User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday January 29, 2013 - 03:40:51 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 29-Jan-2013 -0338 GMT


Minor profit-taking in the Dow (13881.93, -14.05, -0.10%) last night after the solid rise last week. Overall very bullish, with the rise past 13750 being significant. Some Resistance at 14000, though.

A-Pac largely positive ranging from -0.09% (Hong Kong) to +0.98% (Australia). Nikkei (10893, +0.63%) continues to look bullish. Some Resistance at 11000, though. Failure to break that this week can lead to range trade between 10400-11000 for a couple of weeks.

Shanghai (2348, +0.08%) trades just below important Resistance region of 2350-60. Eventual rise looks likely, maybe preceded by 5-10 days of sideways consolidation.

The Nifty (6074.80) looks potentially bullish, although the Resistance at 6100 is intact for now. Some more Resistance is seen at 6125. Need a break of that to produce the next surge. The market waits for the RBI rate decision today, of course. A 25bp Repo rate cut is built into the price. The Nifty could fall if the RBI disappoints.

Overall, most indices continue to look bullish, but might want to pause and rest for a couple of weeks after their strong rise over the last couple of months.

Crude is looking strong. Gold and Silver are weak while Copper is mixed.

Nymex Crude (96.66) remains higher and is consolidating between 95 and 97 over the last few days. A break above 97 can take it up to 10-103 in the coming days.

Brent Crude (113.57) is bullish for a rise to 116-118 with Support near 111. However, Brent is not looking as strong as the Nymex.

Gold (1658) has come down and looks weak in the near term for a test of 1625-1600 and may be even lower levels.

The Gold/Crude ratio (17.16) has broken its important Support near 17.30 and look weak for a fall to 16 suggesting a stronger Crude and weaker Gold going forward. Please take a look at the chart in the link given below:

Silver (30.98) has come down further and can test 30.50-30.00 on the downside in the coming days.

Copper (3.66) remains lower below 3.70 but is not showing strength to fall sharply. It has Support in 3.63-62 region which needs to hold to prevent a fall to 3.50. We will have to wait and see.

Euro remains higher but flat. Yen and Pound are weak while the Aussie and Dollar-Swiss looks mixed/ranged. The Dollar-Index (79.76) is holding above 79.50 but looks vulnerable to test 79.30. The outcome of the US Fed meeting tomorrow could be a trigger for the market to find a specific direction of move. We will have to wait and see.

The Euro (1.3451) is ranged below its 1.3490 (Fibonacci) Resistance and looks mixed. As mentioned yesterday the upside could be capped to 1.3560 for a while. Dollar-Yen (90.80) is strong for a rise to 92.00-20, but can consolidate between 90 and 91 before the rise. The Euro-Yen Cross (122.12) remains higher but will need a strong break above 123.10 to rise further and prevent a corrective fall to 120-118.

Dollar-Swiss (0.9264) looks mixed and could be ranged between 0.9200 and 0.9350. The Pound (1.5703) has come off further and remains weak for a test of 1.5650 and even 1.5550. Aussie (1.0445) is bouncing back from its 1.0400-370 Support region and can test 1.0500 once again. It could remain ranged between 1.0370 and 1.0600 for some time.

The Sing dollar (1.2370) is trading weak and can weaken further in the coming days while it remains above 1.2320. The Brazilian Real is trading stronger at 1.9942 following its Central Bank's comments that it would prefer stronger currency to fight inflation. Dollar-Rupee (53.91/92) traded flat in a narrow range yesterday as the market awaits for the outcome of the RBI's monetary policy today.

The US 10-Yr (1.97%) rose briefly above 2.0% yesterday. If this trend continues, we could see 2.10-15% in the weeks ahead. The 30-Yr (3.15%) could also move up towards 3.25%.

German yields continue to rise strongly. The Germany-US 2-Yr Spread (+0.02%) has finally moved above Zero for the first time since Dec-11. Further increase is possible after some consolidation, which should keep the Euro supported. But, keep an eye on the Spain 10-Yr (5.25%) which has risen strongly past 5.10%, breaking the downtrend since August. It could rise towards 5.50% before stabilising sideways.

All eyes are on the RBI today. The market is thirsting for a 25bp Repo rate cut from 8.0% to 7.75%, but the RBI cannot be taken for granted. The CRR (4.25%) has a good chance of being reduced to 4.0%.

Thereafter, we have the FOMC tomorrow.

4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Repo Rate
...Expected 7.75% ...Previous 8.00%

4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Previous 7.00%

4:30 GMT or 11:00 IST RBI CRR
...Expected 4.00% ...Previous 4.25%

13:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Case Schiller
...Expected 5.7% ...Previous 4.3%

14:00 GMT or 20:30 IST US Cons Conf
...Expected 64.5 ...Previous 65.1

US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual 4.55% ...Previous 0.68%




Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex