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Monday July 7, 2014 - 09:20:57 GMT -

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EURUSD Testing 1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth

EURUSD Testing 1.36. Focus on Interest Rates and Relative Growth
July 7, 2014 09:30 gmt
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

European Markets are in a mild risk-off posture early Monday as the latest U.S. employment report and ECB meeting are row in the rear-view mirror. The EURUSD is still pivoting the1.3600 level.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are narrowly mixed. Yields on the European periphery are up slightly. The German 10-yr bund is 1.26%, +1bp.
  • U.K. gilt  yields are steady.  The 10-yr gilt is 2.75%  0bp. Odds favor one +25bp BOE short-term rate hike by yearend.
  • U.S.10-yr  yield  is 2.64%,  0 bp.
  • Equities closed mostly loweer in the Far East. Bourses in Europe are slightly lower. U.S. share futures are down.

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).


      • On Friday, the EURUSD traded and closed below the 1.3600 line. Relative economic performance suggests the EURUSD SHOULD trade lower over time, but unusual unidentified demand for the EUR has been  providing support.
      • Odds are over time that widening interest rates vs. the EUR will take its toll on the currency.
      • This week gets off to slow start following the active calendar in the previous period. The first headline item is the latest FOMC minutes on Wednesday afternoon. Thursday sees Australian employment data and the July Bank of England policy decision. On Friday Canadian employment data are due. final June Service PMI data missed street estimates This index is well below its peaks from eight months ago.
      • See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they are released.
      Weekly Trading Planner

      TUESDAY  July 8, 2014 
      CH CPI
      WEDNESDAY July 9, 2014
      CN CPI
      US  TRY 10-yr
      US Fed Minutes
      THURSDAY July 10, 2014
      AU Employment
      CN Trade
      GB Trade
      GB Bank of England
      US Weekly Jobless
      TRY TRY 30-yr
      FRIDAY July 11, 2014
      CA Employment

      Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
      07/07/14 14:00 A CA Ivey PMI n/a 46.2
      07/07/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a
      08/07/14 0:00 TUESDAY
      08/07/14 7:00 B DE Trade eur bn 16.2 17.4
      08/07/14 7:15 A CH CPI mm n/a n/a
      08/07/14 7:15 A CH CPI yy 0.20% 0.20%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output m 0.30% 0.40%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Ind Output y 3.25% 3.00%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output m 0.40% 0.40%
      08/07/14 8:30 B GB Mfg Output yy 8.60% 4.40%
      08/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI mm n/a 0.30%
      08/07/14 12:30 A CA CPI yy n/a 0.20%
      08/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 3-yr n/a n/a
      08/07/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
      09/07/14 0:00 WEDNESDAY
      09/07/14 1:30 CN CPI 2.40% 2.50%
      09/07/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a -3.2
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -1.2
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a 0.975
      09/07/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 91.40%
      09/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 10-yr n/a n/a
      09/07/14 18:00 A FRB Fed Minutes n/a n/a
      10/07/14 0:00 THURSDAY
      10/07/14 1:30 A AU Payrolls 12 -4.8
      10/07/14 1:30 A AU % Jobless 5.90% 5.80%
      10/07/14 1:30 A CN Trade 36.9 35.92
      10/07/14 8:30 A GB Visible Trade -8.75 -8.92
      10/07/14 8:30 A GB Trade- Non-EU -3.5 -3.78
      10/07/14 11:00 A GB Bank of England 0.50% 0.50%
      10/07/14 11:00 A GB QE GBP bn 375 375
      10/07/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 315 315
      10/07/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.579
      10/07/14 14:00 B US Wholesale Inventories 0.60% 1.10%
      10/07/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 98
      10/07/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 30-yr n/a n/a

      calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

      See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

      John M. BlandJohn M. Bland, is a founding partner of,  and an author. He has been an FX consultant for a money center. bank, a forex trader for a N.Y. institution, and a FX analyst for a top Fed watching service. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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