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Friday August 27, 2010 - 00:59:44 GMT
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December Gold Posts Reversal Top

December Gold posted a closing price reversal top on Thursday after an attempted breakout to the upside failed to attract strong buyers. You can’t really blame the slightly better than expected U.S. Weekly Initial Claims report for putting in the top, but this news did contribute to the day-long decline as sentiment shifted away from risk aversion.


Gold traded sharply lower early this week as traders dumped risky assets because of the cooling economy. December Gold attracted fresh buyers after a dip to $1211.70 as investors sought protection from a falling equity market. The low yields in Treasurys also encouraged investors to buy Gold.


Continue to expect these asset allocation shifts between gold, fixed income, equities and currencies as investors try to rebalance their accounts to catch undervalued markets. Wednesday’s rally in Gold may have been a signal that investors are fed up with weak equity markets and not interested in the low yields offered by the Treasury markets.


December Crude Oil followed through to the upside following Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom. Based on the range of 84.45 to 72.35, the market is set up for a retracement to a 50% level at 78.41 but this seems unlikely unless upside momentum picks up. A downtrending Gann angle at 75.95 could limit gains on Thursday.


Equity markets rallied early Thursday following a slightly better Weekly Initial Claims Report but were unable to hold onto gains as worry about tomorrow’s speech by Bernanke and the Second Quarter GDP estimate proved too much for investors to handle.


Even after Wednesday’s technical reversal and follow-through this morning, traders had to be asking themselves, “what the heck are we doing on the long side of this market”. After this week’s dismal housing and durable goods reports, there was very little reason to stay with the long-side of the market especially ahead of Bernanke’s speech to the central bankers at the conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming


After trying to maintain a “risk-on” mentality early in the session, sentiment shifted to risk aversion triggering a break in equities and a rally in the Treasury Bond market. Traders will be watching this week’s low in the September E-mini S&P 500 very carefully tomorrow. The charts indicate that there may be a freefall if 1038.75 is taken out with conviction.


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