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Outcome of Crimea Vote Due before Trading Starts Monday. China Widens CNY Trading Band

Outcome of Crimea Vote Due before Trading Starts Monday. China Widens CNY Trading Band
March 17, 2014 :00::00 gmt
CALENDAR: Europe: EZ- Final HICP  US- Empire PMI, TIC Flows, Industrial Production

20d avg
 EURUSD 1.3905
 U.S. 2.66% +1bp
  North America:Lower
 EURJPY 140.90
 Bund 1.55%  0bp
 DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.6636
 GILT 2.68% -1bp
 FTSE: Lower
 USDJPY 101.28
  JGB 0.62% -3bp  Far East Close: Lower

HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: EZ- Final HICP, US- Empire PMI, Industrial Production
  • China ha widened the trading band on the CNY. A wider band increases the risks for those arbitraging the external yuan (CNY) against its internal (CNH) counterpart,
  • The outcome of the Crimea vote will be known before trading starts in earnest. There is no doubt about its outcome. There is not much anyone can do about the Russian annexation of Crimea, so odds are it will fade as a market factor fairly quickly.
  • I try to be as objective as possible when looking at economic data. as i look at the broad sweep of global data over the past few weeks, it seems to have  becoming increasingly evident that the global economy has gotten onto improving path. This is not to say that a rapid recovery is at hand, but a slow and uneven rebound might be in the works.  Key will be if the corrections to distortions due to the unusually severe winter in the U.S. start to show up in the March data.
  • This Wednesday will see a Fed Decision. No changes in the present course of policy are widely expected. With long-term U.S. rates falling and the economy doing better, there might be a temptation to accelerate the pace of the Fed asset purchase taper, but caution suggests they will keep to their $10bln per month reduction pace.
  • This month's decision will be accompanied by Yellen's first press conference. She typically is very well prepared for these events and tends to be clearer than many of her predecessors in her public statements. We do not expect this meeting to be market-moving.
  • Last Thursday ECB President Draghi finally commented on the value of the euro, saying that actions could be taken to combat falling prices in the Eurozone and that the value of the exchange rate is a factor the ECB always considers.
  • Draghi comments sounded like a  warning that the value of the currency is getting be too high. It is possible that the EURUSD 1.40 area is seen as the point of pain for the ECB. Keep an eye on revised Eurozone February HICP (preliminary 0.80% y/y) data on Monday.
  • The data calendar for the week ahead is an active one. Monday sees final February Eurozone HICP (CPI), then on Tuesday the German ZEW data will be released along with U.S. CPI. U.S. Housing data will be coming out all week. The Highlight on Wednesday will be U.K. Employment data and the latest Bank of England policy minutes. Thursday highlights include the latest Swiss National Bank policy decision and U.K. Retail Sales. Then on Friday, Canadian Retail Sales and CPI data are due.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released,  see the FOREX FORUM.

FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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