European credit-related woes dominated market news last night, hurting risk markets in Europe and the US. Moody's weighed in to the Portugal discussion with its own warning shots regarding a sovereign credit rating downgrade, following Fitch's comments a few days ago. S&P said it no longer classified the UK as a low-risk banking system. And in new twists to the Greek story, Le Monde reported that France and Germany were considering a bailout, which was later refuted by those governments, the IMF said it was ready to help, and the Greek PM denied they approached China for funds, as well as blaming the blowout in bond yields on speculators. The Greek 10yr government bond yield reached 396bp over its German counterpart, a level last seen in 1998 during the LTCM crisis. The Eurostoxx index closed down 1.8%, and the S&P500 is currently 1.1% lower. Commodities are again lower, copper down 3.9% and breaking the 2009 trendline. US 2yr treasuries caught a safe haven bid and shed 5bp, the 10yr note gaining 2bp. The 7yr auction went well.
The US dollar was bid during the European and US sessions to August 2009 levels. Strong Eurozone confidence readings could not support the EUR which fell a cent to around 1.3950. GBP was hurt by S&P's comments, dropping quickly from 1.6250 to 1.6125, where it rests. Safe-haven yen fared well, from 90.50 to 89.50.
AUD, which had bounced to 0.9048 early Europe before the negative views, dropped back to recent lows around 0.8940.
Similarly, NZD's bounce to 0.7140 was completely retraced to 0.7040. AUD/NZD was stable between 1.2660 and 1.2700.
US durable orders posted an insipid 0.3% gain in December, weaker than even the lowest forecast in the Bloomberg survey of economists. The big surprise was the further steep fall in aircraft orders which contrasts with Boeing data showing a 500% increase last month. That will probably get captured in the January orders report. Defence fell 2.8%, its third consecutive decline. Other detail was more positive, including the back to back rises in core capital goods in November and December: that component has risen in three of the past four months, suggesting some restoration of momentum in business investment. A much slower pace of inventory rundown and the solid shipments data are also consistent with what we expect to be a solid 4% annualised pace of GDP growth in Q4, to be reported tonight.
USChicago Fed national activity index falls from -0.39 to -0.61 in Dec. The CFNAI compiles 80 or so data releases each month into one indicator of national economic performance. It was quite a bit weaker in December, no surprise really given recent housing, jobs, manufacturing and other data.
US initial jobless claims fell just 8k to 470k last week, after the new year back-log jump of 34k in the prior week. This leaves claims higher in late January that was the case earlier in the month, but at least some of the late January claims relate to job losses that took place around new year or in late December. Given that the monthly payrolls survey is taken in the week of the twelfth of the month, this late January blip in claims is indicative of some job losses that will be captured in the January payrolls report. We remain comfortable with our forecast of a -40k payrolls decline.
Japanese retail trade improved in Dec but undershot expectations. Nominal sales fell 0.3% from a year ago in Dec. That compares to a 1.1%yr decline in Nov and the market forecast of +0.3%.
European confidence surveys all improve in Jan. Once again all of the Euroland confidence surveys continued to climb, though in the case of consumer confidence the rounded number was unchanged at 16.
German unemployment rose 6k in January, again understating the extent of weakness in the labour market due to survey methodology changes and the short working scheme which has enabled otherwise unemployed people to work part-time.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook today: Corrective, albeit shallow, rallies did finally occur yesterday, neutralising the short-term (hourly charts) oversold conditions. Support for AUD remains around 0.8910-40, and for NZD is 0.7030-40. Watch for Bernanke's reconfirmation vote in a few hours, if successful, to support the currencies. RBNZ's Bollard speaks on monetary policy at NZT.
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts
Mon 27 May 2019 AAGB/US- Holiday Tue 28 May 2019 A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller Wed 29 May 2019 A 08:55 DE- Employment AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision A 18:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 30 Mar 2019 AAEZ/CH- Holiday A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 31 Mar 2019 AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.