Dollar/CAD Ping-Pongs in Range; Dollar/Yen Consolidating
The USD CAD is still ping-ponging between retracement levels
at 1.0282 to 1.0579. Continue to play these levels until the market breaks out
in either direction. The Canadian economy appears to be stuck because of the
influence of the weakening U.S.
economy. Uncertainty about future growth is cooling off the Canadian economy,
leading to speculation that the Bank of Canada will leave interest rates at
The USD JPY is still consolidating inside of the 84.73 to
86.37 range. The market appears to be forming a support base as government and
Bank of Japan officials try to decide the effect of the high priced Yen on the
economy and whether to intervene. This market is expected to remain inside of a
tight range until this decision is reached. This decision has the potential to
exert a tremendous amount of influence on the market which is likely to lead to
high volatility next week. In particular, a breakout to the upside could
produce some tremendous gains as shorts will no doubt pay anything to get out
of their positions.
The U.S. Dollar traded higher across the board under light
trading conditions on Friday. Trader sentiment continued to remain locked
around risk aversion as uncertainty over the strength of the global economy
The British Pound broke minor 50% support at 1.5560 and an
uptrending long-term Gann angle at 1.5549. This move tripped stops and caused a
soft break into a .618 support level at 1.5457 before settling into a range.
It was reported this week that U.K. retail sales were stronger
than expected, but this news wasnâ€™t enough to sustain the rally. Concerns about
inflation and the effects of new taxes and spending cuts on the economy
continue to weigh on investors. Earlier in the week, the Bank of England
minutes showed that the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8 to 1 to support this
monthâ€™s interest rate decision. The minutes also showed that inflation was
discussed as well as a rate hike. The BoE seems to believe that inflation will
fall back below the target rate of 2%, if left alone, by 2012. The central bank
is basing this assessment on its evaluation of data which it interprets to mean
that the current high inflation rate has been caused by temporary events.
The Euro reaffirmed its downtrend when it broke a swing
bottom at 1.2732. A new main top on the daily chart was formed at 1.2921. The
next objective is the major retracement zone at 1.2605 to 1.2433. This area
represents a retracement of the 1.1876 to 1.3334 range.
Talk surrounding the strength of the Euro Zone recovery
helped pressure the Euro but the most bearish influence was comments from
European Central Bank council member Weber who said he thought the ECB should
wait until the first quarter next year before considering an exit strategy.
This ignited a huge sell-off in the Euro as traders read the comments to mean
the Euro Zone economy was not as strong as perceived.
Flight to safety buying is driving the USD CHF higher.
Former bottoms on the weekly chart are providing some light support, but the
daily chart suggests the market should continue to remain under pressure. A
series of tops at 1.0675, 1.0640 and 1.0626 are major resistance. The trend
will remain down on the daily chart until these levels are violated.
Election concerns and the dumping of risky assets pressured
the Australian Dollar early in the session before it stabilized. The trend is
down but the chart indicates there is room to break to .8644 over the near-term
if sellers step back in after the week-end.
Polls are showing the election is too close to call with
several analysts calling for a hung parliament. Taxes, spending cuts and the
environment are key issues to be decided with this election.
The trend is down in the New Zealand Dollar. 7191 is new
main top on the daily chart. A trade through this level will turn the main
trend up. Downside momentum is slowing today, but could pick up again if
sellers show up. The chart indicates room to break to the .6977 level.
The Dollar Index finished the week on its high. Overall the
shift in sentiment toward risk aversion triggered this weekâ€™s rally. Early next
week the Dollar should react to U.S.
housing data. At the end of the week, the GDP Second Estimate should have a
huge influence on the direction of the Greenback. The consensus is calling for
growth of 1.3% versus 2.4% previously.
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