Thursday January 7, 2010 - 03:52:40 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 07-Jan-2010 - 0340 GMT
The Dow (10573.68) and the Nasdaq (2301.09) closed flat yesterday despite signs of recovery in the service industry. The ADP employment report however suggested that the unemployment rate to be announced tomorrow might increase from 10% to 10.1%. The Dow faces stiff Resistance near 10650-10700. Only on a break past this, we might see Dow continue to remain bullish for the first half of 2010.
The Asian indices are also trading flat. Having trading strong over the last few days, the Asian indices may consolidate a little over today/ tomorrow before staging a further rise next week. The Sensex (17701.13) had risen marginally yesterday after trading strong through most part yesterday. Upside beyond 18000 is being resisted by the Trendline Resistance on the weekly candles. To see the chart of Sensex, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle
Crude (83.02) has risen sharply and closed above 83 yesterday, thereby closing higher for the tenth consecutive day. Though the EIA's data release showed an increase of 1.3 millon barrels in the US Crude inventory, the cold weather which is expected to keep high demand for heating oil and the weaker dollar supported the prices to remain higher. As mentioned earlier we might see a rise towards 85-87 in the coming days/weeks. On the downside Support is seen at 81.20. To see the Support on the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1134.20) is continuing its upmove. The weaker dollar and the hopes of economic recovery is supporting the price rise. We may expect a rise towards 1150-60 in the coming days. Support is seen at 1122.
The Euro (1.44) rose to 1.4445 overnight after a dip to 1.4285 in the European session yesterday on news that the EU will not bail out Greece. Many obituaries have been written about the Euro since the time it has been launched, but it has both survived and thrived. It bounced again from just above the 200-day MA yesterday and might well climb higher in the weeks ahead. Dollar-Yen (92.30) should be ranged between 91.50-93.00 for a couple of days, with an immediate upward bias. Note, though, that 93.25 is a crucial Resistance. The Aussie (0.9228) has continued to move up on fresh risk-taking and is starting to look very good for the longer term.
The Pound (1.5995) remains weak, trading below a crucial Resistance at 1.6120. Dollar-Swiss (1.0280) is looking relatively weak, reflecting the strength in the Euro and has chances of dipping towards 1.0150 next week.
USD-SGD (1.3934) has dipped further today to a low near 1.3915, the 10th straight day of fall. The Korean Won (1133.20) continues to post fresh 12-month highs. Some Support may be there for the Dollar near 1118. Dollar-Rupee fell to and closed at a low of 45.84 yesterday, very close to the Oct-09 low of 45.79 on news that a Chinese agency has suggested a 10% revaluation in the Yuan. A break below 45.80, if seen, can take the Dollar down towards 45.50 as well.
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.25%. The yields on US Treasuries surged for the farther end of the curve. The yields on 2Y and 10Y Treasuries were quoting flat and 7 bps up respectively at 1.01% and 3.83% respectively as the US prepares to auction 10Y and 30Y Treasuries next week.
Dec Australia Trade Balance
...Actual A$ -1.70 Bln...Previous A$ -2.08 Bln
12:00 GMT BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50%...Previous 0.50%
10:00 GMT EU Retail Sales
...Expected 0.0%...Previous 0.0%
10:00 GMT EU Biz Climate
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 69...Previous 74
US ADP Emp
...Actual -84K...Previous -145K
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."