is left is rotting corpses of corporate greed that no amount of financial engineering can save while keeping inefficient non profitable businesses looking for taxpayer handouts. I can only speculate what the FED gang thinks of Biden / Yellen gov't meddling in US entitlements� a $1.7 trillion budget with a 7,000 page brick of freebies for the vapid congress constituencies.

In the meantime VCs are sitting on $300 Billion of cash not deployed, like if looking for the next unicorn is the only thing they know how to do or forcing boards to keep doing stock buybacks.

I am hoping the FED is not really worrying about the financial well being of the big banks but limiting their ability to keep funding badly run companies that keep overpaying under performing employees and making things more expensive for the peasants.

If tech cos shed 200,000 employees, I hope the FED will start looking at ways to measure not so much solvent clients who are up on their loans but more a measure of their profitability and their deteriorating balance sheets. I never see enough of what CBs do besides rating the kind of debt the banks own. If a bank owns enough AAA sh.t , they don�t bother digging. That was stupid in 2008 and not much smarter today. Sofar not many really really really rich economists out there.

FED needs to be agent of change: it needs to purge lazy entitled fukks and needs to revive respect for fairly rewarded work. IMO that is why it needs to stick to 5.25/50% (and more if they detect market disrespect) rate AND it needs to keep it there longer than all the lazy and inefficient one are able to withstand.

Mtl JP 00:04 GMT January 25, 2023
The Whole of Europe Turned Into a Battlefield

GD $235.49 As of 4:00pm ET
Phebe should be good for $25mio/yr +


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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