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Friday February 6, 2015 - 12:10:36 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: EU seeks lasting solution on Greece

Fri, 06 Feb 2015 5:15 AM EST

- RBA Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy lowered its medium-term GDP and CPI forecasts (a little less than most analysts expected)
- Europe Finance Ministers to hold extraordinary meeting next week on Greece in search of a lasting solution
- Various European trade data (France and UK) come in wore than expected
- Market participants brace for Jan US payroll data

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Dec Preliminary Leading Index CI: 105.2 v 105.4e; Coincident Index: 110.7 v 110.5e
- (DE) Germany Dec Industrial Production (miss); M/M: 0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.3%e
- (FR) France Dec YTD: -85.6B v -90.8B prior
- (FR) France Dec Trade Balance (miss): -3.5B v -3.3Be
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: 2.1% v -0.5% prior; Industrial Output SA Y/Y: -0.9% v 0.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 498.4B v 495.1B prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: -1.7% v +3.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.6% v 6.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Dec National Trade Balance (CZK): -3.0B v -6.3Be
- (CZ) Czech Dec Industrial Output Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.8%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -6.6% v +2.0% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Industrial Production M/M: +0.3 v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: 3.5B v 4.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Dec Manufacturing Production (beat) M/M: +1.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.0% prior
- (UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance (miss): -10.2B v -9.1Be; Total Trade Balance: -2.9B v -1.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -3.8B v -3.0Be
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.7% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 4.2%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 2020, 2026, 2033 and 2044 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2046 and 2050 bonds

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.6%
, FTSE 100 -0.3% at 6,843, DAX -0.9% at 10,810, CAC-40 -0.5% at 4,681, IBEX-35 flat at 10,528, FTSE MIB -0.3% at 20,763, SMI -0.1% at 8,535, Athens Stock Exchange -0.4%, S&P 500 Futures flat at 2,055]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open mixed ahead of US payrolls report; Greek equities trade slightly lower; Tate & Lyle weighed down by profit warning; Statoil beats ests and cuts CAPEX; Alcatel-Lucent Q4 sales in line

By Sector
- Telecom
[Alcatel-Lucent ALU.FR +1% (Q4 profits below ests)]
- Technology [RocketInternet RKET.DE +6% (acquisition)]
- Energy [Statoil STL.NO +1% (Q4 profits above ests)]
- Consumer Staples [Tate & Lyle TATE.UK -14% (profit warning)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Non-Cyclical -1%, Industrials -0.7%, Consumer Cyclical -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.4%, Energy -0.4%, Financials -0.3% Technology -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%; Telecom flat]

- Eurogroup to hold an extraordinary meeting on Wed, Feb 11th to discuss Greece

- Italy Fin Min Padoan: Europe seeking a lasting solution for Greece; confident that one would be found
- Finland PM Stubbs stated that he sought 3.0B in budget cuts and targeted to balance the budget by 2019. He saw no more room to raise taxes
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov said to propose gradual increase in pension age to 63; saw 2015 capital outflows no higher than $100B
- Philippines Econ Planning Sec Balisacan: Lower interest rates could cause asset bubble
- Thailand Central Bank Gov Parasarn reiterated view that it has not ruled out further interest rate cuts
- India govt said to consider a law change for monetary policy of the central bank and adopt a formal inflation target. To plan 8-member MPC of which 7 would be voting member (one-govt representative). Plan on 2015 CPI target of 4.0% (plus/minus 2%) then CPI target of 4.0% (plus/minus 1%) from 2016 onwards

- The FX price action was quiet ahead of the Jan US Non-farm payroll data
. The USD continued to consolidate. Some analysts decided to close USD long positions believing that the current USD correction could run further in the near term
- Cable has established a foothold above 1.53 level for 4-week highs
- EUR/CHF slipped to lower towards the lower part of the 1.05 handle after SNB Jan FX Reserve data did not show any aggressive SNB intervention

**Political/In the Papers:
- (GR) Greece Fin Min Varoufakis plans to present the plan to the EMU at Feb 16 meeting; hopes to establish new contract with Europe
-( EU) ECB's Nowotny (Austria): New waiver for Greece collateral is conceivable

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) US VP Biden meets With EU Officials in Brussels
- (IT) Bank of Italy Balance-Sheet Aggregates
- 06:00 (BR) Brazil Jan IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 1.2%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 7.1%e v 6.4% prior
- 06:00 (CL) Chile Jan CPI M/M: -0.3%e v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.6% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior
- 06:00 (EU) Weekly ECB 3-Year LTRO Repayment vs. 10.0Be
- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:00 (FI) Finland Parliament hold no-confidence vote
- 06:00 (IS) Iceland to sell 5% 2017 Bonds
- 06:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserves
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Jan Official Reserve Assets: $375.5Be v $385.5B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Jan Official Reserves: No est v $100.4B prior
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:30 (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +230Ke v +252Kprior; Change in Private Payrolls: +228Ke v +240K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +12Ke v +17K prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 5.6%e v 5.6% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 11.2% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +111K prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: No est v 62.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Jan Average Hourly Earnings M/M: +0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.7% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.6e v 34.6 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Net Change in Employment: +5.0Ke v -11.3K prior (revised from -4.3K); Unemployment Rate: 6.7%e v 6.7% prior (revised from 6.6%); Full Time Employment Change: No est v 35.0K prior (revised from 53.5K); Part Time Employment Change: No est v -46.3K prior (revised from -57.7K); Participation Rate: 65.7%e v 65.7% (revised from 65.9%)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Dec Building Permits M/M: +5.0%e v -13.8% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence Index: 93.0e v 93.6 prior
- 12:45 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks on U.S. Economy in Naples, Florida
- 15:00 (US) Dec Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $14.1B prior
- (UR) Ukraine Jan CPI M/M: No est v 3.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 24.9% prior
- (UR) Ukraine Jan PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 31.8% prior

(CN) China Jan Trade Balance: No est v $49.6B prior
; Exports Y/Y: No est v 9.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: No est v -2.4% prior


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