equity markets could feel downside pressure if President Obamaâ€™s plan to end
trading by financial institutions becomes a law. Investors feel this proposal
will have a negative impact on bank earningâ€™s which could weaken their stock
prices. In addition, the proposal is making the Dollar less attractive.
Technically, the March E-mini S&P 500 changed the trend
to down on the daily chart with its move through 1109.75. A retracement level
at 1105.00 stopped the slide, however. Holding this level could trigger a
retracement rally to 1126.00. A break through 1105.00 could send the market to
1100.00 then 1095.00.
Demand for safety is helping to lower yields and boost the
March Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes. The March Bonds penetrated a swing top
at 119â€™08 but failed to attract follow-through buying. This market is currently
trading inside the retracement zone of the 123â€™00 to 114â€™16 range. This zone is
at 118â€™24 to 119â€™24. Profit-takers could come in if stocks begin to strengthen.
February Gold is still trading down despite the weaker
Dollar. It looks like it will take a significant break in the Dollar to trigger
fresh buying or a short-covering rally.Short-term support is at 1086.60. Resistance is at 1108.70.News that China may cut back on demand and
Obamaâ€™s proposal to limit bank trading are weighing on trader decisions.
March Crude Oil continued its decline overnight as traders
dumped higher risk assets. The news that China may begin tightening its
monetary policy which could lead to less demand for crude oil is weighing
heavily on this market.
The U.S. Dollar is down against a basket of currencies
overnight as global investors assess the impact of President Obamaâ€™s proposal
to limit trading by financial institutions. The early read is that investors
feel the proposal is Dollar negative and in the long-run may discourage
investors from buying U.S.
So far the reaction has been mild, highlighted by light
position evening. Traders may also be using this proposal as an excuse to take
profits following a strong surge in the Dollar and amid overbought conditions.
Trading may not be a volatile as Thursday as foreign central banks assess
Obamaâ€™s proposal while working on banking regulation plans of their own.
The March Euro is trading better. Oversold conditions and
position evening following the U.S proposal to curb trading by financial
institutions are the primary drivers behind the rally.A persistent rumor that the European Union
may lend Greece
money to shore up its budget deficit helped limit losses yesterday, and may
still be in the market today. An agreement by the EU and Greece is likely to trigger a
massive short-covering rally which could send this currency to 1.4340 rather
The Obama proposal could not help the March British Pound
which fell once again overnight. A report that U.K. retail sales grew at a slower
pace than forecast is helping to weaken the British Pound overnight. At this
time, the Pound is plowing through minor retracement points and holding a level
at 1.6108.A break through this price is
likely to trigger an acceleration to 1.6071.
The March Japanese Yen is strengthening further following
yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. Upside momentum is building which
could send this pair to a major 50% price at 1.1273.President Obamaâ€™s plan to curtail trading by
financial institutions is making lower yielding assets more attractive to the
benefit of the Yen. The move in the Yen is likely to draw a stern comment from
the Bank of Japan which favors a weaker currency.
Upside pressure is on the March Swiss Franc following
yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. The combination of oversold
conditions and less demand for the Dollar is helping to apply the pressure. The
slightly better Euro is also helping to aleve some of the pressure on the Swiss
National Bank to intervene. The chart pattern suggests a move to .9701 is
likely over the short-run.
Despite calls for a weaker Dollar, the March Canadian Dollar
continues to weaken. Currently this market is on the bear side of a 50% price
at .9510 and testing a .618 level at .9461.A breakout under this level could trigger an acceleration to .9430.
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