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Friday May 9, 2014 - 10:24:13 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Analyst ramp up June rate cut calls for ECB; China SAFE sees yuan moving closer to equilibrium

Fri, 09 May 2014 5:23 AM EST

- Several investment bank analysts are speculating that the ECB might cut both its Main Refi Rate and Deposit Facility by 10-15bps at its June meeting
- Denmark Econ Ministry: EU suggests Denmark covered bonds be calculated with a 7% haircut
- US Federal Election Commission (FEC) approves bitcoin may be used to fund political campaigns, gives limits for PACs - financial press
- Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 90.6K (multi-year low) v 104.1K prior
- Germany reported a surprise fall in March exports
- Bank of Korea (BOK) pauses for the 12th straight time with Repo Rate steady at 2.50%
- China Apr CPI hits an 18-month low (1.8% vs. 2.1%e) while PPI falls for the 26th straight month (-2.0% vs. -1.9%e)
- RBA Quarterly Statement on monetary policy: Low rates to be needed for some time yet; Lower AUD to add to inflation, but spare capacity and weak wages growth to detract
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): CNY currency (Yuan) is moving closer to a reasonable and equilibrium level

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid ECB Draghi comments and late day declines in US markets, Advertising names gain after breakdown of Publicis/Omnicom merger, Alcatel-Lucent Q1 results supported by margin expansion, Steelmaker ArcelorMittal cut 2014 global steel consumption forecast as quarterly sales miss ests, Vestas Wind beat ests on growth in the US, Weak results from oil services firms (Petrofac, PGS, SBM Offshore), DAX weighed down by various ex dividends, Russian equities closed for holiday

- Indices [Stoxx50 -0.5%, FTSE 100 -0.4% at 6,814, CAC-40 -0.6% at 4,481, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 10,524, FTSE MIB -0.6% at 21,581, SMI -0.2% at 8,448, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 1,870]

***By Sector***
- Consumer Discretionary [Johnston Press JPR.UK -20% (capital raise), Adidas ADS.DE -1.5% (ex dividend); Swedish Match SWMA.SE +3% (Q1 profits above ests), International Consolidated Airlines IAG.UK +0.5% (narrowed Q1 loss)]
- Industrials [Bilfinger SE GBF.DE -3% (ex dividend), Leoni LEO.DE -2.5% (ex dividend)]
- Basic Materials/Resources [ArcelorMittal MT.NL -2.5% (Q1 sales below ests); Salzgitter SZG.DE (narrowed Q1 loss), K+S SDF.DE +1% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [Talanx TLX.DE -4% (ex dividend)]
- Telecom [Prysmian PRY.IT -4% (Q1 EBITDA declined), Telefonica TEF.ES -2.5% (Q1 results below ests), Belgacom BELG.BE -1% (Q1 results below ests); Alcatel Lucent ALU.FR +3.5% (narrowed Q1 net loss, swung to op profit)]
- Energy [Petrofac PFC.UK -15% (profit warning), Rec Silicon REC.NO -10% (Q1 loss widened), Petroleum Geo-Services PGS.NO -8% (Q1 results below ests), Drax Group DRX.UK -2.5% (profit warning); Vestas Wind VWS.DK +6% (Q1 results above ests)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Telecom -0.9%, Energy -0.8%, Technology -0.6%, Consumer Cyclical -0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -0.2%, Basic Materials -0.1% ;Utilities +0.4%, Industrials +0.2%, Financials +0.1%]

***Currencies/Fixed Income***
- The Euro currency maintained a soft tone in the session after Draghi stated on Thursday that the ECB Council would be comfortable acting at the June policy meeting, if needed. The EUR/USD probed towards the 1.3800 level just ahead of the NY morning. A plethora of analyst now forecast cuts of both the Main Refit Rate and Deposit Facility between 10-15bps at the ECB next meeting. June Bund futures hit a fresh contract high while the 10-year German govt yield hit a 12-month low below 1.44%
- Press reports circulated that China had been speculated it was buying EUR denominated bonds. The 10-year Portuguese/German Gov't bond spread moves below 200bps; tightest since May 2010

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Leading Index CI: 106.5 v 106.7e; Coincident Index: 114.0 v 114.0e
- (IN) India Apr Local Car Sales: 135.4K v 171.5K prior
- (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending May 3rd: +8.9% v +0.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Current Account Balance: 19.5B v 14.9Be; Trade Balance: 16.4B v 17.4Be; Exports M/M: -1.8% v +1.3%e; Imports M/M: -0.9% v +0.6%e
- (SE) Sweden Apr PES Unemployment Rate: 4.1% v 4.2%e
- (FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -5.0% v -5.4% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Apr Gross Reserves: $49.6B v $49.6Be; Net Reserves: $44.9B v $45.1Be
- (FR) France Mar YTD Budget Balance: -28.0B v -25.7B prior
- (DK) Denmark Mar Current Account Balance (DKK): 1.7B v 3.0Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 7.0B v 7.9Be
- (EU) ECB 80M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 29M prior; 24.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 23.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Industrial Production M/M: -3.8% v -0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 4.3%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: 3.0 v 2.6% prior
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (NO) Norway Apr CPI Underlying M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.3%e
- (NO) Norway Apr PPI including Oil M/M: -0.5% v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v +0.1% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 0.4% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.3%e
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI) Mar bad loans +23% y/y
- (UK) Mar Visible Trade Balance: -8.5B v -9.0Be; Total Trade Balance: -1.3B v -2.0Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.2B v -3.0Be
- (UK) Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e
- (UK) Mar Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.9%e
- (UK) Mar Construction Output M/M: -1.0% v +0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 7.1%e

- (GR) Greece Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.1% v +1.7% prior
- (GR) Greece Apr CPI Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.2%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.4%e

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)

- (PT) Portugal Sovereign Debt Rating Published by Moody's
- Malta Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks about Meaning of World War I at Youth Workshop
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with France President Hollande to Meet on Baltic Coast for Talks
- (US) Fed's Kocherlakota in St Paul, MN
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Trade Balance: No est v -794M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Unemployment Rate: No est v 15.3% prior
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces weekly 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 6.0Be
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil May IGP-M Inflation 1st Preview: No est v 0.7% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 2nd: No est v $309.9B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Net Change in Employment: +15.0Ke v +42.9K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.9%e v 6.9% prior; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +12.8K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +30.1K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.2% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Gross Fixed Investment: -1.7%e v -2.4% prior
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Vehicle Production: No est v 271.2K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 240.8K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 23.4K prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Wholesales Inventories: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Wholesale Trade Sales M/M: 1.2%e v 0.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 4.173M prior
- 10:00 (UK) Apr NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.9% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.5-2.0B in bonds
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 12:00 (US) Fed Fisher In New Orleans
- 21:00 (AU) Australia May Consumer Inflation Expectation: No est v 2.4% prior
- (AR) Argentina Q4 GDP Y/Y: 2.7%e v 5.5% prior
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- (PE) Peru Mar Trade Balance: No est v $114M prior
- (MX) Mexico Apr Nominal Wages: No est v 4.4% prior

- (UR) Pro-Russian separatists hold referendum in Eastern Ukraine




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