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Monday June 16, 2014 - 10:02:36 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Geo-political risks continue to simmer on front burner

Mon, 16 Jun 2014 5:15 AM EST

- Formal deadline has passed for Ukraine to have made gas payment to Russia's Gazprom; prepayment conditions now imposed

- Oil and precious metal continued to be supported by geopolitical concerns in Middle-East

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India May Wholesale Prices WPI) Y/Y: 6.0% v 5.4%e; matches 5-month high

- (CZ) Czech May PPI Industrial M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Apr Export Price Index Y/Y: 3.1 v 3.3% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: 0.8 v 1.3% prior
- (TR) Turkey Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.7% v 10.2% prior
- (DK) Denmark May PPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.0% prior
- (AT) Austria May CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.7% prior
- (EU) ECB 11M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 16.0M prior; 17.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 16.9B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions
- (NO) Norway May Trade Balance (NOK): 26.8B v 31.6B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May CPI M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.7%e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%
, FTSE 100 -0.1% at 6,773, DAX -0.3% at 9,888, CAC-40 -0.4% at 4,525, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 11,047, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 22,053, SMI -0.1% at 8,644, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 1,924]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European markets opened lower after violence in Ukraine and Iraq over the weekend spooked investors. Losses were kept in check after Gazprom promised to continue to keep supplying gas to Western Europe via Ukraine and the ISIS failed to mount an attack on Bagdad.

By Sector
- Industrial
[Alstom ALO.FR +0.6% (final offers from bidder seen soon), HeidelbergCement HEI.DE +1.1% (Planning to sell its building products unit)]
- Consumer Discretionary [GTech GTK.IT -1.4% (in talks to acquire IGT)
- Energy [RWE AG RWE.DE -0.7% (Regulators probe Dea unit sale), Gazprom GAZP.RU -1.6% (Switches Ukraine to prepayment for gas)
- Healthcare [Actelion ATLN.CH +14% (positive Phase III results), Smith & Nephew SN.UK -2.5% (no deal seen after Medtronic buys of Covidien )]
- Telecom [Sky Deutschland SKYD.DE +3.1% (BskyB may acquire company)]
- Financials [BNP Paribas BNP.FR 0.0% (may have agreed to settlement including slightly lower fine)]

- Sweden Central Bank (Riskbank) Business Survey
noted that economic activity was now stronger with companies planning to raise prices moderately over the next 12 months
- Poland Central Bank's Kozinski stated that he saw no domestic reasons for long-term deflation. The PLN currency (Zloty) volatility might increase in the short-term from ECB measures but that the Central Bank had the tools to prevent large Zloty fluctuations
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci reiterated view that inflation would begin to fall in June data and improvement in current account to continue. Central bank won't hesitate using instruments for stability and sought to bring inflation to around 5.0% in 2015
- India RBI advisor Goyal: India interest rates have peaked and he did not see USD/INR much beyond 60.00 handle
- Japan PM Abe reiterated that Japan was escaping from deflation and it was irrational to invest mostly in bonds when economy is growing
- South Korea Finance Ministry official: South Korea won't adjust fx policy with new minister
- Iraqi Kurd Peshmerga Min Yawar stated that it controlled all oil facilities around Kirkuk and that the Iraqi army had abandoned all northern areas disputed by Kurds. Iraqi North Oil Co. operating under Kurd protection. ISIS held part of halted Iraq oil export pipeline
- Russia State TV: No gas payment received from Ukraine before the deadline
- Gazprom: Moving Ukraine to prepayment for gas; total outstanding debt at $4.46B; It confirmed they were sending full volumes of gas to Europe and doing all it could to ensure stable gas transit. Gazprom did alert EU on possible gas transit risk and that Ukraine should provide sovereign guarantees for gas payments. Ukraine would only receive gas paid in advance
- EU Energy Min Oettinger: Ukraine on the brink of payment ability. Both EU and IMF would help Ukraine meet obligations

Currencies/Fixed Income:
- GBP/USD tested above $1.70 for its highest level since July 2009. The GBP currency continue to be aided by anticipation that BOE could hike rates later this year. Over the weekend BOE's Bean noted that higher interest rates should be welcomed as a sign that Britain's economy was returning to normal. Various analysts continued to bring forward their cals for the first BOE rate hike.
- The EUR/USD continues to hold just above the post ECB low of 1.3503 set back on Jun 5th.
- Mid-East geo-political risks continued to put a bid into several commodities. Oil prices tested 107.50 during the Asian session while Gold hit 3-week high above 1280/oz and spot silver hit 1-month high above 19.80/oz

Political/In the Weekend Papers:
- (UR) 49 Ukraine military personnel were killed when pro-Russian separatists shot down a military supply plane near Luhansk airport - financial press
- ISIS (militant) overrun Tal Afar but progress towards Baghdad slowed but violence spreads to North Western towns near Syria border
- (IQ) US has moved an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf to increase military options needed; Iran: stated that it was ready to help Iraq if asked but no request received yet
- (EU) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) rejected calls from France and Italy for a deliberate devaluation of the euro noting that competitiveness could not be induced by devaluation
- (UK) BOE's Bean: Higher interest rates should be welcomed as a sign that Britain's economy is returning to normal
- (AU) RBA Asst Gov Kent: AUD high by historic standards given commodity price fall; Labor markets showing some signs of improving
- (CN) PBoC to expand reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to several top joint-stock banks in China; To cut RRR for Minsheng Bank, Industrial Bank by 50bps - Chinese blog citing Wind HK

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (FI) Finland PM Katainen to tender resignation
- (CH) Swiss Parliament holds Summer Session in Bern this week
- (IR) Iran, World Powers hold Nuclear Talks in Vienna through Friday, Jun 20th
- (HU) Hungary Supreme Court completes FX Loan Rulings
- (BR) Brazil Jun CNI Industrial Confidence: No est v 48 prior
- (PE) Peru May Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.3% prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Economic Activity Y/Y: No est v 4.9% prior
- (PT) Bank of Portugal report on Banking System
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 6-month BuBills
- 05:30 (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave 1-week auction rate unchanged at 7.50%

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Preliminary GDP Annualized: 2.3%e v 2.1% prior
- 06:00 (IL) Israel Q1 Current Account Balance: No est v $2.2B prior
- 06:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell 2016, 2019, 2021, 2024 and 2042 bonds
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.6%e v +0.1% prior
- 07:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON300M in Bonds
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland May CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Apr Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v -C$1.2B prior
- 08:30 (US) Jun Empire Manufacturing: 15.00e v 19.01 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.1-7.3B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (US) Apr Net Long-term TIC Flows: $37.5Be v $4.0B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$126.1B prior

- 09:00 (PL) Poland May YTD Budget Balance Level (PLN): No est v -21.3B prior; Budget Balance Performance: No est v 44.8% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Trade Balance: No est v -689.5M prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada May Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 2.7% prior
- 09:15 (US) May Industrial Production M/M: +0.5%e v -0.6% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.9%e v 78.6% prior; Manufacturing Production M/M: +0.6%e v -0.4% prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (US) Jun NAHB Housing Market Index: 47e v 45 prior
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell I/L 2019, 2023, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Bonds
- 11:00 (US) Fed Purchase $2.25-3.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $48B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 8.3% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 9.8% prior
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Minutes of June Meeting




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