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Wednesday May 28, 2014 - 17:38:55 GMT -

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USD Tone Better After Weak German Jobs Data. Active U.S. Calendar Thursday

USD Tone Better After Weak German Jobs Data. Active U.S. Calendar Thursday
May 29, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Late in Europe, yields in prime fixed income markets are broadly lower and  in a risk-off posture ahead of the ECB in a week's time.  Yields on bonds on the periphery of the Eurozone have turned sharply lower.
  • Equities rose broadly in the Far East earlier as they followed the Tuesday U.S. lead. European bourses closed narrowly mixed. U.S. equity futures are down slightly.
  • The U.S. 10-yr is 2.45%, -8bp.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: JP- Retail Sales, Industrial Output, EZ- Holiday (partial), CH-
    Holiday, CA- Current Account, GDP. US- GDP, Jobless Claims, Pending Homes Sales

  • Forex trading activity on Wednesday seemed to be extremely slow as it appeared that traders were looking for direction in what seemed to be improving trading conditions. Perhaps it was the partial Thursday European holiday thatdiminished participation.
  • German May Unemployment data unexpectedly increased  when another modest fall in jobless had been anticipated. The EURUSD is modestly lower. The ECB meets next in a weeks time
  • The major focus now is on that ECB meeting. Just about everything we hear from of the ECB confirms that some sort of easing by the central bank is in store, but some worry is all that will be forthcoming from the central bank is a reduction in interest rates. The concern of many is that a slight reduction in near-zero interest rates will only have a psychological impact.
  • U.S. data calendar for Wednesday is light.
    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    Five Day Trading Planner

    WEDNESDAY 28 May 2014
    Employment- Key economic measure. Seen stronger
    United States-
    5-yr Auction- Usually not a market mover.

    THURSDAY 29 May 2014
    United States
    GDP- Revisions to 1Q14 GDP will be closely-watched
    Weekly Jobless Claims- Markets always watch claims.
    Pending Homes Sales- Good predictor of Existing Homes
    Canada- GDP- Often not a Market-mover

    FRIDAY 30 May 2014
    CPI - The BOJ wants to extricate Japan from deflation. Core CPI seem 3.60% (subtract -2.70% for sales tax hike.).
    Retail Sales-  Key for Germany since its recent economic strength has been consumer-led. Very unusual.
    United States-
    University of Michigan Survey. Closely watched

    MONDAY 2 June 2014
    United States
    Final Markit Mfg PMI- Relatively new PMI .Not fully trusted yet.
    ISM MFG PMI- Original Mfg PMI measure. Closely followed.Ben showing strength.

    TUESDAY 3 June 2014
    Reserve Bank Decision- No Rate change expected. Key event.

    WEDNESDAY 4 June 2014
    United States
    ADP Jobs- Volatile series but tends to influence  outlook for NFP.
    Markit Service PMI- Trusted even less than their mfg PMI.
    ISM Service PMI-Reliable source and closely followed.
    Beige Book- Economic report used by Fed for policy discussions.
    Bank of Canada Decision. No rate changes seen for now. .

Time   Country Title Cons Last
28/05/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
29/05/14 0:00 CH Holiday n/a n/a
29/05/14 0:00 EZ Holiday n/a n/a
29/05/14 0:50 JP Retail Sales yy Apr -3.20% 11.00%
29/05/14 0:50 JP Ind Out Aprp yy 4.60% 7.40%
29/05/14 12:30 CA Cur/Acct C$b -13 -16
29/05/14 12:30 CA GDP mm Apr n/a 0.20%
29/05/14 12:30 US GDP 1Q14p -0.50% 0.10%
29/05/14 12:30 US Initial Claims 315 326
29/05/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 2.65 2.653
29/05/14 14:00 US Pending Homes 1.00% 3.40%
29/05/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 106
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Crude mn n/a -7.2
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 0.97
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 3.4
29/05/14 15:00 US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.70%
29/05/14 17:00 TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
30/05/14 0:00 FRIDAY
30/05/14 0:30 JP Unemploy Mar 3.60% 3.60%
30/05/14 0:30 JP Core CPI Mar 3.10% 1.30%
30/05/14 0:30 JP CPI yy n/a 1.60%
30/05/14 6:00 DE RetSls m Apr 0.30% 0.10%
30/05/14 6:00 DE RetSls y 1.50% -1.10%
30/05/14 7:00 CH KOF Ind May n/a 102
30/05/14 12:30 US PCE defl y 1.30% 1.30%
30/05/14 12:30 US Per Inc Mar 0.30% 0.50%
30/05/14 13:45 US Chicago PMI 61 63
30/05/14 13:55 US U Mich final 82.5 81.6
30/05/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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