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Draghi ECB Comments Made Last Week to Dominate Trade

Draghi ECB Comments Made Last Week to Dominate Trade
May 12, 2014  00:30 gmt

JA- Trade. Europe: No Major Data. North America: No Major Data

20d avg
 EURUSD 1.3745
 U.S. 2.62% +1bp
  North America: Lower
 EURJPY 139.91
 Bund 1.46% -1bp
 DAX: Lower
 GBPUSD 1.6842
 GILT 2.69% +4bp
 FTSE: Higher
 USDJPY 101.78
  JGB 0.61% +1bp  Far East Close: Mixed

  • ItWe saw a rare "game changer" by ECB President Mario draghi in his post-ECB policy decision press conference on Thursday. Some say hos comments were off-handed, but I saw the stilted carefully-selected language of a pre-planned remark. Draghi said that a strong Euro in the context of low CPI and low econ growth is a cause for serious concern. In other words he was warning the markets that the ECB would like to see the EUR trade weaker. When a central banker cites "serious concern", do yourself a favor and pay attention.
  • Draghi also provided the markets with some rare forward guidance, saying that the central bank is prepared to take action to boost inflation if action is warranted by economc forecasts due at the June ECB meeting. This sounds to me like the governing council is ready to ease UNLESS those forecasts unexpectedly make the case for higher price levels. We have been warned.
  • Two rounds of Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Yellen sent another round of dovish signals to the markets. She expressed her concerns about weak job creation. recall that full-employment is a Fed mandate, She also finally expressed worries about the weak housing market. I have been pointing out that housing data have been lousy since last October. 
  • Major highlights of the week ahead include the German ZEW Survey and U.S. Retail Sales data on Tuesday. Wednesday key U.K. employment data. The highlight Thursday will be final April HICP data, which could figure into the June ECB decision. On Friday, markets clearly will be focused on U.S. Housing Starts and Permits after Yellen's comments.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Expert Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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