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Wednesday January 14, 2015 - 17:14:31 GMT
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| | Email US Mid-Session Update: JPMorgan and Dec Retail Sales Disappoint

Wed, 14 Jan 2015 12:06 PM EST

***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Nov Retail Sales M/M: 1.5% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.0%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov Retail Sales M/M: 0.9% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: +1.0% v -0.4%e
- (BR) Brazil Nov Broad Retail Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -3.5%e
- (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) left Base Rate unchanged at 2.00% (as expected)
- (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Jan 9th: 49.1% v 11.1% prior
- (PL) Poland Dec M3 Money Supply M/M: 2.7% v 2.5%e; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.2%e
- (US) Dec Advance Retail Sales M/M: -0.9% v -0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: -1.0% v 0.0%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas: -0.3% v +0.5%e; Retail Sales Control Group: -0.4% v +0.4%e
- (US) Dec Import Price Index M/M: -2.5% v -2.7%e; Y/Y: -5.5% v -5.2%e
- (CA) Canada Dec Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.9% v 5.2% prior; House Price Index: 167.17 v 167.51 prior
- (MX) Mexico Oct Gross Fixed Investment: 6.8% v 5.1%e
- (US) Nov Business Inventories: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (US) DOE Crude: +5.39M v +0.5Me; Gasoline: +3.17M v +2.5Me; Distillate: +2.93M v +1.0Me

The December retail sales numbers and JPMorgan's poor showing have forced markets lower during the US session. The 10-year yield has moved sharply lower, down approximately 9 basis points to 1.813%. The DJIA is off 1.37%, the S&P500 is down 0.91% and the Nasdaq is off 0.73%.

US retail sales dropped by the biggest amount in nearly a year in December, although analysts have rushed in to explain away the bearish numbers. The core reading, which excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, fell 0.4% after a 0.6% rise in November. Various analysts said the slump in energy prices, seasonal volatility, surprising gains in employment and other sources of volatility make it hard to draw conclusions from the reading.

The ECB got a green light from the EU Court of Justice (ECJ) to begin its highly anticipated QE program. The court ruled that the OMT program, which was planned back in 2012 to buy the bonds of bailout nations under certain circumstance, was compatible with EU law. Euro hits 9-year lows and European stocks rally from steep initial losses as no obstacle seen for ECB to enact QE. EUR/USD has traded a wide range, as low as 1.1725 after the court ruling and as high as 1.1850 after the US retail sales.

The plunge in copper continues today, to six-year lows, is starting to have a big impact on miners. UK-traded shares of Glencore are down nearly 10% on the session at all-time lows. Goldman Sachs warned that risks to copper prices are heavily skewed to downside, with continued demand weakness in China to continue. WTI crude has been unable to dip back below $45 today, even after the huge gain in DOE crude inventories data.

JPMorgan is the first big bank to report earnings from the last quarter of 2014. Earnings and revenues were a bit shy of consensus expectations and both declined y/y, driven lower by a 14% y/y decline in revenue from fixed-income trading. There was kvetching about litigation expenses, however total legal costs of $2.9 billion for the year were far less than the $11.1 billion recorded in 2013. Wells Fargo's earnings and revenue rose slightly on the year, meeting expectations. Both WFC and JPM are off about 1.5%.

***Looking Ahead***
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 30-Year Bond Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 16:45 (NZ) New Zealand Dec Food Prices M/M: No est v -0.5% prior
- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Employment Change: +5.0Ke v +42.7K prior; Unemployment Rate: 6.3%e v 6.3% prior
- 20:00 (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK) Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged 2.00%
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 3-Month Bill


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