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Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday

Focus on Risk of ECB Ease Next Thursday. Bund Yields Fall. Active Data Calendar on Thursday
August 28, 2014 00:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Europe markets are ending in a  RISK-OFF posture with bond yields falling heading into the ECB meeting in a week's.time. Before that flash August CPI data on Friday could be decisive. I find the continued ECB foot-dragging to be an ongoing disappointment. holding below the1.3200 line.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets have fallen on a dovish ECB view. The 10-yr bund is 0.91%  -4bp. The 10-yr 1.00% line remains an obvious market benchmark. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K. 10-yr gilt  yield is 2.37%  -8bp. I expect a +25bp BOE rate hike in February 2015, subject to future data.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.37%, -2bp.. The psychological pivot is 2.40%.
  • Far East equities closed mostly higher. Bourses in Europe are mixed to lower. U.S. shares are roughly steady..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: DE- Unemployment, CA- Current Account US- Weekly Jobs, GDP, Pending Homes Sales
  • Thursday features German employment data,  U.S. Weekly  jobless, revised GDP, and Pending Homes Sales.
  • A key focus of trade Wednesday was the upcoming ECB decision due in just over one week's time. Coming into the day,  ECB President Draghi was expected to announce or at least hint at additional policy ease. Reuters carried a story over the session citing ECB sources as saying that no new ECB action is likely at this meeting. But then they indicated that the flash August EZ CPI report on Friday could be decisive.
  • Yesterday, we heard (unconfirmed) of reports of a secret agreement between Yellen an Draghi to weaken the EURUSD. To me this is a logical possibility.
  • Friday sees a slew of Japanese monthend data, German Retail Sales and the flash EZ CPI. The U.S. releases Personal Income, the Chicago PMI and final University of Michigan Sentiment.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

17:00 TRY 5-yr Auction
07:55 DE Unemployment Key ECB metric
12:30 US Initial Claims  Employment measure
12:30 US GDP 2Q14 preliminary  Broadest measure of economy
14:00 US Pending Homes Existing Homes Predictor
17:00 TRY 7-yr Auction
00:30 JP CPI BOJ Target
06:00 DE Retail Sales Consumer demand
09:00 EZ flash HICP  ECB Target
12:30 CA GDP  Broadest measure of economy
12:30 US PCE deflator Fed Target
13:55 US U Mich Survey final Important sentiment survey

Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unem Kchg -5 -12
28/08/14 7:55 A DE unempl rate 6.70% 6.70%
28/08/14 9:00 C EZ Cons Conf -9 -8.4
28/08/14 10:00 B GB CBI Dist Trades 25 21
28/08/14 12:30 A CA Cur/Acct C$b -12 -12.4
28/08/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims 2.513 2.5
28/08/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 298
28/08/14 12:30 A US GDP 2Q14 prelim 3.90% 4.00%
28/08/14 14:00 A US Pending Homes 0.50% -1.10%
28/08/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf 82 88
28/08/14 17:00 A TRY TRY 7-yr n/a n/a
28/08/14 23:50 A JP Ind Out p yy 0.10% 3.10%
29/08/14 0:00 FRIDAY
29/08/14 0:30 A JP Core CPI 3.30% 3.30%
29/08/14 0:30 A JP CPI yy 3.40% 3.60%
29/08/14 0:30 A JP Unemploy Mar 3.70% 3.70%
29/08/14 0:50 A JP Retail Sales yy 0.10% -0.60%
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales mo 0.10% 1.00%
29/08/14 6:00 A DE Ret Sales yr 1.50% 0.40%
29/08/14 7:00 A CH KOF Ind 97 98.1
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP yy 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 9:00 A EZ FL HICP core yy 0.80% 0.80%
29/08/14 9:00 C EZ Unemploy May 11.50% 11.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A CA GDP mm 0.20% 0.40%
29/08/14 12:30 A US PCE defl y 1.50% 1.50%
29/08/14 12:30 A US Per Inc 0.30% 0.40%
29/08/14 13:45 A US Chicago PMI 56.2 52.6
29/08/14 13:55 A US U Mich final 80.2 79.2
29/08/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
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