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Friday June 6, 2014 - 15:38:05 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: US Employment Levels Pass 2008 Pre-Recession Highs

Fri, 06 Jun 2014 11:23 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: -0.5% v -0.2%e
- (RU) Russia May Official Reserve Assets: $467.2B v $471.0Be
- (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May 30th: $312.4B v $312.7B prior
- (PL) Poland May Official Reserves: $102.7B v $102.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil May IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.3%e
- (CL) Chile May CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.6%e; CPI Core M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e
- (US) May Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +217K v +215Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +216K v +210Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10K v +10Ke
- (US) May Unemployment Rate: 6.3% v 6.4%e; Underemployment Rate: 12.2% v 12.3% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 62.8% v 62.8% prior; Change in Household Employment: +145K v -73K prior
- (US) May Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e; Average Weekly Hours: 34.5 v 34.5e
- (CA) Canada May Net Change in Employment: +25.8K v +25.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.0% v 6.9%e; Full Time Employment Change: -29.1K v -30.9K prior; Part Time Employment Change: +54.9K v +2K prior; Participation Rate: 66.1% v 66.2%e
- (CA) Canada Q1 Labor Productivity Q/Q: -0.1% v 0.0%e
- (MX) Mexico Apr Leading Indicators M/M: +0.03 v -0.04 prior
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) cut Overnight Rate by 50 bps to 3.00% from 3.50% prior

- The S&P500 and the DJIA closed at all-time highs yesterday afternoon and are heading even higher this morning after the very solid May US jobs report. As of writing, the DJIA is up 0.38%, the S&P500 is up 0.41% and the Nasdaq is up 0.53%.

- Five years into the US economic recovery, total payrolls have finally passed their pre-recession 2008 highs. All in all, the US economy lost 8.7 million jobs during the Great Recession and today total employment is about 98K jobs above the prior high, at around 138.46 million. Commentators say this is the longest jobs recovery on record, according to Department of Labor statistics. The May payrolls were more or less as expected, but lower than the revised 282K April figure. Long-term unemployed showed signs of getting work, with people unemployed more than 26 weeks fell -78K and those unemployed 15-26 weeks declined -92K. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours as expected, but hourly earnings were slightly stronger than anticipated

- Yields on Italian and Spanish government bonds touched all-time lows this morning, thanks to ECB action plus an assist from Madrid. Spain disclosed that it would start paying back its 41 billion EU/IMF aid package years ahead of schedule. Madrid will pay back 1.3 billion euros in 2014, even though payments were not due until 2022. The Spanish government also launched an economic stimulus package targeted at regions, consumers and SMEs. Yields on Spain's 10-year government debt declined to 2.642% from 2.79% earlier. Yields on Italy, Greece and Portugal came in as well. Moves in EUR/USD continue to be choppy, as the pair bounces around between 1.3620 and 1.3675.

- Shares of Hertz are getting hammered this morning after the company warned that its first-quarter results would be below consensus and disclosed a material weakness in its financial reporting that would require restating three years of results. Last month, Hertz delayed the release of its first-quarter earnings until June 9, but those plans have been scrapped. Metrics disclosed about Q1 business were not too bad, however costs of the accounting review would hold back earnings. HTZ fell as much as 11% in the premarket but is only down about 9% as of writing.

- Press reports out earlier this morning caused a bit of a kerfuffle in shares of Sears Holdings. Reports said Sears controlling shareholder Eddie Lampert met with Ford CEO Mulally earlier this year for advice on how to turn around the retailer. Mulally is due to step down in July and some thought Lampert was sounding him out as Sears' next CEO. CNBC caught up with Mulally and his non-denial of the reports sent shares higher. As of writing, SHLD is up nearly 3%.

***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) Ireland, Italy Sovereign Debt Rating may be published by S&P
- (EU) Finland, EFSF and ESM Sovereign Debt Rating may be published by Moody's
- 15:00 (US) Apr Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $17.5B prior
- (CO) Colombia May CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.9% prior




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