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Wednesday March 26, 2014 - 10:33:54 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German GFK Confidence matches 7-yr high, verbal intervention effects fading


Wed, 26 Mar 2014 5:33 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Economic calendar is relatively light in terms of data
- Verbal intervention having waning effect in FX markets (Euro, Aussie and Kiwi pairs)
- Investors hoping for stimulus from China and the Eurozone; Chinese officials play down such speculation
- (US) Fed's Bullard: Reiterates don't think policy has changed, Yellen comments not much of a surprise -comments on Monetary Policy in Hong Kong - tv interview
- (RU) Russia Central Bank deputy Chairman Yudayeva: Considering 3-year financing for banks that would be secured by investment projects
- (UK) BoEs Weale: Economy is looking better; wages are starting to grow
- (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) Gov Stevens: Reiterates house price level is an issue of great importance for the RBI
- (CN) China 7-day repo rate rose almost 25bps; longest streak in 7 years

***Equities***
- Market Focal Points: Equity markets open higher, DAX outperforms, Hong Kong's Hang Seng pared gains as Chinese official played down stimulus speculation, Share placement weighs on shares of Lloyds

- Indices [Stoxx50 +0.5%, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,624, DAX +0.7% at 9,404, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 10,049, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 20,878, SMI +0.5% at 8,342, S&P 500 +0.1% at 1,861]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Bellway BWY.UK +3% (H1 profits +73%), Orpea ORP.FR +2.5% (raised FY sales forecast), Mediaset MS.IT +1% (Reported FY profit); Carpetright CPR.UK -7% (profit warning), ITV ITV.UK -1% (broker commentary)]
Financials [Phoenix Group PHNX.UK +3% (asset sale); Lloyds LLOY.UK -4% (share placement), Man Group EMG.UK -4% (broker commentary)]
Industrials [Marie Tecnimont MT.IT +6% (project award)]
Healthcare [Stada SAZ.DE +3% (broker commentary)]
Energy [Lamprell LAM.UK -9% (cautious outlook)]
Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials +0.9%, Technology +0.8%, Industrials +0.8%, Consumer Cyclical +0.5%, Energy +0.3%, Basic Materials +0.2%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%, Financials +0.1% Telecom flat ;Utilities -0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- Verbal intervention was having a waning effect on various currencies in recent days. ECB officials confirmed that the central bank was discussing the possibility of additional stimulus while the AUD/USD continued to rise to fresh 4-month highs above $0.92 handle
- Dealers pondering that a return of confidence must be something to behold in the respective pairs.
- Overall the major FX pairs remained locked in tight ranges. EUR/USD consolidating in a 1.3750-1.3850 area while USD/JPY between 102.00-102.50

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Feb Industrial Production M/M: +6.2% v +3.8%; Y/Y: 12.8% v 12.9%
- (TH) Thailand Feb Custom Trade Balance: +$1.8B v -$1.4Be; Exports Y/Y: +2.4% v +0.2%e; Imports Y/Y: -16.6% v -2.0%e
- (DE) Germany Apr GfK Consumer Confidence: 8.5 v 8.5e (matches 7-year high)
- (CH) Swiss Feb UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.57 v 1.49 prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.1 v +0.8% prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Consumer Confidence: 99.6 v 101.8e; Manufacturing Confidence: 99.8 v 104.0e; Economic Tendency Survey: 101.5 v 104.9e
- (EU) ECB 1.03B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.05B prior; 32.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 31.7B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (SE) Sweden Feb Trade Balance (SEK): 5.0B v 6.1Be
- (IT) Italy Jan Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.6%e
- (IS) Iceland Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.1% prior

***Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) President Obama attends EU-U.S. Summit in Brussels
- (UR) IMF to announce results from Ukraine mission
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Mar Consumer Confidence Index: 98.4e v 97.5 prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed % vs. $ prior
- 06:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed % vs. $ prior
- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing
- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to 2-2.5B in Zero Coupon 2015 CTZ Bonds; Avg Yield: % v 0.822% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 1.72x prior (Prior Jan 28th 2014 with yield at record low) (**Note: C ancels previously scheduled auction of inflation linked debt)
- 06:00 (SE) Sweden to sell Bonds
- 06:15 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 3-Month Refinancing Tender
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds in Switch Auction
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 21st: No est v -1.2% prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.3% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 107.1 prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.4%e v 0.4% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:30 (EU) EU-US Summit in Brussels
- 07:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (UK) Weekly PM Cameron Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:00 (RU) Russia cancels OFZ Bond auction
- 08:30 (US) Feb Durable Goods Orders: +0.8%e v -1.0% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior (revised from +1.1%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex- Aircraft: 0.5%e v 1.5% prior (revised from 1.7%)Capital Goods Shipment Non-defense Ex-Aircraft: +0.8%e v -1.0% prior (revised from -0.8%); Durables Ex-Defense: No est v -1.8% prior
- 08:30 (DE) German Bundesbank member Dombret in NY
- 09:00 (ES) ECB's Linde (Spain) Linde speaks in Madrid
- 09:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Feb Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.717T prior; M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.315T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 6.6% prior
- 09:45 (US) Mar Preliminary Markit PMI Services: 54.0e v 53.3 prior; PMI Composite: No est v 54.1 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:30 (US) Treasury Sec Lew testifies in House
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Weekly Currency Flows
- 13:00 (FR) France Feb Net Change Jobseekers: +2.4Ke v +8.9K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.32Me v 3.316M prior

 

 

 

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