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Thursday February 5, 2015 - 11:46:55 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: EU Commission optimistic on region's growth outlook; Greece says ECB move on collateral to have limited impact

Thu, 05 Feb 2015 5:20 AM EST

- ECB sends clear warning shot to the new Greek govt (Greek debt can no longer be used as collateral (since it's not investment grade), effective February 11th; weighs on European markets with Greek bond yields higher
- EU Commission Winter Economic Forecasts saw the best growth prospects for the region since 2007 citing lower oil prices, a weakening EUR currency and ECB QE
- Largely anticipated China PBoC RRR cut fails to inspire Shanghai Composite

**Economic data***
- (CH) Swiss Jan SECO Consumer Confidence (beat): -6 v -13
- (DE) Germany Dec Factory Orders (beat) M/M: 4.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Jan Halifax House Prices (beat) M/M: 2.0% v 0.0%e; 3M/Y: 8.5% v 7.7%e
- (UR) Ukraine Central Bank raises Discount Rate to 19.50% from 14.00%; effective Feb 6th
- (DE) Germany Jan Construction PMI: 49.5 v 50.5 prior
- (SE) Sweden Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.7% v +1.0%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -3.5%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan SACCI Business Confidence: 89.3 v 88.3 prior

Fixed Income:
- (SE) Sweden to sell EUR-denominated 5-year bond; guidance seen -21bps to mid-swaps
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 2.881B vs. 2.5-3.5B indicated range in 2029 and 2044 bonds
- Sold 1.252B in 6% Jan 2029 bonds; Avg Yield: 1.907% (record low )v 5.224% prior, bid-to-cover 1.50x v 4.1x prior; Maximum Yield 1.935% v 5.258% prior
- Sold 1.629B in 5.15% 2044 bono; Avg Yield 2.495% (record low) v 3.594% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.24x v 1.99x prior; Maximum Yield: 2.510% v 3.604% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 950M vs. 0.5-1.0B indicated range in Nov Inflation-Linked 2019 Bond (Linker); Yield: 0.55% (record low); Bid-to-cover: 2.58x v 2.06x prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 8.99B vs. 8.0-9.0B indicated range in 2025 and 2030 bonds
- Sold 4.625B in 0.5% 2025 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.61% v 0.62% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.87x v 2.14x prior
- Sold 2.419B in 6.0% Oct 2025 OATs; avg yield 0.62% v 1.11%; Bid-to-cover: 2.14x v 2.44x
- Sold 1.955B in 2.50% May 2030 Oat; Avg Yield 0.94% v 1.30% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.75x v 1.75x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B in I/L 2019 Bonds; Yield: -0.6891% v -0.0470% prior; Bid-to-cover: 5.93x v 3.46x prior

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.5%
, FTSE 100 -0.2% at 6,845, DAX flat at 10,910, CAC-40 -0.3% at 4,683, IBEX-35 -0.8% at 10,489, FTSE MIB -0.7% at 20,801, SMI -0.9% at 8,529, Athens Stock Exchange -6%, S&P 500 Futures +0.5% at 2,040]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower following ECB's collateral move related to Greek banks and amid weak earnings; Greek banks open sharply lower; Lower oil prices weigh on energy companies; ABB, Swatch, AstraZeneca, MunichRe, Volvo, BNP decline after Q4 earnings reports; Sanofi rises on better Q4 results; Shanghai Composite reverses initial gains following China's RRR cut

By Sector
- Financials
[BNP BNP.FR -2% (Q4 results below ests), MunichRe MUV2.DE -1% (Q4 profits below ests)
- Consumer Discretionary [Swatch UHR.CH -7% (weaker Q4 results) ]
- Technology [Dassault Systems DSY.FR +1.5% (Q4 Rev +23% y/y)]
- Telecom [Vodafone VOD.UK -0.5% (Q3 sales in line, reaffirmed outlook); BT BT.UK +2.5% (confirmed agreement related to EE)]
- Industrials [Volvo VOLVB.SE -2% (Q4 profits below ests); Nokian Renkatt NRE1V.FI +6% (Q4 profits above ests), Daimler DAI.DE +1% (Q4 results above ests)]
- Healthcare [Genmab GEN.DK -5% (share placement), AstraZeneca AZN.UK -2% (Q4 profits below ests); Sanofi SAN.FR +2% (Q4 profits above ests)
- Utilities [Enel ENEL.IT -2.5% (stake sale speculation)]
- Energy [SBM Offshore SBMO.NL -4% (cautious revenue outlook)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Utilities -2%, Energy -1.5%, Technology -0.6%, Financials -0.5%, Telecom -0.4%, Basic Materials -0.1%; Consumer Cyclical +0.7%, Industrials flat, Consumer Non-Cyclical flat]

- ECB's Weidmann (Germany)
: ECB should apply strict standards on ELA and govt should decide how to handle risks to banks; later he reiterated his skepticism related to QE
- Greece govt official: ECB move to have limited impact; country's banking sector fully secure through ELA (adds that its access to the facility increased by 10B. Reiterated view that Greece fully committed to finding a mutually beneficial solution
- EU Commission Winter Economic Forecasts saw the best growth prospects since 2007 citing lower oil prices, a weakening EUR currency and ECB QE
- Swiss Govt stated that its economic forecasts were no longer valid after SNB removal of EUR/CHF floor. Hard to gauge extent of economic slowdown due to the CHF currency (Franc) appreciation; depended on the duration of the CHF currency strength
- Ukraine Central Bank announced that it would o drop daily indicative UAH currency rate from Feb 5th and allow market set exchange rate

- Market participates weighed the impact of the ECB's decision to end the waiver on Greek government debt from February 11th
- The Greek 10-year yield initially popped higher by over 100bps to retest above the 10% level in the session but found some comfort after a Greek official noted that the country's banking sector was fully secure through ELA and reiterated its view that Greece fully committed to finding a mutually beneficial solution
- The EUR/USD consolidated its losses from yesterday's NY afternoon and hovered around the 1.1370 area
- The GBP/USD was slightly higher by 0.3% at 1.5235 ahead of the BOE rate decision. Analysts were unanimous that the central bank would again keep its policy steady.

**Political/In the Papers:
- ECB withdrew its special waiver on minimum credit rating requirements for Greece govt debt as collateral, citing uncertainty about a successful conclusion of Greek program review
- (GR) Greek Fin Min Varoufakis: Greece needs time until the end of May to put concrete proposals on the table
- (US) Fed's Mester (non voter, hawk):If growth decelerated or inflation expectations declined would need to reevaluate 1H rate hike -

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IL) Israel Jan Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $86.1B prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (RO) Romania to sell RON in 4.75% 2019 Bonds
- 05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Dec Industrial Production M/M: No est v 4.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 36.6% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Industrial Sales, Employment Report
-:06:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -0.8% --prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -2.0% prior
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Dec Economic Activity (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.6%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.3% prior
- 06:30 (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium) speaks in Frankfurt
- 06:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble with Greece Fin Min Varoufakis press conference
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) unchanged at 0.50% and 375B respectively
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank (CNB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Repurchase Rate and EUR/CZK Floor unchanged at 0.05% and 'around 27.00' respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Jan 30th: No est v $378.1B prior
- 07:00 (CL) Chile Dec Nominal Wage M/M: No est v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.0% prior
- 07:30 (US) Jan Challenger Job Cuts: No est v +32.6K prior; Y/Y: No est v 6.6% prior
- 07:30 (US) Feb RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 53.3 prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.1%e v 2.3% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +1.2%e v -1.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Dec Trade Balance: -$38.0Be v -$39.0B prior
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 290Ke v 265K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.40Me v 2.385M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Int'l Merchandise Trade Balance: -C$1.1Be v -C$0.6B prior

- 08:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Vehicle Production: No est v 203.8K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 370.0K prior; Vehicle Exports: 23.7K prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (NL) ECB's Knot (Netherlands) in Dutch Parliament on QE
- 10:00 (HU) Hungary Jan YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -825.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 19:00 (CO) Colombia Jan CPI M/M: 0.6%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.8%e v 3.7% prior
- 19:30 (AU) RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
- 22:35 (JP) Japan to sell 6-Month Bills


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