User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday January 19, 2010 - 18:30:51 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - It ain’t over ‘til it’s over…

It ain’t over ‘til it’s over…


When it comes to financial markets (asset prices and FX), the economy and the policy response, I feel like a sailor at sea in a fog.  My compass tells me port is in one direction, while my sense tells me it is another direction.  Maybe this is a metaphor for the markets more generally – the move up in equity prices and some risk assets (commodities and anything BRIC) reflects the collective sense of the market and is steering the ship, ignoring the compass. 


Pardon me while I indulge in some assertions of my own...or what I see on the compass.


-          The policy response to date has generated a wall of liquidity that has succeeded in driving up risk asset prices, while saving large financial firms with unlimited zero cost of funding (the ticket to recapitalization).  But the fix for the financial system is no fix at all as the financial system (as bank lending and money supply show) is not performing its primary function in a meaningful way…creating credit for households and firms.  Fiscal stimulus has enabled cash starved state and local governments to keep job rolls filled mainly.

-          However, the policy response from the Fed and Obama administration has failed to do much to get private sector activity going…this is best seen in levels of employment and economic activity (not growth rates which are off very depressed levels).  If the US private sector is not growing at a rate and from a level to generate rising income and employment, then I do not have a lot of faith in a global recovery much less a US recovery apart from new normal stagnation to very modest growth. 


-          Firms at the end of the day invest to add capacity and this happens when there is evidence and confidence that revenues are rising or will rise.  I see little evidence of firms reporting levels of revenue gains that favor firms adding to capacity.  Firms have done an excellent job at trimming employment rolls and cutting costs (demanding give ups in supplier pricing) to support profitability.  Yes at the risk of sounding like many skeptics, this is not a path to sustained profitability or a large positive impulse from I in the C + I + G + X equation. 

-          Households are in far worse shape than firms for the most part, struggling under huge hits to wealth and for the unemployed, income.  Households are in no position to drive consumption – trimming spending is a priority for most families and this condition is unlikely to change ahead.  Increasing savings and paying down debt is the new normal for the US consumer… now known as the US saver. 


Double Dipping


-          Private sector activity is a necessary and sufficient condition for a sustain recovery and simply put I fail to see any rebound in private sector activity in the foreseeable future capable of sustaining US much more global recovery.  Moreover, central banks are beginning to remove the wall of liquidity that has succeeded in driving up risk asset (prices).  While we are some way from the Fed raising the cost of funds for the banks, market rates are very likely nearing a major shift upward reflecting reduced official support for fixed income securities (Gilts in the UK, Agency MBS in the US).  And this is coming at a time when governments and firms are rushing to issue new debt to fund massive deficits (governments) or to get in ahead of the coming jump in market rates.  Higher market rates ahead (including steeper government yield curves) will restrict private sector activity even more.  Yes the US Treasury now has the authority to fill in for the Fed in the GSE market once the Fed exits in March (assuming it does), but I think markets will be far more skeptical of Treasury support for Fannie and Freddie than Fed support.  And US federal government bailouts for cash strapped state governments seems all the more likely (as does an EU bailout for members like Greece – PIIGs). 


-          Any chance of a new massive fiscal stimulus in the US may well be shot down if not already by the results of the Massachusetts vote today on the Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy…it may well go to the Republican candidate which for many will be viewed as a referendum on Obamanomics…in favor of less government not more.  It would also make life more difficult in the Senate where a 60 vote majority is needed to prevent filibustering (minority can block key legislation with this stalling tactic).  More gridlock in Congress may appeal to some, but if you think the only game in town for growth is the government, then gridlock takes away from this source of positive GDP.  And a loss of the super majority for the Democrats in the US Senate does not make tax cuts any more likely ahead, it just makes tax hikes less likely and if anything all else being equal probably means wider deficits.


-          A future of massive debt issuance largely from the government and increasingly from firms facing less friendly bank lines of credit could be in for a major wake up call…a “debt “crisis.  I am not suggesting the bloss of AAA rating for US, as if this would mean much, nor failed auctions, but simply a much higher borrowing cost coming when private sector activity is weak…the road to a spike in market rates and the double dip.


Lights out for bonds and equities…dollar and yen safe havens


-          My compass leads me to a double dip and another large decline in asset prices…real estate, commodities, equities, EM and spike in risk aversion which should see the dollar and yen benefit as safe havens much as they did through the credit crisis in the second half of 2008.  If I had to bet on when, look for this crisis to unfold as the Fed moves more clearly on withdrawing QE and ultimately conventional policy stimulus in the next several months.


David Gilmore




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
Managed Forex Accounts
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2019 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105