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Forex News Blog

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Back to The Headlines

Thursday November 13, 2014 - 03:57:04 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 13-Nov-2014 -0356 GMT

GOOD MORNING!

STOCKS
Dow (14,612.20, -0.02%) bounced off from its supports at 17,500 to end the day unchanged. This paper-flat price movement over past few days shows the indecision in the markets and may continue for few more days. The volatility should pick up considerably later next week as we head into data-heavy days heading into Thanksgiving holidays. The longer term trend remains bullish and hence we expect the markets to resolve its consolidation with an upside breakout.

Nikkei (17,230.17, +0.19%) is awaiting the Japanese GDP data, while it hopes the sales tax will also be postponed. There have been number of structural changes in Japanese market which is bullish for long term. For the day, we expect the markets to consolidate in the range of 17,100-17,400 for this week. The GDP data is to be released on Monday.

When the range of equity market indices have strong bullish trend, Dax (9,210.96, -0.25%) surprises with its lackluster performance and technical formations. Dax has formed a smaller time-frame top after a weak bounce off its October lows. Markets will now want to validate if this bounce has any intrinsic value. We are likely to see a retracement to 8900 and 8800 levels. For long term traders or hedgers, this (9200-9400) would be a good place to sell, with a stop of 9700-9800 mark, for the targets in excess of 10% on the downside.

Shanghai (2,480.97, -0.52%) bounced to 2,508 and dropped back. The trend remains bullish, we expect the markets to challenge 2,556-2,560 levels in few days.

Indian CPI came in better than expected at 5.52%. The clamor for the rate cut will grow shriller with this but we believe RBI has reasons for its caution and may hold the rates for some more time. For the day, We expect good buying in Nifty (8,383.30, +0.25%) which has closed just above the top-end of the range of 8290-8380.

COMMODITIES
Gold (1161.28) is trading flat with yesterday’s shooting star candle on daily chart, consolidation below descending triangle pattern break down (on longer-term chart) level of 1190-1200 is seen. Consolidation in the range of 1140-80 can turn into a sharp down fall towards 1110 if Dollar Index gains strength. On short term hourly chart Silver (15.64) is lacking directional force. Technical bias towards our down side target is intact. Recovery rally against the primary down trend would get sold off at around 15.80-90.

Brent (80) is trading closer to our down side target of 79. Our study on its recent price structure suggests we may see a short bottom out here in the region around 80. Nymex WTI (77.02) is lacking directional trend, stuck in the range of 76-78. We need to observe further for any change in our previous bearish view for the target of 74-75.

Copper (3.0235) price structure is not able to acknowledge global macro developments, so no structural change is seen in it. Range bound movement to hold in between 2.95-3.05/.10.

FOREX
As expected, Pound (1.5761) was front-run at 1.5950, and dropped sharply. We are close to the target and the pivotal support at 1.5725. We should see a test of it today. The importance of 1.5725 is in deciding the larger term trend of Pound and we expect this level to hold for next 2-3 days.

Euro (1.2438) got a much needed relief with EURGBP (0.7888) popping up from 0.7800 to 0.7900. But as we write, Euro has given back much of its gains. In short term charts, Euro is trading in a compressed triangle and we expect it to eventually resolve on the downside to reach 1.2250-1.2200 area.

Dollar-Yen (115.58) is holding steady within the expected range of 114.00-116.50. Government's decision on sales tax and GDP are the next triggers. The trend remains bullish and we expect newer highs.

The lower CPI data will likely drag Dollar-Rupee (61.51) down to 61.10, over even 60.80 over next few days.

FOREX
Euro (1.2463) has formed positive divergences on the charts which is supporting the prices. However, 1.2580-1.2600 would be a strong resistance and is unlikely to be crossed on such short-term basing formation. A drop below 1.2400 would indicate reversal to 1.2350 and to newer lows.

Dollar-Yen (115.43) continued its trend and touched new highs. We expect the market to consolidate around 114.00-116.50 over next few days. 

Pound (1.5910) has also bounced from 1.5780s. In the long run, as long as the key pivot of 1.5725 holds, the larger trend for Pound remains bullish and hence would have better payoff if Dollar starts to decline. In short term however, market is likely to front-run the supply zone of 1.600-1.6200 around 1.5950s. 

Aussie (0.8689) has bounced back to the bottom of trading range (0.8850-0.8680) where it has some serious resistances. We don't expect it turn bullish anytime soon. For the very short term, Aussie is likely to be stuck between 0.8750-0.8600. Break below 0.8600 would initiate fresh down trends targeting 0.8450.

Dollar-Rupee (61.55) market will be keenly watching CPI numbers. Further trend should arise out of this number, especially an outlook on interest rates. In short term, resistance is seen at 61.75-80 area, we expect this resistance to hold and can be sold into.

INTEREST RATES
The lower than expected CPI is a big trigger and markets will be factoring in the rate-cut. Though the markets have come down by nearly 35bps since early OCT, we do not expect RBI to oblige markets immediately. 

The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.1582%) is now at its support of 8.15%. The band of 8.00-8.10% offers some strong support. We expect these levels (8.10%-8.15%) to hold. Later we should see a bounce to retest the resistances of 8.4-8.5%. 

US 10Yr (2.37) has bounced to the near 2.4% and we expect this resistance to hold and the markets to trade sideways for next some days as they await more data. 2.3% is the support in the near term.

German 10Y (0.81) is now turning back and it should retest the support of 0.807. The differentials are likely to favor US, with 2YBund-USBond differentials targeted at -0.63 and 10Y spread eventually reducing to -1.50.

DATA TODAY

5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST CN Retail Sales  ...Expected 11.6 ...Previous 11.6  5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST CN Ind Prodn  ...Expected 8.0 ...Previous 8.0  DATA YESTERDAY:- UK Unemp  ...Expected 5.90 % ...Previous 6.00 % ...Actual 6.00 % EU IND Prodn (MoM)  ...Expected 0.6 % ...Previous -1.4 % ...Actual 0.6 % IN IIP  ...Previous 0.40 % ...Actual 2.50 % IN CPI  ...Previous 6.46 ...Actual 5.52

 

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