The U.S. Dollar is down against a basket of currencies
overnight as global investors assess the impact of President Obamaâ€™s proposal
to limit trading by financial institutions. The early read is that investors
feel the proposal is Dollar negative and in the long-run may discourage
investors from buying U.S.
So far the reaction has been mild, highlighted by light
position evening. Traders may also be using this proposal as an excuse to take
profits following a strong surge in the Dollar and amid overbought conditions.
Trading may not be a volatile as Thursday as foreign central banks assess
Obamaâ€™s proposal while working on banking regulation plans of their own.
The EUR USD is trading better. Oversold conditions and
position evening following the U.S proposal to curb trading by financial
institutions are the primary drivers behind the rally.A persistent rumor that the European Union
may lend Greece
money to shore up its budget deficit helped limit losses yesterday, and may
still be in the market today. An agreement by the EU and Greece is
likely to trigger a massive short-covering rally which could send this currency
to 1.4340 rather swiftly.
The Obama proposal could not help the GBP USD which fell
once again overnight. A report that U.K. retail sales grew at a slower
pace than forecast is helping to weaken the British Pound overnight. At this
time, the Pound is plowing through minor retracement points and holding a level
at 1.6108.A break through this price is
likely to trigger an acceleration to 1.6071.
The USD JPY is weakening further following yesterdayâ€™s
closing price reversal top. Downside momentum is building which could send this
pair to a major 50% price at 89.30.President Obamaâ€™s plan to curtail trading by financial institutions is
making lower yielding assets more attractive to the benefit of the Yen. The
move in the Yen is likely to draw a stern comment from the Bank of Japan which
favors a weaker currency.
Downside pressure in on the USD CHF following yesterdayâ€™s
closing price reversal top. The combination of overbought conditions and less
demand for the Dollar is helping to apply the pressure. The slightly better
Euro is also helping to aleve some of the pressure on the Swiss National Bank
to intervene. The chart pattern suggests a move to 1.0312 is likely over the
Despite calls for a weaker Dollar, the USD CAD continues to
rally. Currently this market is on the bull side of a 50% price at 1.0484 and
testing a .618 level at 1.0546.A
breakout over this level could trigger an acceleration to 1.0600.
The new proposal by President Obama to eliminate trading by
financial institutions is helping to support the AUD USD overnight. Traders
also feel that the break this week triggered by Chinaâ€™s move to tighten its
monetary policy may have been overdone to the downside. Technically, this pair
is trying to establish support inside of a retracement zone at .9031 to
.8961.A closing price reversal bottom
is possible if the Aussie can finish higher. The charts indicate the possible
upside objective is .9174.
Technical factors may be contributing to the possible
bottoming action in the NZD USD. Oversold conditions coupled with the
possibility that U.S.
assets may become unattractive if Obamaâ€™s proposal to limit bank trading grows
legs. Key support comes in at .7065. On the upside, .7150 is resistance.
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