20:00 GMT- Aug 5 (global-view.com) There were no major surprises from the ECB and BOE policy announcements on Thursday. Both kept key benchmark interest rates steady, as expected. Details of the BOE policy deliberations will not be known for another two weeks or so. The tone of the ECB post-meeting press conference seemed to focus on a future exit from an eventual policy easing. On the monetary policy side, both Japan and the U.S. are mulling a new round of quantitative ease. The sluggishness of the U.S. economy is expected to be the major topic of discussion at the FOMC meeting next week. Japan also continues to express dissatisfaction with the strength of the JPY. A major focus is the apparent Japanese line in the sand for USD/JPY at the 85.00 level. Many speculate there could be intervention at that line
All the markets are gearing up for U.S. jobs report on Friday. Expectations are for a decline in jobs on the order of about -60,000. Canadian jobs data are due as well.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:The Far East will see the Reserve Bank of Australiapolicy statement and Japanese leading indicators. In Europe, Swiss employment data are due along with U.K.industrial Output data. German Industrial output is awaited as well. due. In North America, Canadian and U.S.employment data are due along with the Ivey PMI.
The EURUSD is now steady on the day and the GBPUSD is down. The EURGBP cross is unchanged. Traders still are aware of the European sovereign debt situation.
In the GBP, the U.K. new government is always politically vulnerable.
The EURCHF is down. The SNB strong stand in supporting the EUR against the CHF has waned after massive FX losses.. Flows out of the EUR into the CHF remain an issue for the SNB.
The USDJPY is lower and the EURJPY cross is down. While Japanese public finances are a mess, analysts point out that most JGBs are owned by Japanese, so Japan is not dependent on foreign investment. The government has been pressed the BOJ to promote growth and favors a lower exchange rate.
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade continues to be turned on and off almost daily. As for the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD), they are mixed vs. the USD. The Bank of Canada recently hiked interest rates by 25bps. The BOC sent mixed signals afterwards. A strong CAD eases the pressure on the Bank of Canada to tighten. In Australia, RBA is unlikely to tighten in August. The RBNZ is now in a reduced tightening mode. Oil and gold are mixed. Gold is still favored as a refuge from paper money. We have favored AUD, CAD, gold and oil recently, but doubts are creeping in as deflationary pressures mount.
EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES
Equities and Bonds are also risk trades. Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses were mixed. U.S. equities are down. The U.S. 10-yr was last 2.90%, -6 bps.
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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