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Global PMIs better than expected. Ukraine worries force a "risk-off" trade

Global PMIs better than expected. Ukraine worries force a "risk-off" trade
March 4, 2014 00:00 gmt
  calendar
CALENDAR:  Reserve Bank of Australia. EZ- PPI, US- API Data


Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD 1.3730  1.3679
 U.S. 2.60% -12bp
  North America: Lower
 EURJPY 139.17
 139.69
 Bund 1.56% -6 bp
 DAX: Lower
 GBPUSD 1.6655
 1.6581
 GILT 2.66% -6bp
 FTSE: Lower
 USDJPY 101.36
 102.12
  JGB 0.58% -1bp  Far East Close:Mixed

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Reserve Bank of Australiia Decision
  • Monday has seen the first wave of global PMI data, and in general the reports were stronger than expected. This suggestes that Europe, the U.S. and Asia gcould emerge from winter on a firmer footing. 
  • On the other hand, some worry that  the latest GDP statistics suggest that the U.S. might have a large overhang of inventory to work through.
  • Markets will be keeping a close watch on developments in Ukraine over the week. The concern is by how much Russia will interfere with the government change in that newly-independent country.
  • We expect no change in European Central Bank policy this Thursday. Flash Eurozone HICP (CPI) data ticked up in January. The final data usually do not change much from the flash release. Furthermore, the German Bundesbank clearly is not in favor of a rate cut.  As far as I can tell, ECB policy is geared more to the needs and desires of Germany than the rest of the bloc. German data in the latest week generally came in stronger than anticipated.
  • This week also sees central bank policy meetings for Australia, Canada,  the U.K. The tail end of the week features key U.S. and Canadian employment data.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released,  see the FOREX FORUM.


FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM


John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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