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Tuesday January 6, 2015 - 12:52:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Continued decline in oil prices stroke disinflation concerns; PMI Services data mixed in session

Tue, 06 Jan 2015 5:10 AM EST

- China Dec HSBC Services PMI improves to hit a 3-month high (53.4 v 53.0 prior)
- Mainly Constructive data in session; Various European services sector PMI pick up (Spain, France. Germany beat while Italy, Euro Zone and UK miss); French consumer confidence improved m/m
- Continued decline in oil prices stroke disinflation concerns as prices hit fresh 5 1/2 year lows; WTI tested testing below $49/barrel with Brent hovering below $52/barrel
- Major 10-year bond yields lower in session (US, UK and Germany among them) on dis-inflation and risk aversion flows

**Economic data***
- (IN) India Dec Services PMI: 51.1 v 52.6 prior; Composite PMI: 52.9 v 53.6 prior
- (IE) Ireland Dec Services PMI: 62.6 v 61.6 prior; Composite PMI: 61.0 v 59.9 prior
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Confidence (beats): 90 v 88e
- (NO) Norway Dec Manufacturing PMI (missed): 49.8 v 50.5e
- (ES) Spain Dec Services PMI (beats): 54.3 v 53.4e (14th month of expansion); Composite PMI: 54.3 v 53.8 prior
- (IT) Italy Dec Services PMI missed: 49.4 v 51.7e (1st contraction in three months); Composite PMI: 49.4 v 51.2 prior
- (FR) France Dec Final Services PMI (beats): 50.6 v 48.9e (1st expansion in 4 months and highest since March); Composite PMI: ## v 49.1e
- (DE) Germany Dec Final Services PMI (beats): 52.1 v 51.4e (confirms 19th consecutive month of expansion); Composite PMI: 52.0 v 51.4e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Final Services PMI (miss): 51.6 v 51.9e (confirms 17th straight month of growth); Composite PMI: 51.4 v 51.7e
- (UK) Dec Services PMI (miss): 55.8 v 58.5e (24th month of expansion but lowest since May 2013); Composite PMI: 56.2 v 57.4e

Fixed Income:
- None seen

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3%
, FTSE 100 -1.2% at 6,339, DAX -0.2% at 9,451, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,092, IBEX-35 -0.7% at 9,921, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 18,238, SMI -0.1% at 8,934, S&P 500 Futures -0.2% at 2,012]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open slightly higher following sharp losses on Monday, markets later decline amid gains in core bonds; Energy producers continue to decline; Banks continue to trade with weaker tone amid Greece concerns; Euro zone services PMI generally above ests, but Italy contracts; UK services PMI below ests; Greek equities are closed for holiday

By Sector
- Healthcare
[Eckert Ziegler EUZ.DE -7% (profit warning); Cytos CYTN.CH +65% (licensing agreement)]
- Consumer Discretionary [TomTom TOM2.NL +7% (agreement with Volkswagen)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Technology -1.8% (SAP -1.9%), Telecom -0.9%, Basic Materials -0.8% Utilities -0.7%, Energy -0.6% Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Industrials -0.2%, Financials -0.1%; Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.2%]

- ECB might study three bond-buying options and could choose one at the Jan 22nd policy meeting
. Options include: 1) To buy govt bonds in market according to national capital key; 2) To purchase only AAA-rated bonds to force sellers to reinvest into paper with more risk and 3) National Central Banks to purchase their own bonds at their own risk
- Syriza party spokesperson Skourletis: German politicians comments about Greece leaving euro area if it abandons its austerity pledge were not based in reality
- Saudi Crown Prince: To deal with oil market 'wisely'

- GBP hits fresh 17-month lows below 1.52 after UK PMI Services misses expectations
- JPY's performance remained dependent on the interpretation of risk appetite (currently avoiding risk appetite). The USD/JPY stayed below the 119 handle for the bulk of the session
- Narrower than expected Australia trade deficit aided the AUD currency. AUD/USD was firmer by over 0.5% to test0.8135 area
- Oil-related currencies (e.g CAD, NOK and RUB) remained soft with oil prices continue to hit fresh 5 year lows.
- Greek political problems seemed fuel flight to quality assets with UK and German 10-year yields hitting fresh record lows in the session. Dealers also noted that recent Euro Area inflation outlook cemented QE bets. Lastly the continued decline in oil prices stoke disinflation concerns

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) ECB said to discuss Greece at upcoming non-policy meeting on Wednesday, Jan 7th
- (SA) Saudi Aramco narrows discount to Asia customers to $1.40/bbl for Feb crude
- (CN) China said to accelerate $1T in 2015 projects to boost growth

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 2.75B in 2.75% 2024 Gilts
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 2.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills

- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2016, 2021 and 2024 bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 1.5B in 3-month Bills
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Services PMI: No est v 48.5 prior; Composite PMI: No est v 48.1 prior
- 07:30 (US) Jan RBC Consumer Outlook: No est v 53.3 prior
- 07:45 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.7%e v -0.5% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: -4.7%e v -4.3% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:45 (US) Dec Final Markit Services PMI: 53.7e v 59.3 prelim; Composite PMI: No est v 53.8 prelim
- 10:00 (US) Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 58.0e v 59.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov Factory Orders: -0.5%e v -0.7% prior

- 10:00 (US) Nov Durable Goods revisions
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories Data
- 19:01 (UK) Dec BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: -1.8%e v -1.9% prior
- 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB9.0B in 2044 Bonds
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HKD9.0B in 6-month Bills


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