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Friday June 6, 2014 - 15:58:32 GMT
Lloyds TSB Financial Markets -

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  • Markets digest ECB stimulus package
  • UK unemployment rate set to drop to 6.7% in April
  • US May retail sales to support expectations of Q2 GDP rebound

Post-ECB calm... Over the coming week, markets will continue to pick apart the detail of the policy measures announced by the ECB. Judging by the reaction to date, markets appear underwhelmed, with EUR/USD currently trading above where it was prior to the ECB meeting. The ECB’s monthly economic report (Thurs) will provide some further colour around the staff’s central economic projections. With little data in the euro area, industrial production provides the main focus in the coming week. We expect a 0.4% rise in April.

UK unemployment continues to drop...  The contrasting policy pressures facing the UK and euro area remain stark. In comparison with the euro area, the domestic policy debate remains tilted towards the prospects for tighter monetary policy. The flow of data over the coming week will do little to change market expectations that the Bank of England will be the first of the major central banks to raise interest rates.

The main focus in the coming week will be on the labour market data. First up (Mon) is our own Employment Confidence survey. This will be watched closely, alongside the official figures (Wed), for signs of labour market strength in Q2. The official data is expected to show a further strong improvement, with the unemployment rate forecast to drop from 6.8% to 6.7% in April. Over the remainder of the week, releases of April industrial production (Tues) and construction output (Fri) will provide the first official insight into economic conditions in Q2. Both are expected to point to a firm start to the quarter.

Mansion House watched for policy clues... A relatively busy UK data week is supplemented with the annual Mansion House event. Against a background of firmer activity, comments from the Chancellor and BoE Governor are likely to be more upbeat than in previous years. However, it is doubtful that the message from Governor Carney will be materially different from those previously delivered at the May Inflation Report press conference. Still, markets will be scrutinising his comments for any hint of possible action from the Financial Policy Committee, which meets on the 17th June.

US economy on course for Q2 rebound... Data over the past week has largely been consistent with the view that economic growth is picking up in the second quarter after stagnating during the winter months. Although there is a limited amount of data, the coming week will be watched for further signs of this. It is also a light one for Fed speakers, as the FOMC goes into ‘purdah’ after Monday, before the policy meeting on 17/18th June.

The most significant data will be May retail sales (Thurs). We expect these to post a strong above consensus rise of 0.9%m/m (consensus: 0.5%m/m) - driven mainly by dealer reports of strong car sales. Excluding autos, sales are expected to rise 0.5% (consensus 0.4%). Having risen sharply over the past two months, May producer prices (Fri) will also be of interest. These figures were extensively revised earlier this year and now cover a much wider cross-section of the economy. While over time, they should become a more meaningful gauge for inflation, to date, the outcomes have been volatile. We expect a rise of 0.2%. Business inventories (Thurs), NFIB small business optimism (Tues) and Consumer sentiment (Fri) are also of note. 

Elsewhere... Official data from China should indicate that economic activity stabilised in May. External trade data (Sun) is expected to show the trade balance rose to $21.6bn in May from $18.5bn in April. In general, other May monthly indicators, including industrial production, are forecast to improve. The exception, however, is likely to be fixed asset investment, which is expected to record an eighth consecutive annual decline (on a year to date basis). May CPI is forecast to accelerate from 1.8% to 2.3%, but this is still well below the government's target of 3.5%.




This document, its contents and any related communication (altogether, the 'Communication') does not constitute or form part of any offer to sell or an invitation to subscribe for, hold or purchase any securities or any other investment. This Communication shall not form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This Communication is not intended to form, and should not form, the basis of any investment decision. This Communication is not and should not be treated as investment research, a research recommendation, an opinion or advice. Recipients should conduct their own independent enquiries and obtain their own professional legal, regulatory, tax or accounting advice as appropriate. Any transaction which a recipient of this Communication may subsequently enter into may only be on the basis of such enquiries and advice, and that recipient’s own knowledge and experience. This Communication has been prepared by, and is subject to the copyright of, Lloyds. This Communication may not, in whole or in part, be reproduced, transmitted, stored in a retrieval system or translated in any other language in any form, by any means without the prior written consent of Lloyds. This Communication is provided for information purposes only, and is confidential and may not be referred to, disclosed, reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, to any other person. This Communication is based on current public information.


 Whilst Lloyds TSB ank plc (“Lloyds TSB”) and Bank of Scotland plc ("Bank of Scotland") have exercised reasonable care in preparing this material and any views or information expressed or presented are based on sources it believes to be accurate and reliable, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the facts and data contained herein.


This material has been prepared for information purposes only and Lloyds TSB, Bank of Scotland, their directors, officers and employees are not responsible for any consequences arising from any reliance upon such information. Under no circumstances should this material be treated as an offer or solicitation to offer, to buy or sell any product or enter into any transaction. If you receive information from us which is inconsistent with other information which you have received from us, you should refer this to your Lloyds TSB or Bank of Scotland Relationship Manager for clarification.


Lloyds Bank Corporate Markets, Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets and Lloyds TSB are trading names of Lloyds TSB Bank plc, Lloyds TSB Scotland plc and Bank of Scotland plc. Lloyds TSB Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Lloyds TSB Scotland plc. Registered Office: Henry Duncan House, 120 George Street, Edinburgh EH2 4LH. Registered in Scotland no. 95237. Bank of Scotland plc. Registered Office: The Mound, Edinburgh EH1 1YZ. Registered in Scotland no. SC32700. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority under registration numbers 119278, 191240 and 169628 respectively




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