Demand for Commodities Falls as Dollar Strengthens
The U.S. Dollar erased early overnight losses and is now
trading higher after China
shocked the Forex markets with a surprise hike in interest rates. Chinaâ€™s
move to curb excessive lending and curtail price increases drove traders into
lower yielding, safe haven currencies.Chinaâ€™s central
bank sold 3-month bills at a higher interest rate for the first time in 19
weeks.This news is expected to put
pressure on commodity and stock prices today.
This morningâ€™s key report is the U.S. Weekly Initial Claims
Report.This is the second of three job
related reports this week. Last weekâ€™s report showed initial claims at 432K.
Economists have pegged this weekâ€™s range at 420 to 470K with the consensus at
Equity markets are under pressure because of the news from China.Commodity related stocks are putting the most
pressure on stock prices.In addition,
institutional and mutual funds are expected to remain absent ahead of
tomorrowâ€™s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report.
Treasury futures are trading lower but inside of their
recent ranges.Trading is expected to be
light ahead of tomorrowâ€™s employment report.The current range for March Treasury Bonds is 114â€™16 to 116â€™05.March Treasury Notes have fallen into a range
between 114â€™28 to 116â€™08.
February Gold is under pressure overnight because of the
stronger Dollar. The current chart formation suggests a possible pull-back to
$1108.10 - $1100.34.Downside momentum
will depend on how strong the Dollar gets.The main trend is still up, however, with $1151.30 a key objective.The overnight weakness is profit-taking and
is not expected to lead to a change in trend unless the Dollar Index breaks out
March Crude Oil could be under pressure as traders are
dumping commodity related contracts because of the rate hike in China.By raising interest rates, China hopes to
curtail excessive lending practices and cool off the economy.Traders expect a drop in demand for crude
oil, leading to the overnight weakness. Technically, this market is vulnerable
to the downside with potential targets at 78.80 and 77.56.
Support continues to erode for the March British Pound as
this market remains top heavy. Overnight selling pressure took out weak longs
who were trying to establish support at a retracement zone at 1.6036 to 1.5988.
If selling pressure continues, the most obvious downside objective is the
recent bottom at 1.5825.
This morning, the Bank of England is expected to leave
interest rates at 0.50% while leaving its asset purchase program intact.The surprise would be a change in its
quantitative easing program.
Trumping the BoE meeting is the heated debate over the
budget deficit.Prime Minister Gordon
Brown and Conservative opposition leader David Cameron are currently engaged in
a heated discussion on how to handle the growing budget difficulties.
The March Euro weakened overnight as demand for higher risk
assets dropped following the rate hike in China.At this time, the Euro is stuck in a range
between 1.4215 and 1.4483.Prices are
currently hugging the retracement zone of this range at 1.4350 to 1.4319.
Bearish comments from the new Japanese Finance Minister
helped trigger a break in the March Japanese Yen.Overnight NaotoKan
said he wanted to see a weaker Yen.This
announcement is leading traders to believe Japan may be more inclined to stem
any sharp rise in its currency.Kan feels that his job
will be to keep the Yen at an â€śappropriate levelâ€ť.His job will be to keep up interest in
Technically, the March Japanese Yen should remain weak as
long as the downtrending Gann angle at 1.0718 remains intact.Based on the main range of .9876 to 1.1774,
traders should look for a retracement to 1.0825 to 1.0601 over the near term.
The stronger Dollar is helping to pressure the Swiss Franc.
Current price action suggests the formation of a daily closing price reversal top
in the March Swiss Franc.Based on the
short-term range of .9522 to .9768, traders should look for a minimum retracement
to .9640 - .9612.
The March Canadian Dollar is weakening ahead of the U.S.
opening.The current chart set-up
suggests a possible closing price reversal top at .9716.The first downside objective is .9571.Weaker gold and crude oil prices could trigger
an acceleration to the downside.
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