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Sunday October 21, 2012 - 17:39:15 GMT -

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Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD

Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD
14:10 GMT ( for October 22 (current rate 1.3021)

It is hard to see big bets being made over the next two weeks with the US presidential race turning into a close call. The conventional wisdom is that a Romney win would be good for markets but perhaps only as a knee jerk reaction. It is still Obama's race to lose and in this regard neither candidate can afford a slip up in Monday�s final debate, which is focused on foreign policy.

As for the market, the close to the week seemed more of a reality check as US earnings continued to disappoint. If you look beyond the election the focus will then shift to the impending fiscal cliff and given the lack of bi-partisanship in the current Congress, this drama could play out into a last minute deadline.

Then we have Europe and the never ending Greek tragedy + when will Spain ask for a bailout soap opera. The latter is what seems to be holding up the EUR as no one wants to be sitting short when the announcement comes. In this regard, it could come at any time now that Spanish regional elections are out of the way but Rajoy seems in no rush with most of the year�s funding needs already met.

Looking at the daily EURUSD chart, it is still in a 1.28-1.32 range, suggesting 1.30 will set the tone going forwards. It also needs to stay above the 20 day mva (1.2951 = red line) it keep the focus on 1.30+. Note Friday was a rarity as EURUSD range was on one big figure (1.30xx) and that is not typical of this pair. This suggests a risk that either side of 1.30-1.31 will be broken Monday with the bottom end most at risk, if only to see what is lying there, bids or stops.

Otherwise, watch stocks Monday as a guide as this is what sets the risk mood after the weak close on Friday.

Sup 1.3012 -1.3000 � 1.2980 � 1.2950 � 1.2920-25 - 1.2891

Res 1.3050 � 1.3076-80 � 1.3110 � 1.3130 - 1.3140

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