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Wednesday May 28, 2014 - 15:20:33 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: Equity Markets Pull Back After Hitting Fresh Record Highs

Wed, 28 May 2014 11:03 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) May CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 16 v 35e
- (IE) Ireland Apr Retail Sales Volume M/M: -0.9% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.8 v 8.6% prior (revised from 8.9%)
- (IE) Ireland Apr Property Prices M/M: +1.4 v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.5% v 7.8% prior
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 23rd: -1.2% v +0.9% prior
- (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales w/e May 23rd: w/w -1.2%; y/y: +2.1%
- (BR) Brazil Apr PPI Manufacturing M/M: -0.4% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 7.1% v 8.0% prior
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e May 23rd: % y/y, May MTD: % m/m, May MTD: % y/y

- Market participants are pulling back this morning after two sessions of strong gains. The 10-year yield is hitting its lowest levels since mid-2013 around 2.44%. The DJIA is down 0.19%, the S&P500 is off 0.16% and the Nasdaq is down 0.37%.

- The euro is testing three-month lows on continued dovish ECB speak and another round of weak EU data, including French consumer spending, EU money supply and German unemployment. EUR/USD sank from 1.3635 overnight to below 1.3600 after the open of US cash trading, although the pair is back above 1.3600 as of writing. Gold is dipping lower after yesterday's 2% loss, with spot around 41,258 as of writing.

- President Obama gave the commencement speech at West Point this morning. The president's theme was that isolationism is not an option for the US, although the threshold for taking military action needs to be higher and military strikes should only be pursued when there is an imminent threat to the US. Obama said that the odds of a deal with Iran were still pretty long, but there was still a chance for a dea, and also said the US would boost support for Syria's neighbors.

- The FDIC quarterly banking report indicated US bank earnings fell to $37.2 billion in the first quarter of the year, down nearly 8% as mortgage revenue dropped sharply and trading income declined. The FDIC warned that higher interest rates kept consumers from refinancing mortgages, with overall mortgage income down $4 billion, or 54% y/y. Note that Goldman Sachs presented at the Deutsche Bank conference this morning, and COO Cohn warned that volumes in the quarter so far are lower in currency, mortgage and government bond markets, making for an abnormal trading environment.

- Homebuilder Toll Brothers more than doubled its profits in the first quarter, widely beating both earnings and revenue expectations. The company reaffirmed its FY targets, slightly raising the low end of its average selling price outlook. The backlog and deliveries grew by healthy double-digit percentages, indicating that the housing recovery is on track, at least at the high end of the market. "We are in a leveling period in the early stages of the housing recovery with significant pent-up demand building," said TOL's CEO. Shares of TOL are up 3% or so today, while other homebuilders are seeing more modest gains.

- Valeant boosted the cash component of its offer for Allergan by $10.00 per share to $58.30 (the firm maintained the equity component at 0.83 of a Valeant share). The revised offer values the deal around $166.15/share or a total of $49.4 billion. In addition, Valeant has added a contingent value right related to DARPin sales which would provide up to approximately $25/shr of additional payouts over time.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 4-week and 52-Week Bills
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 2-Year Floating Rate Notes Reopening
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 30-Year Bonds
- 12:00 (FR) France Apr Net Change in Jobseekers: +5.5Ke v +1.6K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.355Me v 3.349M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (BDB): Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Selic Target Rate unchanged at 11.00%
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Apr Retail Sales M/M: -11.6%e v +6.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.2%e v +11.0% prior




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