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Tuesday March 4, 2014 - 16:28:14 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Russia Hits Pause on Ukraine Invasion, S&P500 Sees Record Intraday High US Market Update: Russia Hits Pause on Ukraine Invasion, S&P500 Sees Record Intraday High
Tue, 04 Mar 2014 11:04 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- OECD Jan Annual Inflation: 1.7% v 1.6% prior
- (IE) Ireland Feb Consumer Confidence: 85.5 v 84.6 prior
- (RU) Russia Feb CPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 6.3%e; CPI YTD: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (RU) Russia Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 5.6%e
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e Mar 1st w/w +0.3%; y/y: +1.5%
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Mar 1st +2.7% y/y, Feb MTD: -1.3% m/m; Feb MTD: +2.9% Y/Y
- (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves: 207.5B v 206.9 prior
- (US) Feb ISM New York: 57 v 64.4 prior
- (US) Mar IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 45.1 v 45.0e
- (DK) Denmark Feb Foreign Reserves (DKK): 475.4B v 475.7B prior

- Global markets are retracing all of their losses from yesterday as Russian President Vladimir Putin pauses his campaign in Crimea. In Europe, the CAC and DAX are up more than 2%, while the FTSE is up 1.5%. In the US, the S&P500 has pushed out to fresh all-time interday highs around 1869. Russia's MICEX index rallied 6.2% after tumbling 11% on Monday. As of writing, the DJIA is up 1.2%, the S&P500 is up 1.3% and the Nasdaq is up 1.6%.

- The somewhat surreal Kremlin press conference earlier this morning is the singular event for the market turnaround. President Putin denied the presence of Russian soldiers on Ukrainian soil or the participation of Moscow at all in events in Crimea. He also said Russia reserves the option to "send troops to Crimea," even while saying Russia had no plans to annex the peninsula. In comments earlier, a Kremlin aide insisted that if the US imposes sanctions, Russia might drop the dollar as a reserve currency.

- After declining as low as 2.589% during yesterday's session, the yield on the 10-year US treasury is back up to 2.660%. Spot gold fell from the highest price in more than four months to as low as $1,332 earlier this morning. After testing around $105 on yesterday's session, front-month WTI crude is back around $103 this morning. The volume of WTI futures contracts has been almost double the average. The Brent front-month contract has fallen nearly 2% to $109.

- Various names with exposure to Russia and Eastern Europe are among the biggest gainers in the US session. VIPS gained 40% before giving up a bit of gournd. EPAM and LXFT are up 15% a piece.

- In other news, Radio Shack is getting a lot of unwanted attention this morning, with shares of RSH down more than 12% following terrible earnings, but well off the 18% losses seen earlier. The electronics retailer's losses have accelerated rapidly and sales comps fell 12% y/y in its fourth quarter. The company said it was looking to close up to 1,000 stores, or about 20% of its outlets.

- Chinese solar names are seeing very robust gains on two positive reports. Trina Solar's fourth quarter earnings were three times the expected amount and the company discussed its very strong outlook for its domestic China business. Yingli Green boosted its fourth-quarter module shipment guidance, citing similar trends. TSL is up nearly 10% and YGE is up 6%. JKS is up 12% today in sympathy.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $60B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Feb PPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 16:15 (US) Fed's Lacker on economy in NY
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 18:30 (CN) China Premier Li to give 2014 GDP growth target
- 18:30 (CN) China Fin Min Lou to present 2014 budget report
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.3% prior
- 20:45 (CN) China Feb HSBC/Markit Services PMI: No est v 50.7 prior




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