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Monday January 5, 2015 - 12:37:34 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Inflation data remains in focus in preparation of upcoming ECB meeting this month

Mon, 05 Jan 2015 5:21 AM EST

- The Greek election on January 25 has increased uncertainties with "Grexit" talk circulating; Euro bounces from 9-year lows hit in Asia
- Oil prices continue slump with both WTI and Brent at fresh 5 year lows
- German State inflation data saw steady MoM readings but lower annual pace
- Euro Zone Jan Sentix confidence registers its first positive reading in 5 months

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -8.8% v -13.5% prior (6th straight monthly decline)
- (ES) Spain Dec Net Unemployment (beats) M/M: -64.4K v -80.0Ke (2nd straight monthly decline)
- (TR) Turkey Dec CPI data softer-than-expected; M/M: -0.4% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 8.2% v 8.9%e; Core Index Y/Y: % v 8.9%e
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Saxony M/M: +0.2% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7% prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec PMI Manufacturing (beats): 54.0 v 52.8e
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Hesse M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.5% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.8% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: -0.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.7% prior
- (DE) Germany Dec CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: -0.1% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.5% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Sentix Investor Confidence (beats): +0.9 v -1.0e (first positive reading in 5 months)
- (UK) Dec Construction PMI (misses):
57.6 v 59.0e (20th month of expansion but lowest since July 2013)
- (CY) Cyprus Dec CPI Y/Y: -1.5% v -0.2% prior

Fixed Income:
(EU) ECB allotted 112.3B in 8-day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05% vs. 156.1B prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.4%, FTSE 100 -0.5% at 6,514, DAX flat at 9,760, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 10,283, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 18,963, SMI +0.5% at 9,032, S&P 500 Futures -0.1% at 2,043]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid continued concerns related to Greece and disinflation (Germany Bavaria and North Rhine Westphalia CPI); Athens Stock Exchange opens slightly lower, then extends losses; Lower oil prices continue to weigh on energy producers; BMW declines amid speculated settlement agreement in China; Ryanair trades at fresh record high as Dec traffic +20% y/y; Event risks for later in the week include euro zone CPI (Jan 7th), German Nov industrial production (Jan 9th), FOMC minutes (Jan 7th), US monthly payrolls (Jan 9th) and China Dec CPI (Jan 8th)

By Sector
- Industrials
[BMW BMW.DE -2% (speculated settlement in China)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Marks & Spencer MKS.UK -1% (broker commentary) ]
- Financials [BNP BNP.FR -1% (broker commentary)]
- Energy [Eni ENI.IT -2% (broker commentary)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Energy -1.8%, Consumer Cyclical -0.8%, Utilities -0.2%, Telecom -0.2%, Technology -0.1%; Industrials +0.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.3%, Financials flat, Basic Materials flat]

- ECB's Praet
(Belgium): Any govt bond purchases must consider existing EU treaties; sees risk of negative inflation rate in the coming months
- France President Hollande commented that GDP growth above 1% was needed to reduce unemployment . France must not stay in weak growth otherwise it would lead to stagnation. Greece must decide future in Euro and Greece was free to decide its government
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen reiterated Norway facing challenging environment. Important to keep inflation expectations stable but had not thoughts on changing the 2.5% inflation target

- USD rose materially on the first full trading day of the year with European inflation data in focus ahead of the Jan 22nd ECB meeting.
The session saw all 6 German States report Dec CPI
- The EUR/USD gaped to hit a 9-year low during Asian trading today as 2015 participation got into full swing on growing conviction that the ECB would be moving towards full blown QE. The weaker Euro currency was still in the middle of its historical range (0.82-1.60) and its current trend bodes well to help push up inflation numbers, improve export and the overall growth prospects in the EMU. The question begs was whether QE was now priced into the FX and bond markets
- The GBP/USD hit a fresh 17-month low in Asia below 1.5185 but managed to crawl above above the 1.53 handle despite a disappointing UK PMI Construction data
- European bond yields moved off record lows that were established throughout the latter part of last week
- Oil prices were again under pressure during the electronic session with WTI front-month future making a fresh five-year lows below $52/barrel.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) German Chancellor Merkel said to be prepared to allow Greece to leave the eurozone if it elected an anti-austerity govt
- (GR) German Econ Min Gabriel: Reiterates the goal is to keep Greece in Euro
- (DE) German IFO President Sinn: Russia is faced with risks of economic collapse
- (GR) German Govt Advisor Bofinger (wiseman): Greek exit "would be linked to very high risks for the stability of the eurozone"
- (UK) PM Cameron: Prefers to move forward the planned referendum on UK's membership in EU from 2017 if possible

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RO) Romania Dec International Reserves: No est v $34.6B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell up to 4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Consumer Confidence Index: No est v -22.3 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: No est v 0.5 prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2019 and 2024 bonds
- To Sell 2019 Bonds
- To sell 2024 I/L Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.3%e v 0.6% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 0.2%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (SG) Singapore Dec Purchasing Manager Index: 51.0e v 51.8 prior; Electronic Sector index: 50.1e v 50.6 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 6.2-7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:45 (US) Dec ISM New York: No est v 63.4 prior
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Dec Foreign Reserves (DKK): No est v 445.5B prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Trade Balance Monthly: $0.1Me v -$2.4B prior; Exports: $18.7Be v $15.7B prior; Total Imports: $18.2Be v $18.0B prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Dec CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.5% prior
- 17:00 (US) Dec Wards Total Vehicle Sales: 16.90Me v 17.08M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 13.70Me v 13.78M prior
- 18:50 (JP) Japan Dec Monetary Base Y/Y: No est v 36.7% prior
- 19:30 (TW) Taiwan Dec CPI Y/Y: No est v 0.9% prior; WPI Y/Y: No est v -2.7% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Nov Trade Balance: No est v -A$1.3B prior

- 20:45 (CN) China HSBC Services PMI: No est v 53.0 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 51.1 prior
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HKD31.5B in 3-month Bills
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year JGB Bonds


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