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Tuesday January 13, 2015 - 12:06:12 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: UK joint CPI at lowest level since comparable record began

Tue, 13 Jan 2015 5:27 AM EST

- Risk appetite trying to gain traction as oil prices still search for a bottom
- Japan Nov Trade Balance registers its smallest deficit in 5 months (-0.6B vs. -0.7Be)
- China overall 2014 trade growth comes in below the official target (+3.4% vs. +7.5% target); sees pressures continuing in Q1
- Sweden Dec CPI comes in hotter than expected but unlikely to sway Riksbank from again lowering its rate path outlook
- UK Dec Joint CPI reading was lowest since comparable records began in 1989; Core (ex-energy) rose vs. Nov reading

**Economic data***
- (DE) Germany Dec Wholesale Price Index M/M: -1.0% v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.1% prior

- (SE) Sweden Dec PES Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.3%e
- (TR) Turkey Nov Current Account Balance: -$5.6B v -$5.4Be
- (SE) Sweden Dec CPI (beats); M/M: +0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.5%e; CPI Level: 314.05 v 313.35e
- (CZ) Czech Nov Current Account Monthly (CZK) -6.7B v +3.0Be
- (IT) Italy Nov Industrial Production (beats) M/M: 0.3% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.8 v -3.0% prior; Industrial Production WDA Y/Y: -1.8% v -2.7%e
- (UK) Dec CPI (missed) M/M: 0.0% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7%e (lowest since 2000); CPI Core Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e
- (UK) Dec RPI M/M: 0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e; RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e; Retail Price Index: 257.5 v 257.4e
- (UK) Dec PPI Input M/M: -2.4% v -2.6%e ; Y/Y: -10.7% v -11.5%e
- (UK) Dec PPI Output M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.4%e (biggest annual drop since 2009)
- (UK) Dec PPI Output Core M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 1.2%e
- (UK) Nov ONS House Price Y/Y: 10.0% v 9.7%e
- (GR) Greece Dec CPI Y/Y: -2.6% v -1.6%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -2.5% v -1.2% prior

Fixed income:
- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal)
to sell EUR-denominated 12-year bond; guidance seen low-mid 60s bps to mid-swap
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) opened its books to sell 10-year and 30-year OT bonds via syndicate
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.85B in new April 0% 2018 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield: -0.034% v +0.015% prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) auction solid; sold total 7.0B vs. 5.5-7.0B indicated range in 2018, 2021 and 2030 BTPs
- Sold 3.0B vs. 2.5-3.0B indicated range in 0.75% Jan 2018 BTP; Avg Yield: 0.61% v 0.77% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 1.53x prior
- Sold 2.5B vs. 2.0-2.5B indicated range in 2.15% Dec 2021 BTP; Avg Yield: 1.29% v 1.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 1.51x prior
- Sold 1.5B vs. 1.0-1.5B indicated range in 3.50% Mar 2030 BTP; Avg Yield: 2.46% v 2.97% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.53x v 1.55x prior
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total 1.1B in 2019 and 2024 RAGB bonds
- Sold 660M in 0.25% 2019 RAGB; Avg Yield 0.025% v 0.195% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.04x v 2.51x prior
- Sold 440M in 1.65% 2024 RAGB; Avg Yield: 0.558% (record low) v 0.825% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.48x v 1.58x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 114.0B in 7-day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.05%

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.7%
, FTSE 100 +0.5% at 6,536, DAX +0.8% at 9,859, CAC-40 +0.7% at 4,259, IBEX-35 +0.8% at 9,872, FTSE MIB +0.9% at 18,515, SMI +0.6% at 9,209, Athens Stock Exchange +1.5%, S&P 500 Futures +0.4% at 2,030]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following Monday's gains amid declines in the US and lower oil prices; Markets later pare losses amid in line UK core CPI data; Cautious outlook weighs on Philips; German retailer Metro Q1 sales above ests; Sugar maker Suedzucker Q3 profits above ests; Lower oil prices continue to weigh on energy firms

By Sector
- Financials
[Commerzbank CBK.DE +2.5% (broker commentary)]
- Consumer Discretionary [Asos ASC.UK +6% (reaffirmed outlook), Greggs GRG.UK +6% (raised outlook), Metro MEO.DE +3.5% (Q1 sales above ests), Lindt LISP.CH +2% (FY sales above ests); Debenhams DEB.UK -8% (cautious margin forecast)]
- Consumer Staples [Morrison MRW.UK +5% (sales above ests, management change)]
- Industrials [Geberit GEBN.CH -2% (Q4 sales below ests), Airbus AIR.FR -0.5% (broker commentary), Siemens SIE.DE -0.5% (broker commentary)]
- Technology [Temenos TEMN.CH -18% (cut sales forecast), Philips PHIA.NL -2.5% (cautious outlook)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical +0.6%, Financials +0.4%, Telecom +0.3%, Consumer Non-Cyclical +0.1%, Industrials flat, Basic Materials flat; Energy -1.3%, Utilities -1.2%, Technology -0.3%]

- ECB's Coeure (France):
Election in Greece doesn't influence ECB's monetary policy path. Board ready to make decision on QE at next meeting on Jan 22nd, but did not mean we necessarily would do so. Could not agree to a haircut of Greek bonds that ECB holds, or extension of their duration
- Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: If Greece sticks to their commitments we are prepared to do more to lighten Greece's debt burden. Speculation about a Greece exit from the Eurozone is completely off limits
- SNB Vice President Danthine: ECB QE likely to make defense of EURCHF floor more difficult. Franc cap must remain pillar of monetary policy
- Italy President Napolitano to step down on Wed January 14th
- Spain autonomous region Catalonia to request 6.3B from central govt's regional rescue fund (FLA) in 2015. Catalan Econ Min requested amount to cover debt maturities and 2015 deficit
- UAE Energy Min: OPEC strategy will not change; oil price could take up to three years to stabilize. Sudden rebound of oil price unlikely. Oversupply from shale needs to be corrected

- UK inflation data was the highlight of the session.
The CPI YoY was the lowest since 2000 while the joint inflation reading was the lowest since comparable records began in 1989. The GBP/USD sold off as headline CPI missed expectations but failed to hit a fresh 17-month low below the 1.505 level. For the time being the higher Core YoY reading preventing an outright avalanche of GBP selling for now.
- The EUR/USD continued to hover around the 1.18 handle ahead of Wednesday's EU Top Court (ECJ) non-binding advice on ECB's OMT Mechanism
- Oil continued its decent as WTI electronic crude futures traded below $45/barrel; lowest since April 2009 and Brent traded at $46.11 (lower by 2.8%)

**Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Noyer (France): Believe QE should be capped so private investors are not crowded out of markets; Greece elections would not present any obstacle to making a QE decision in January;
- (EU) ECB's Makuch (Slovakia): Premature to comment on any details of potential QE
- ECB's Nowotny: Europe remains the weak spot of the global economy, ECB should address low inflation sooner, not later
- (GR) Greece Syriza Party (opposition) leader Tsipras: German savers have nothing to fear from Syriza; The party wants to stabilize Greece
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC voter): Reiterates June is a reasonable guess for first rate hike, will most likely be a close call
- (US) Fed's Lockhart (moderate, FOMC voter in 2015): any weakening of core inflation would be concerning

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-month Bills
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 1.0B in 0.5% 2030 Inflation-linked Bunds
- 05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell up to 2.0B in 3-month and 12-month Bills

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Dec Trade Balance: No est v -$0.8B prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal CPI M/M: No est v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal CPI Harmonized M/M: No est v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Zero 2015 Bonds
- 07:00 (EU) EU Trade Commissioner Malmstroem
- 07:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction
- 07:30 (US) Dec NFIB Small Business Optimism: 98.5e v 98.1 prior
- 07:45 (US) Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Nov Current Account Balance: No est v -0.4B prior; Trade Balance: No est v 0.0B prior; Exports: No est v 14.7B prior; Imports: No est v 14.7B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales
- 09:00 (EU) EU's Tusk in EU Parliament in Strasbourg
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Jan IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 48.3e v 48.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Nov JOLTS Job Openings: 4.83Me v 4.834M prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (UK) DMO announces size of upcoming 2% 2020 Gilt auction
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 12:00 (AT) ECB's Nowotny (Austria) with IFO President Sinn in Viennia
- 13:00 (US) Dec Monthly Budget Statement: $3.0Be v $38.0B prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $21B in 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (CA_ Bank of Canada (BOC) Dep Gov Lane
- 14:30 ((ES) ECB's Linde (Spain)
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Card Spending Retail M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Total Card Spending M/M: No est v -0.3% prior
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Economic Outlook in New York
- 18:00 (KR) South Korea Dec Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.4% prior
- 19:00 (AU) Australia to sell Nominal Bonds
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HKD2.0B in 2.22% 10-Year Bonds
- 22:45 (JP) Japan to sell 30-Year JGB Bonds


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