User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday November 27, 2014 - 04:11:46 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Morning Briefing : 27-Nov-2014 -0412 GMT

GOOD MORNING! STOCKS The key OPEC meeting is to unfold its decision today. In short term, with holidays and lower volumes, it would not have much impact on prices, however the decision will have big impact on fragile global growth. Dow (17,827.75, +0.07%) saw another paper flat day. For past four days, Dow has been confined to less than 100 points. For 16 trading days now, Dow has been confined within 370 points, about 2% move. The range studies, even of weekly charts are at multi-year lows, the levels last seen in 2011. Almost every time when the ranges have fallen so much i.e. so complacent, we have seen the markets fall. And this happening at the all-time highs is especially concerning. However, these are not normal markets and normal times. In Central bank liquidity fueled situation, normal wisdom has been proven wrong countless times. However, caution is a definite must, and investors and traders should let the market prove its up trend or down trend before placing money on it. Nikkei (17,333.52, -0.29%) continues to trade in range unable to break above 17,500 levels. We expect the market break upwards. Sustaining of the higher levels depends on corporate profits and guidance. Shanghai (2,610.53, +0.24%) is going strong and now above the second target of 2,600. Index is at levels last seen in 2011. The next resistance comes in at 2,657. The next serious resistance above 2,660 comes at 2,710 and beyond that at 2,800 levels. To reiterate, Shanghai composite looks very bullish on long term, any correction in medium term would be an opportunity to buy. Dax (9,915.56, +0.55%) showed a strong closing and within striking distance of key 10,000 resistance. We expect the markets to retest this level in a day or two. There is high probability that we will break higher to new highs, however we need to watch the market reaction near 10,000. Nifty (8,4675.75, 0.15%) was volatile but in a limited range. The open interest indicates we may see a closing above 8,500 for the day, however it also depends on how open interest builds up through the day. COMMODITIES Wednesday, because of disappointing US Economic data releases Dollar declined against the major currency pairs. Precious metals are expected to hold its pull back rally. Gold (1194.07) is trading flat as of now. Candle pattern formation on daily charts and subsequent hourly charts suggest extension of indecision amongst the traders. But, as the support level of 1170 is well intact, so we continue to hold our short term bullish view for the target of 1230. Silver (16.34) failed to breach 16.80, as discussed in our previous posts. But, might get into a Consolidation would in the range of 15.80-16.80 within the primary down trend initiated from July-14. In early trading hours Nymex WTI (72.80) has breached support level of 73. But, the oil market is clearly oversupplied now and could produce a counter wave any time soon. Keep an eye at the crucial April 2010 low around 68 levels. Brent (76.58) declined before tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, and currently trading at very crucial support levels of 75-76. We expect Brent will hold these levels, but cautious trading is advised ahead of OPEC meets on supply measures. Copper (2.9600) is trending lower and approaching towards down channel support placed at 2.85. FOREX The booking of the dollar gains ahead of long holidays seasons and the month-end flows will determine what is left of the forex market today and tomorrow. With volatility and volumes at lows, it is likely most of these have been factored in. However, any late moving corporate flow actions can skew, albeit temporarily, the prices to upside or downside. Euro (1.2501) was rejected sharply above 1.2520s, its September-support-turned-resistances zone. The short term charts have positive divergence, and profit in Dollar gains have supported Euro for now. If Euro can hold above 1.2500, it has better chance of moving up, else the downtrend would resume as volumes comes back into the market. German CPI data would be keenly watched. Pound-Dollar's (1.5789) moved higher on good GDP numbers. Market expects the UK economy to recover at faster rates as it has been able to sustain this level for several quarters. However, the economy is still weak for any rate hikes and this will weigh on any GBP gains. Dollar-Yen (117.50) has drifted down after it was rejected two times above 118 levels. For immediate term, we are likely to see a drop to 117, and even 116. Dollar-Rupee (61.84) is expected to stay range bound as market expects the RBI decision. It is now generally accepted that RBI would like to stay on the course and look for a rate cut post-budget. However, surprises are also not ruled out as there have been slew of 'surprise' rate cuts and stimulus measures across the globe. The month-end flows and hedging related moves before the RBI event could move the Rupee to its range boundaries of 62.10-61.65. Aussie-Dollar (0.8564) achieved the expected target of 0.8475 (low 0.8480) and has bounced sharply off the lows. However, Aussie has been a tough read with frequent pull backs into the range and Chinese rate surprise spike helping Aussie. Though we have a lower low, now at 0.8480, we are probably still not in a trend. Most likely this will pullback into the range of 0.86-0.87, its range mids. INTEREST RATES Globally interest rates are down. The US 5Yr (1.56%), 10Yr (2.24%) and 30Yr (2.95%) have been falling since the last few sessions. The US 10-5Yr (0.66%) has fallen further today from 0.68% well maintaining the mid-term fall. We may see a fall to 0.65%-0.60% in the coming sessions. Overall the yields may fall while the curve flattening is in the formation. The German 10 Yr (0.735%) has fallen a bit from 0.74%. Overall the German yields are heading downwards in the coming sessions. The Indian 10Yr GOI (8.14%) has also fallen breaking below 8.15%. We may now expect a fall towards 8% in the near term. DATA TODAY 10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU Biz Climate ...Expected 100.3 ...Previous 100.7 DATA YESTERDAY:- UK GDP ...Expected 0.70 % ...Previous 0.67 % ...Actual 0.67 % US Personal Income ...Expected 0.4 % ...Previous 0.2 % ...Actual 0.2 % US PCE Price Index M/M ...Expected 0.40 % ...Previous 0.03 % ...Actual 0.23 % US Durable Goods Orders ...Expected -0.4 % ...Previous -0.89 % ...Actual 0.4 % US New Home Sales ...Expected 471 K ...Previous 455 K ...Actual 458 K


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
The Amazing Trader
Forex Opportunities
Forex Affiliates
Forex CopyTrading
GVI Forex