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Wednesday January 7, 2015 - 11:47:20 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Euro Zone Flash CPI turns negative for first time in five years; Italian unemployment hits a fresh record high

Wed, 07 Jan 2015 5:21 AM EST

**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany Nov Retail Sales (beats) M/M: 1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.6%e
- (SE) Sweden PMI Services: 55.4 v 56.9 prior
- (CH) Swiss Dec Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 495.1B v 472.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Nov National Trade Balance (CZK): 13.1B v 13.7Be
- (DE) Germany Dec Unemployment Change (better): -27K v -5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.5% v 6.6%e
- (IT) Italy Nov Preliminary Unemployment Rate (missed): 13.4% v 13.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Nov Unemployment Rate (inline): 11.5% v 11.5%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec CPI data mixed; CPI Estimate (worse) Y/Y: -0.2% v -0.1%e; CPI Core (higher)Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.7%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary CPI (including tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e

Fixed Income:
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) opened its books to sell new EUR-denominated benchmark bond; guidance seen high 30's bps over mid-swaps
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency opened books to sell EUR-denominated Jun 2025 (10-year bond) via syndicate; guidance seen low-mid teens over mid-swaps
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs. 1.25B indicated in 26-week Bills; Avg Yield: 2.30% v 2.15% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.58x v 1.81x

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.6%
, FTSE 100 +0.6% at 6,404, DAX +0.6% at 9,526, CAC-40 +0.6% at 4,109, IBEX-35 +0.6% at 9,930, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 18,176, SMI +0.4% at 8,906, S&P 500 Futures +0.4% at 2,002]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open higher following losses on Tuesday and ahead of euro zone CPI and FOMC minutes; Markets hold gains amid mixed euro zone CPI data release and Italian unemployment data; Greek equities trade lower by over 1% amid sharp rise in bond yields; Sainsbury Q3 sales above ests; Online fashion retailer warns on outlook; UK-listed energy producers trade heavy as Brent crude futures test $50/bbl; European banks trade mixed

By Sector
- Consumer Staples
[Sainsbury SBRY.UK +0.5% (Q3 sales above ests, possible short covering)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Aggreko AGK.UK +4% (contract extension); BOO.UK -40% (profit warning)]
- Financials [Julius Baer BAER.CH -3% (broker commentary)]
- Industrials [Manz Automation M5Z.DE +10% (awarded 40M in orders) ]
- Technology [Renishaw RSW.UK +6% (raised outlook)]
- Stoxx50 sectors [Industrials +0.9% (Airbus +2%), Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Technology +0.1%, Energy flat; Consumer Cyclical -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%, Financials -0.1%, Basic Materials -0.1%]

- German CDU Deputy party Chairman Fuchs:
Greece was no longer systemically relevant for stability and Germany did not want QE without conditions. ECB must not lower the pressure to enact reforms on govts by embarking on QE
- Germany Chancellor Merkel Adviser Feld said to warn about ECB bond buying before the Greece elections on Jan 25th
- Germany said to want Greece to stay in EMU even if Syriza wins elections
- Czech Central Bank Vice Gov Tomsik: Euro zone has long-term falling producer prices that are importing strong deflationary pressures to Czech Republic
- Japan PM Abe: Might be able to declare end to deflation if domestic companies raises wages
- Japan govt likely to say economy to contract this FY
- UAE Oil Min Suhail Al-Mazrouei: Market oversupply may last months or years, depends on non-OPEC output growth

- EUR/USD hit fresh 9-year lows (Feb 2006) during Asia today before finding some stability.
As widely expected Euro Zone Dec CPI Flash estimate turned negative but the Euro was unable to hit fresh lows during the European morning.
- Dealers noted that falling global bond yields have decreased yield differentials between Japan and the rest of the world and should keep the JPY currency from weakening at this time. USD/JPY hovered around the 119 level in trading this morning.
- Oil-related currencies (e.g CAD, NOK and RUB) remained soft with oil prices continuing to hit fresh 5 year lows.
- Various European govt bond yields hit fresh record lows in session (including Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and Finland. German 10-year Bund yield tested 0.433%.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (CN) China Q4 GDP growth may slow to 7.2%, weakest since Q1 2009

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) ECB said to discuss Greece at upcoming non-policy meeting
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -3.0%e v 0.9% prior
- 05:30 (UK) DMO to sell 950M in 0.125% I/L 2044 Gilts
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 5.0B in 0% Dec 2016 Schatz

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Live Registry (Monthly Change): No est v -4.1K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 10.7% prior; Live Registry Level: No est v 367.1K prior
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Nov PPI Manufacturing M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Trade Balance: $0.7Be v $0.5B prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.9B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.4B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia OFZ Bond auction
- 07:00 (UK) PM Cameron weekly question time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 2nd: No est v % prior (**Note: to rec 2-weeks worth of data)
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Nov Nominal Wage M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.9% prior
- 08:00 (RO) Romania Central Bank Gov Isarescu post rate decision press conference
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Dec Official Reserves: No est v $100.4B prior
- 08:15 (US) Dec ADP Employment Change: +225Ke v +208K prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Nov Trade Balance: -$42.0Be v -$43.4B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Nov Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$0.2Be v C$0.1B prior

- 10:00 (CA) Canada Dec Ivey Purchasing Manager Index: 53.0e v 56.9 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 49.2 prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (US) DOE Crude: M v +0.5Me; Gasoline: M v +3Me; Distillate: M v +2.5Me; Utilization: % v %
- 14:00 (US) Fed Releases Minutes from Its Dec. 16-17 FOMC Meeting
- 18:30 (US) Fed's Evans on monetary policy in Chicago
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bills
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 10-Year CPI Linked Bond
- Sri Lanka Presidential Elections


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