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RISK-OFF: Dealers in a Cautious Posture Leading Up to Important Key Fed Meeting Next Week

RISK-OFF: Dealers in a Cautious Posture Leading Up to Important Key Fed Meeting Next Week
  October 20, 2014 09:30 GMT
Daily Risk On/Off Heat Map

09:15 GMT- Current Market Conditions:
Early in European trading equity markets remain the focus with no major data set for release today. Equities in Far East trade ended broadly higher on the back of the Friday U.S. stock rebound. The key this week could be if we get through the week unscathed. Bourses in Europe are trading weaker. U.S. share futures are higher. .

The U.S. 10-yr yields steady. 10-yr yields in the bund are lower while gilt yields are down as well. Peripheral bond yields are up, Greek yields remain close to 8.00%

The heat map color scheme of interest rates reflects yields.

    • The  markets are already starting to set up for the Fed meeting in just over a week's time. As a result, this is an important period for confidence in the financial markets. Those who bought the mid-week dip are hoping that the worst of the correction is in the rear-view mirror. We will be watching how fixed income markets trade as well.
    • Tuesday sees the release of Chinese GDP and the latest U.S. Existing Homes Sales.
    • On Wednesday, Australia releases is quarterly CPI data and the latest BOE meeting Minutes are due. Later that day U.S. CPI and the latest Bank of Canada policy decision will be released.
    • Early Thursday NZ quarterly CPI data are out. The session also sees a slew of flash PMI data, Weekly U.S. Jobless Claims and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.
    • Friday sees U.K. GDP, and U.S. New Homes Sales, Over the weekend, European clocks are turned back.
    • Be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.
    Weekly Trading Planner Top Items (GMT):
    05:00 JP Lead Indicators-- forecast of economy
    00:30 JP Trade-- key economic sector
    02:00 CN GDP-- critical economic measure
    14:00 US Existing Homes-- top housing measure

    01:30 AU CPI -- RBA target   
    08:30 GB BOE Minutes-- key part of policy
    12:30 CA Retail Sales--  key demand measure  
    12:30 US CPI -- Fed targets inflation
    14:00 CA BOC Rates+MPR -- policy seen steady
    23:45 NZ 3Q CPI RBNZ-- targets inflation
    01:45 CN HSBC flash PM-- universal economic survey
    07:28 DE MFG PMI flash-- universal economic survey
    07:28 DE SVC PMI flash -- universal economic survey
    07:58 EZ flash MFG PMI -- universal economic survey
    07:58 EZ flash SVC PMI -- universal economic survey
    08:30 GB Ret Sls --key demand measures
    12:30 US Initial Claims--freshest jobs data  
    13:45 US Mfg MKt PMI flash-- universal economic survey
    08:30 GB GDP-- broadest measure of economy
    14:00 US New Homes Sales-- housing measure

    Time  Imp Country Title Cons Last
    21/10/14 0:00 A TUESDAY
    21/10/14 0:30 A JP Trade JPYb n/a -924.2
    21/10/14 2:00 A CN GDP yy 2Q14 7.20% 7.50%
    21/10/14 14:00 A US Existing Homes 5.1 5.05
    21/10/14 20:30 C US API Energy n/a n/a
    22/10/14 0:00 A WEDNESDAY
    22/10/14 1:30 A AU CPI q/q 0.40% 0.50%
    22/10/14 1:30 A AU Tmd M y/y n/a n/a
    22/10/14 1:30 A AU CPI y/y 2.30% 3.00%
    22/10/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    22/10/14 8:30 A GB BOE Minutes n/a n/a
    22/10/14 11:00 C US WK Mortgage Stats n/a n/a
    22/10/14 12:30 A CA Retail Sales n/a -0.10%
    22/10/14 12:30 A CA Sales x-autos n/a -0.60%
    22/10/14 12:30 A US CPI m 0.00% -0.20%
    22/10/14 12:30 A US CPI yy 1.60% 1.70%
    22/10/14 12:30 A US core CPI m 0.20% 0.00%
    22/10/14 12:30 A US core CPI yy 1.80% 1.70%
    22/10/14 14:00 A CA BOC Rates+MPR 1.00% 1.00%
    22/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Crude mn n/a 8.9
    22/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Gasoline mn n/a -4
    22/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Distillate mn n/a -1.52
    22/10/14 14:30 B US EIA Cap Util n/a 88.1
    22/10/14 23:45 A NZ 3Q CPI qq n/a 0.30%
    22/10/14 23:45 A NZ 3Q CPI yy n/a 1.60%
    23/10/14 0:00 A THURSDAY
    23/10/14 1:35 B JP flash PMI 52 51.7
    23/10/14 1:45 A CN HSBC flash PMI 50.2 50.2
    23/10/14 7:00 B FR MFG PMI flash 48.5 48.8
    23/10/14 7:00 B FR SVC PMI flash 48.3 48.4
    23/10/14 7:28 A DE MFG PMI flash 49.5 49.9
    23/10/14 7:28 A DE SVC PMI flash 55 55.7
    23/10/14 7:58 A EZ flash MFG PMI 49.9 50.3
    23/10/14 7:58 A EZ flash SVC PMI 52 52.4
    23/10/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls mm -0.20% 0.40%
    23/10/14 8:30 A GB Ret Sls yy 2.90% 3.90%
    23/10/14 10:00 B GB CBI Ind Output Trends n/a 27
    23/10/14 12:30 A US Initial Claims 285 264
    23/10/14 12:30 A US Cont Claims n/a 2.389
    23/10/14 13:45 A US Mfg MKt PMI flash 57.5 57.5
    23/10/14 14:00 B EZ Cons Conf prelim -12.6 -11.4
    23/10/14 14:00 B US Lead Ind 0.70% 0.20%
    23/10/14 14:30 C US Nat Gas bcf n/a 94

    calendarBe sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar  For key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

    See the FOREX FORUM. for actual data, selected charts, etc.) and  comments from experienced traders to events as they happen.

    John M. BlandJohn M. Bland is a founding partner of He was a FX consultant to major corporations. He has also been a institutional forex trader, FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service and an author. John has an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley.
    Copyright 2014, GlobalViewpoint, Inc All rights reserved


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