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Tuesday January 12, 2010 - 09:31:36 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 12/01/2010Forexpros Daily Analysis Jan 12,
Fundamental Analysis: Core Retail
Traders of USD await the publication of the Core Retail Sales
The Core Retail Sales is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by
retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in
the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and
also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the
US economy .
A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict a reading of 0.30%,
down from the previous 1.20%.
The Euro did not succeed in its first attempt to break the
trend line we talked about yesterday. And also, the price did not move all too
much, leaving yesterdayâ€™s Asian session top 1.4531 as the important resistance
to determine if this line is able to create another reversal, or if it will be
broken this time, letting the price fly. The support is at 1.4485. We will be
waiting for a break of either of them to determine short term trend. IF the
resistance 1.4531 is broken, the Euro will gain a lot of strength, targeting
1.4625, and the important Fibonacci level 1.4678. If the support at 1.4485 is
broken, it would indicate that this line has probably created another reversal
similar to the one we saw last week, ideally targeting 1.4428 & 1.4365.
â€¢ 1.4485: important previous resistance close to last
â€¢ 1.4428: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short term.
Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€¢ 1.4531: Asian
â€¢ 1.4625: Nov 3rd low.
â€¢ 1.4678: Fibonacci 50% for the
We will maintain a
negative bias towards this pair, and it is enough to take a look at the attached
chart to know the reason why. Dollar-Yen is currently trading below the rising
trend line on the hourly chart, and it is vulnerable to a big drop. We explained
in the last two reports the importance of Fridayâ€™s closing, and said that
closing above or below 93.35 leads to completely different readings: a negative
one and a positive one. The closing price came clearly below 93.35 (Fridays
close 92.62), which can be read without hesitation as a negative closing. Today,
we will place our focus on the broken trend line which is currently at 92.40,
and we will take a negative bias towards this pair as long as we are below this
most important resistance for the time being. Support is at 91.70. Breaking the
resistance 92.40 will be surprising to us, and will give the needed strength to
reach areas beyond 94, most important of which are 94.05 & 94.62. While a
break of the support 91.70 would open the way to a drop towards 90.76 &
â€¢ 91.70: the moving average SMA100 on the
â€¢ 90.76: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 88.91 to
â€¢ 89.79: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from 87.35 to
â€¢ 92.40: the retest level for the broken
trend line on the hourly chart.
â€¢ 94.05: Aug 28th high.
â€¢ 94.62: Jan 6th
---Forex trading analysis by Munther Marji for Forexpros. See Forexpros for World
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