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Friday June 20, 2014 - 10:09:14 GMT
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Fri, 20 Jun 2014 5:15 AM EST ***Notes/Observations*** - Triple witching option expiration Friday - Quiet EU session; dealers reflected on recent gold move higher on the premise the Fed might be comfortable with higher inflation if it meant faster economic growth ***Economic Data*** - (UK) Retailer John Lewis reports weekly LFL Partnership sales for week ending Jun 14th: 4.6% v 8.7% prior - (DE) Germany May PPI M/M: -0.2% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e - (FR) France Q1 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim - (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Jun 13th (RUB): 8.22T v 8.06T prior - (JP) Japan May Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.8% v -2.2% prior - (DK) Denmark Jun Consumer Confidence Indicator: 9.3 v 7.0e - (DK) Denmark May Retail Sales M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.6% prior - (EU) ECB €2M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €266.0M prior; €22.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €28.5B prior - Daily Eurosystem Liquidity Conditions - (NL) Netherlands Apr Consumer Spending Y/Y: -0.1% v -2.4% prior - (NL) Netherlands Jun Consumer Confidence Index: -2 v 0e - (NL) Netherlands May House Price Index M/M: -0.1% v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 0.1% prior - (TW) Taiwan May Export Orders Y/Y: 4.7% v 7.2%e - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account (Seasonally Adj): €21.5B v €19.6B prior; Current Account NSA (unadj): €18.7B v €21.6B prior - (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Sales M/M: -0.2% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.6% prior - (IT) Italy Apr Industrial Orders M/M: 3.8% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: 6.2% v 2.8% prior - (CN) Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Weekly Copper Stockpiles: 75.5K v 81.9K prior - (GR) Greece Apr Current Account Balance: -€1.2B v -€44M prior - (UK) May Public Finances (PSNCR): +£8.5B v -£10.6B prior; Public Sector Net Borrowing: £11.5B v £12.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: £13.3B v £8.7Be - (MY) Malaysia May CPI Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.3%e Fixed Income: - (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2022, 2028, 2030 and 2043 bonds *** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** ***Equities*** Indices [Stoxx50 flat, FTSE 100 +0.3% at 6,829, DAX +0.1% at 10,012, CAC-40 flat at 4,563, IBEX-35 flat at 11,193, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 22,095, SMI +0.2% at 8,693, S&P 500 Futures flat at 1,950] - Market Focal Points/Focal Points: Equity markets open mostly lower following mixed trading in Asia and Thursday's gains, DAX continues to hover below prior record high, M&A in focus (Shire rises after Abbvie confirmed approach, Alstom up amid revised offers from Siemens/Mitsubishi and GE), IPOs (TSB rises in first day of trading, while Euronext trades lower), Oracle results weigh on SAP, Moncler declines on share placement, EDF's shares remain heavy after Thursday's sharp losses, Debenhams supported by Q3 results, Gold miners track recent rise in gold prices, BP dividend payment date By Sector - Industrials [Alstom ALO.FR +1% (revised offers from Siemens and GE); Bellzone Mining BZM.UK -14% (dispute with contractor)] - Technology [Gemalto GTO.NL -1.5% (unfavorable patent ruling)] - Telecom [Telecom Italia TIT.IT -2% (speculation Telefonica to sell the firm's convertible bonds on the market), Telenor TEL.NO -1.5% (share placement speculation)] - Financials [Banca Monte Paschi BMPS.IT (volatile trading continues on last day of rights trading)] - Consumer Discretionary [Bang & Olufsen BO.DK +5% (priced share offering), Debenhams DEB.UK +1% (14-week LFL sales +0.7%, reaffirmed outlook)] - Stoxx50 sectors [Telecom -0.4%, Financials -0.4%, Utilities -0.3%; Basic Materials +0.5%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Consumer Cyclical +0.1%, Energy +0.1%, Technology +0.3%, Industrials flat] Speakers: - ECB's Coeure (France) stated that negative rates has been smooth process thus far, expected no adjustment on rates at any time soon - Bundesbank's Dombret: Property price rise has spread to mid-sized German cities from big cities, but sees no property bubble - (LV) Fitch raised Latvia Sovereign Debt Rating to A-; outlook stable - Poland Central Bank Official Rzonca noted in regards to leaked tape scandal that officials should check if Gov Belka has engaged in politics and if he did then have to re-think whether he can stay on his post. - Russia PM Medvedev: To challenger certain US sanctions in WTO - Russia Central Bank Gov Nabiullina stated that the country's economic slowdown was structural and something that monetary policy could not overcome - Ukraine Finance Ministry makes $73.3M coupon payment on Eurobond to Russia - Russia Defense Ministry said to be continuing series of unplanned checks to determine troop readiness. Said to have placed troops in central district on alert (refers to Urals Mountains and Western Siberia). According to a related Russian media report, Russia was not concentrating troops along Ukraine's border, but strengthening security along the border. - Japan Cabinet Office (govt) Jun Monthly Report maintained its overall economic assessment for a 2nd straight month (as expected) noting that the domestic economy was undergoing moderate recovery despite some weakness after sales tax increase - BoJ Senior Official reiterated that it would be inappropriate to say if QQE would be terminated automatically in 2 years irrespective of economic developments - China Premier Li Keqiang: Willing to cooperate with world in regards to sea dispute Currencies/Fixed Income: - FX price action was quiet ahead of the weekend with no major data releases seen. - The GBP/USD continued to grind out fresh 5-year highs trying to end the week above the pivotal 1.7050 area as dealers note that the BoE rhetoric turned increasingly hawkish - Market reflected on the gold price action over the last 24 hours as investors expressed much more confidence in the Yellen Fed tolerating inflation Political/In the Papers: - (EU) ECB's Visco (Italy): There is no obvious deflationary environment in the EMU, inflation is persistently low - (EU) IMF issues commentary on the EMU: inflation is worryingly low, reiterates ECB should consider large scale asset purchases if inflation remains low - (UK) BoE said to be prepared to place limits on the balance sheets of banks - FT - (CN) China may announce more minor stimulus measures; Tunes of micro-stimulus has not been changed following Premier Li Keqiang's comment on China to work to achieve growth target of 7.5% **Looking Ahead*** All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) - (ES) Spain Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's - (NO) Norway Sovereign Debt Rating May Be Published by Moody's - 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell Bonds - 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. €5.0Be - 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined £3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills - 06:30 (ES) ECB supervisory board SSM's Restoy Speaks in Santander - 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing - 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank (TCMB) Survey of Expectations - 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jun: No est v $312.6B prior yu - 08:00 (RU) Russia May Unemployment Rate 5.2%e v 5.3% prior - 08:00 (RU) Russia May Retail Sales - 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index - 08:30 (CA) Canada Apr Retail Sales M/M: +0.6%e v -0.1% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior - 08:30 (CA) Canada May CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 125.2 prior - 08:30 (CA) Canada May CPI Core M/M: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.4% prior - 08:30 (CA) Canada May CPI (Seasonally Adj) M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Core SA M/M: No est v 0.2% prior - 09:00 (MX) Mexico Apr Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.3%e v +1.7% prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes - 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Jun Advance Consumer Confidence: -6.5%e v -7.1 prior - (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise Overnight Lending by 25bps to 4.00% - (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists



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