Commodity-linked Currencies Fall Sharply Led by Australian Dollar
All of the commodity-linked currencies were down hard on
Wednesday. The Australian Dollar was down the most because of its strong link
Downside momentum is building in this market which could trigger a test of the
last main bottom at .8904. Ultimately, this market seems destined to test a
major 50% price level at .8644.
The flight to safety rally sent investors into the Japanese
Yen. Buyers stepped in however after the Yen reached a 15 year low. Talk is
circulating that the Japanese government may attempt to intervene. Its biggest
concern at this time is that a rise in the Yen will hurt exports. This
expectation coupled with talk of lower demand from China
and the U.S.
will hurt the economic recovery.
The British Pound was down over 1% on Wednesday as worries
about a slowdown in the economy forced investors to wonder if the U.K. economic
recovery was slowing down.
Overnight the Bank of England lowered its forecast for
growth expectations in its quarterly inflation report. The BoE cited declining
confidence, tight credit conditions and the governmentâ€™s planned austerity
measures as the main reasons for the reduction in its outlook. In May, the
central bank forecast about 3.6% growth. The revised number is 3%.
Although the U.K. Gross Domestic Product was more than
expected during the second quarter, a key central bank official indicated that
the total growth for the year would most likely average out.
In a statement, BoE Governor Mervyn King said, â€śbusiness and
consumer sentiment have shown signs of softening, measure of financial
fragility remain elevated, and there is great uncertainty about the outlook for
both the United States
and our most important trading partner, the euro area.â€ť
This statement cast on pall on the British Pound and the
Euro, triggering hard sell-offs in both of these markets.
changed its daily trend to down on Tuesday when it took out its last swing
bottom at 1.5819. Today this market tested a key 50% level at 1.5635. Although
an intraday technical bounce took place, triggering a small short-covering
rally, this level is not likely to hold. The major downside objective is an
uptrending Gann angle from the 1.4229 bottom at 1.5429.
The slide in the Euro continued on Wednesday with this pair
losing over 2%. A slowdown in the global economy is expected to hit the Euro
Zone particularly hard especially since it is barely recovering from the
sovereign debt crisis from sixty days ago.
Technically, the main trend on the daily chart turned down
earlier in the week. Downside momentum is strong and selling pressure hard, but
short-term indicators are indicating this market is getting close to oversold.
The bigger charts indicate this market is likely to continue down until it
reaches a major retracement level at 1.2605. Short-term, however, there may be
a technical bounce at an uptrending Gann angle at 1.2836. This angle is being
tested overnight. If profit-takers come into the market, then watch for a snapback
rally to 1.3085 before the selling resumes.
Continue to look for the mass exodus out of higher risk
currencies to continue, however investors should watch for quick short-covering
rallies in most of the major currencies because of short-term oversold
conditions. This first break in the British Pound and Euro may be only long
liquidation. The chart patterns suggest there may be one more rally to test
their recent highs. This move will give fresh shorts an opportunity to re-enter
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