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Markets Off to a Cautious Start Monday Amid Political Concerns. Active U.S. Calendar

Markets Off to a Cautious Start Monday Amid Political Concerns.  Active U.S. Calendar
June 17, 2014 00:00 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

  • Markets remain in rough a risk-off posture , as traders continue to worry about the implications  of a possible disintegration of Iraq on global energy prices.. Oil prices are now off their highs of the day.
  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets closed mixed, while yields on the periphery were mostly higher.
  • U.K. yields ended higher. Many see a +25bp BOE rate hike by yearend  U.S. yields steady on the day The U.S. 10-yr is 2.61%, 0 bp.
  • Equities closed mixed in the Far East earlier. Bourses in Europe were mostly lower. U.S. shares are up.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS ITEMS: GB- CPI, RPI-X, DE- ZEW Survey, US- House Starts & Permits
  • Trade Tuesday see a number of key data releases from the U.K. Germany and the U.S. that have the potential to move prices. See "High impact releases  in red just above this paragraph.  See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.
  • After an extended period of low volatility  triggered in large part by executives liquidity by the major central banks, I feel we are at a point where trading is going to start to open up again as monetary policies and relative economic growth patterns start to emerge. This is s "normal" state of affairs.
  • This week's economic calendar features: UK inflation data Tuesday along with the German ZEW Survey. Also on Tuesday U.S. housings Starts and CPI data are slated. On Wednesday, the focus will be on the tone of the Yellen press conference following the Fed policy decision. Thursday sees the quarterly SNB policy meeting and UK retail sales data. On Friday, Canadian CPI and retail sales figures are due.   See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.


    TUESDAY 17June 2014
    • GB-  CPI, RPIX etc.- BOE targets inflation
    • DE- ZEW Survey- key sentiment index
    • US- Housing Starts & Permits- Key housing Statistic
    • US- CPI- Price metric for Fed

    18 June 2014
    • GB- BOE Policy Minutes- latest policy decision
    • US- Current Account- broadest measure of trade
    • US-  Fed Decision + Presser-  policy outlook key  

    THURSDAY 19 June 2014
    • CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
    • UK- Retail Sales- top economic metric
    • US- Weekly Jobless- most current read on jobs

    FRIDAY 20 June 2014
    • CA- Retail Sales- dated but key data
    • CA- CPI- BOC policy metric

    Time   Country Title Cons Last
    17/06/14 0:00 TUESDAY
    17/06/14 8:30 GB C-Out PPI y 1.10% 1.00%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB CPI mm May 0.20% 0.40%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB CPI yy 1.70% 1.80%
    17/06/14 8:30 GB RPI-X 2.60% 26%
    17/06/14 9:00 DE ZEW Conditions 62.1 62.1
    17/06/14 9:00 DE ZEW Expectations 35 33.1
    17/06/14 12:30 US House Starts 1040 1072
    17/06/14 12:30 US House Permits 1060 1059
    17/06/14 12:30 US CPI m Apr 0.20% 0.30%
    17/06/14 12:30 US CPI yy 2.00% 2.00%
    17/06/14 12:30 US core CPI m 0.20% 0.20%
    17/06/14 12:30 US core CPI yy 1.80% 1.80%
    17/06/14 20:30 US API Energy n/a n/a
    17/06/14 23:50 JP BOJ Minutes n/a n/a
    18/06/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
    18/06/14 8:30 GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    18/06/14 12:30 US Current Account -96.6 -81.1
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Crude mn n/a -2.6
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Gasoline mn n/a 1.7
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.86
    18/06/14 14:30 US EIA Cap Util n/a 87.90%
    18/06/14 18:00 FRB Fed Rates 0.25% 0.25%
    18/06/14 18:30 FRB Press Conference n/a n/a
    19/06/14 0:00 THURSDAY
    19/06/14 5:00 JP Ind Out Mayf yy n/a 4.10%
    19/06/14 7:30 CH SNB 0.00% 0.00%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls mm -0.50% 1.30%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls yy 4.30% 6.90%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls x-fuel mm -0.40% 1.80%
    19/06/14 8:30 GB Ret Sls X-fuel yy 4.80% 7.70%
    19/06/14 10:00 GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 32
    19/06/14 12:30 US Cont Claims 314 317
    19/06/14 12:30 US Initial Claims n/a 2164
    19/06/14 14:00 US Philly Fed 14 15.4
    19/06/14 14:00 US Lead Ind 0.60% 0.40%
    19/06/14 14:30 US Nat Gas bcf n/a 107

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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