User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Monday March 1, 2010 - 21:49:23 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - UK Credit Repricing Overdue

UK Credit Repricing Overdue


The sell-off in GBP today is nothing short of eye popping.   While the casual causality displayed in the financial press in explaining the dive in the pound and rise in Gilt yields was predictable.; weekend polls showing a dead heat between Labour and the Conservatives (hung parliament) and a M&A deal (Prudential of the UK buying AIG’s HK business for $35.5bln with mostly a cash offering.  Seems perfectly sound on the surface however there is nothing new in the opinion polls (pointing at hung parliament for weeks) and who in their right mind believes the Treasurer at Prudential is in the market now buying USD for GBP to the tune of $25bln? 


Sterling is down because the EU has moved ever closer to guaranteeing Greek debt so the government there can get some much needed financing (issue debt at a less than usurious rate) and avoid default.  With a life vest apparently on Greece, and sovereign risk the main trading theme of 2010, it is natural that the market move to UK credit concerns as the lifeline for Greece surely would be offered to the more compliant of the recalcitrant EMU states like Portugal and Spain (though the scale of any bailout rises proportionately with the size of the economy and problem).  After all the UK has a AAA rating and is borrowing at rates closer to a AA than a AAA credit.  Since when do we have to wait for a downgrade on UK to sell the currency and Gilts? The rating agencies’ track record is poor even on timely sovereign credits ahead of crises in the past like Asia, Mexico, Russia and Brazil


Don’t get me wrong, UK sovereign risk is not Greece sovereign risk and the two do not belong in the same boiling cauldron while hungry speculators await the dinner bell (kidding – banks equally behind the run up in CDS on weak credits s they cover counterparty risk in credit lines and derivatives to the likes of Greece.  But there is room for markets to adjust risk in light of large and growing UK deficits, still moderate growth and the potential for political gridlock (anyone that says gridlock is good for markets ought to be exiled from the financial markets). 


While markets priced in lots of extra risk for the UK today (and recovered from worst levels) there should be scope for more ahead (it’s a long wait until the May election – not yet officially called but odds makers are going with early May), especially on levels for the pound (I like retest of the January 2009 low at 1.35).  And there is scope for the 10-yr Gilt yield to rise to 4.50-65% on elevated sovereign risk.  Also look for more movement in UK CDS (outward or the cost of insuring against default rises).  Assuming regulators don’t crack down on CDS OTC market (see fed statement today on efforts by the Street to make the market more transparent – fear of god is in this market as some regulators and lobbyists want the Congress to move it all to an exchange) we think CDS spreads in the developed world are too low and conversely too high in the developing markets and see convergence here ahead.


I also think CDS on US municipalities against some developing sovereign CDS makes sense as well…mini-Greek events lie in wait here with the federal government of the good old USA providing the backstop in the face of funding crises.  And in due course CDS on USA has loads of scope to move outward, though this trade will require real patience and more evidence of a double dip recession or even L-shaped “recovery” to unfold. 


Until then I still like the USD against most currencies, though downside in CAD should be limited (even MXN trading more like a shadow currency along the lines of CHF to the EUR).  But I also sense that to see the breakdown in cable spread to EURUSD and USD index (take out the Feb 19 low and high respectively) we need to see US stocks dive and this trade is elusive.  I see waxing and waning of correlations, but for the really big market moves in USD, stocks, commodities and UST, we need to see very tight correlation and missing in a number of the large moves up in the dollar since early February has been a marked decline in stocks.  And even as wrong as I have been on stocks to date, I still hold on to the view that flat or weak private sector economic activity in the US and globally is not a supportive backdrop for riskier asset prices like stocks.  And as the Fed begins to turn down the liquidity spigot even at the margins…the message should be clear…another key prop for risk assets (abundantly cheap liquidity) is not going to be a permanent state ahead and should assure a large sell off in risk assets like stocks and commodities ahead.


David Gilmore




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
Managed Forex Accounts
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2019 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105