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Markets in a Risk Off Posture to Start the New Week. Active U.S. Calendar.

Markets in a Risk Off Posture to Start the New Week. Active U.S. Calendar.
June 16, 2014 09:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets are in a risk-off posture to start the new week, as traders continue to worry about the implications  of a possible disintegration of Iraq on global energy prices.. Oil prices are higher again today.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are mostly lower, while yields on the periphery are mixed.
  • U.K. yields are modestly lower.BOE Governor Carney has sent a clear message that interest rates could rise earlier than generally expected. Some see a +25bp rate hike by yearend  U.S. yields are easier early The U.S. 10-yr is 2.58%, -3. bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe are lower. U.S. shares are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: US- Industrial Production
  • Trade Monday  will get off to an active start with an active calendar in store, with final May EZ inflation figures due (HICP)  among with a number of closely followed U.S. releases. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
  • After an extended period of low volatility  triggered in large part by executives liquidity by the major central banks, I feel we are at a point where trading is going to start to open up again as monetary policies and relative economic growth patterns start to emerge. This is s "normal" state of affairs.
  • Friday's economic calendar features  US  PPI  data and the preliminary monthly University of Michigan Survey. See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.

    TRADING PLANNER
    FRIDAY 13 June 2014
    • JP- BOJ - No rate change
    • US- PPI- Part of the picture
    • US- Univ of Mich Survey prelim-  Key data

    MONDAY 16 June 2014
    • EZ- CPI- ECB targets Inflation
    • US- TIC Flows- Watched closely by some
    • US-  Industrial  Production- Key cyclical indicator 

    TUESDAY 17June 2014
    • GB-  CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
    • DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
    • US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
    • US- CPI- Price metric for Fed

    WEDNESDAY
    18 June 2014
    • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
    • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
    • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

    THURSDAY 19 June 2014
    • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
    • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
    • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

    FRIDAY 20 June 2014
    • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
    • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric



    FOREX CALENDAR
    Time   Country Title Cons Last
    16/06/14 12:30 US Empire PMI 15 19
    16/06/14 13:00 US TIC L-T Flows Mar n/a 4
    16/06/14 13:00 US TIC Net Flows $b n/a n/a
    16/06/14 13:15 US Ind Prod Jan 0.50% -0.60%
    16/06/14 13:15 US Cap Util 78.90% 78.60%
    16/06/14 14:00 US NAHB Index 45 45
    17/06/14 0:00 TUESDAY
    17/06/14 8:30 GB C-Out PPI y 1.10% 1.00%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB CPI mm May 0.20% 0.40%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB CPI yy 1.70% 1.80%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB RPI-X 2.60% 26%
    17/06/14 9:00 DE ZEW Conditions 62.1 62.1
    17/06/14 9:00 DE ZEW Expectations 35 33.1
    17/06/14 12:30 US House Starts 1040 1072
    17/06/14 12:30 US House Permits 1060 1059
    17/06/14 12:30 US CPI m Apr 0.20% 0.30%
    17/06/14 12:30 US CPI yy 2.00% 2.00%
    17/06/14 12:30 US core CPI m 0.20% 0.20%
    17/06/14 12:30 US core CPI yy 1.80% 1.80%
    17/06/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
    17/06/14 23:50 JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
    18/06/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    18/06/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    18/06/14 12:30 US Current Account -96.6 -81.1
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.6
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.7
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.86
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 87.90%
    18/06/14 18:00 FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    18/06/14 18:30 FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
    19/06/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    19/06/14 5:00 JP Ind Out Mayf yy n/a 4.10%
    19/06/14 7:30 CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm -0.50% 1.30%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 4.30% 6.90%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm -0.40% 1.80%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 7.70%
    19/06/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
    19/06/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 314 317
    19/06/14 12:30 US Initial Claims n/a 2164
    19/06/14 14:00 US Philly Fed 14 15.4
    19/06/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.40%
    19/06/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 107


    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.


    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of Global-View.com,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved

 

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