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ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster

ECB Decision Due. Eurozone Final PMIs Soft. U.K. Mfg PMI Weak. PMIs Elsewhere Lackluster
  October 2, 2014 0:00 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

Current Market Conditions:
Markets have moved from an early  MIXED RISK posture to a RISK-OFF positioning. I am seeing prime bond yields falling as equities sell-off  As of the European close U.S. shares are trying to stabilize. The EURUSD has been trading lower on the day.

  • Yields in prime Eurozone fixed income markets are sharply lower. The 10-yr bund is 0.906%,  -4.3% bp. Peripheral bond yields are lower.
  • The U.K.10-yr gilt yield is 2.368% -5.9 bp. BOE Gov Carney has continued to signal a Spring 2015 rate hike.
  • U.S.10-yr yield is 2.429%, -7.7bp.The Psychological focus remains on 2.50%.
  • Far East equities were mixed. China was closed for a holiday. Bourses in Europe are closing lower. U.S. shares futures are lower..

    The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields. This aligns all the colors in the chart to reflect risk-on (green) and risk-off(red).

    HIGH IMPACT NEWS: AU- Trade, GB- Construction PMI, EZ- ECB, US- Weekly Jobs, Factory Orders
  • Thursday sees the latest ECB Po;icy decision. No major changes in policy are expected. The surprise outcome would be a strong  easing of policy.
  • ADP Private Payroll data showed a gain of +213K in August vs. +202K in July. The data should have no impact on street expectations for a gain in non-farm payrolls of about that figure on Friday.
  • Eurozone final manufacturing PMIs remained mostly soft . German production has moved into contraction. Swiss PMI remained soft.
  • The U.K. Manufacturing PMI continued its strong negative divergence with the service sector.
  •  The Japanese Tankan Survey gained modestly to 13 from 12. The Japanese final Manufacturing PMI was flat while Chinese data were  steady. The Australian PMI fell further.
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.  .
  • On Friday, a slew of Service PMIs are set for release along with the September U.S jobs report.  
  • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):

01:30 AU Trade Important Trade measure
08:28 GB Construction PMI Closely-followed production index
11:45 EZ Europe Cntl Bank More ease to be signaled?
12:30  US Initial Claims   +300 expected
14:00  US Factory Orders Future production predictor
07:55 DE SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
07:58  EZ SVC PMI final Key Service Sector index
08:28 GB SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
12:30  CA Trade External sector measure 
12:30  US Payrolls Major Fed Target
12:30  US Trade Impacts GDP calculation
13:45  US Markit SVC PM Key Service Sector index
14:00  US ISM SVC PMI Key Service Sector index
Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
02/10/14 1:30 A AU Trade A$bln n/a -1.359
02/10/14 8:28 A GB Construction PMI 63.5 64
02/10/14 11:45 A EZ Europe Cntl Bank 0.15% 0.15%
02/10/14 12:30 A EZ ECB Webcast n/a n/a
02/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 300 293
02/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.44
02/10/14 14:00 A US Factory Orders -9.00% 10.50%
02/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 97
03/10/14 0:00 A FRIDAY
03/10/14 7:50 B FR SVC PMI final 49.4 49.4
03/10/14 7:55 A DE SVC PMI final 54.6 54.9
03/10/14 7:58 A EZ SVC PMI final 52.8 52.8
03/10/14 8:28 A GB SVC PMI 59 60.5
03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls mm 0.10% -0.40%
03/10/14 9:00 B EZ Retail Sls yy 0.70% 0.80%
03/10/14 12:30 A CA Trade C$bn n/a 2.58
03/10/14 12:30 A US Jobless % 6.10% 6.10%
03/10/14 12:30 A US Payrolls 213 142
03/10/14 12:30 A US Priv Jobs 200 134
03/10/14 12:30 A US Trade USDb -41 -40.5
03/10/14 13:45 A US Markit SVC PMI 58.5 58.5
03/10/14 14:00 A US ISM SVC PMI 58.5 59.6
03/10/14 19:30 US COT Report n/a n/a

calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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