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Tuesday May 20, 2014 - 09:14:21 GMT -

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U.K. Inflation hotter than expected Mild Risk Off Posture. No Key U.S. Data

U.K. Inflation hotter than expected Mild Risk Off Posture. No Key U.S. Data
May 20, 2014  09:30 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets are off to a mixed start early in Europe. It appears that Europe is moving back to a mixed "risk-off" posture ahead of the U.S, open?
  • Prime fixed income markets are seeing yields mostly higher even though equities in Europe have weakened. Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone are mixed.
  •  Equities rallied in the Far East, but European bourses have been turning south   U.S. equity futures are currently trading a touch weaker.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.54%, +1bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflect yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off (red)


Trading appears to be focused on trade in the EURJPY cross. We had heard last week reports that Russia and China had been moving reserves out of the EUR and into the JPY. We have not been able to confirm the reports. The EURUSD is now trading below the 1.3700 level. At 101.31, the USDJPY in range of its 101.26 200-day moving average.

U.K. data will be a feature all week. CPI/RPI data out today were a touch hotter than expected but are not expected to have policy implications.  The BOE has focused more recently on the amount of "slack" in the economy than its official inflation targets. See the
FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

Weekly Trading Planner

WEDNESDAY 21 May 2014
Japan- Bank of Japan Meeting No policy changes are expected. More QE in the future?

U.K.- Retail Sales. One of the key measures of the strength of the economy.  
U.K.- BOE Meeting Minutes. This is where we get the first hard information about the BOE Meeting two weeks ago. The key thing to watch for is the amount of "slack" in the economy. Managing potential non-inflationary growth has become a key BOE policy objective.

Eurozone- Consumer Confidence not a market mover, but  a useful sentiment barometer.

THURSDAY 22 May 2014
U.K.- GDP. The second revision to 1Q14 is not likely to be changed much. Unlikely to be a market mover.

Eurozone- flash May PMI's. Always closely followed, but we have not been seeing a reliable pass through of the PMI sentiment recently to hard data.

United States- Existing Homes Sales  the most important U.S. housing statistics. It is seem improving.

Canada- Retail Sales Key Canadian statistic, but it tend to be rather old. Seen weaker,

FRIDAY 23 May 2014
Germany- IFO survey.  Most important German sentiment survey and usually a market mover. Expected to improve

Canada- CPI Seen within the Bank of Canada target range. Such an outcome would dampen speculation for a rate cut.

36United States- New Homes Sales. Another piece of the housing picture. It is seen  improving. This is usually not a market mover. 

MONDAY 26 May 2016
UK & U.S.-  Holidays

Time   Country Title Cons Last
20/05/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
21/05/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
21/05/14 2:45 CN HSBC flash PMI 48.3 48.1
21/05/14 4:30 JP Bank of Japan 0.10% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm Mar 0.40% 0.10%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 5.10% 4.20%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm 0.50% -0.40%
21/05/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 5.40% 4.20%
21/05/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
21/05/14 11:00 US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
21/05/14 14:00 EZ Cons Conf Aprp -8.2 -8.6
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a 947
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -770
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.12
21/05/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.80%
22/05/14 0:00 THURSDAY
22/05/14 7:00 FR MFG PMI flash 51 51.2
22/05/14 7:00 FR SVC PMI flash 50.2 50.4
22/05/14 7:28 DE MFG PMI flash 54 54.1
22/05/14 7:28 DE SVC PMI flash 54.5 54.7
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit SVC PMI flash 53 53.1
22/05/14 7:58 EZ Markit MFG PMI flash 53.2 53.4
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p QQ 0.80% 0.80%
22/05/14 8:30 GB GDP 1Q14p YY 3.10% 3.10%
22/05/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
22/05/14 12:30 CA Retail Sales- Feb 0.20% 0.50%
22/05/14 12:30 CA Sales x-autos n/a 0.60%
22/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims n/a 2.667
22/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 310 297
22/05/14 13:45 US MFG Markit PMI flash 55.5 55.4
22/05/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.30% 0.80%
22/05/14 14:00 US Existing Home 4.69 4.59
22/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 105
23/05/14 0:00 FRIDAY
23/05/14 0:00 US Early Close n/a n/a
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Current n/a 115.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Expectations n/a 107.3
23/05/14 8:00 DE IFO Climate 111.9 111.2
23/05/14 12:30 CA BOC CPI Apr y n/a 1.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI mm 0.30% 0.30%
23/05/14 12:30 CA CPI yy 2.00% 1.50%
23/05/14 14:00 US New Home Sales 423 384
23/05/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2013, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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