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Monday February 9, 2015 - 12:05:40 GMT
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| | Email EU Mid-Market Update: Greece exit risks rise; Greece PM Tsiparas hardens his election pledges to roll back austerity and reject any bailout program extension

Mon, 09 Feb 2015 5:15 AM EST

- China Jan Trade Balance hits a record high surplus ($60.0B vs. $48.9Be) as components deteriorate (Exports Y/Y: -3.3% vs. +5.9%e; Imports Y/Y: -19.9% vs. -3.2%e); risk of CNY currency depreciation rising
- Greece exit risks rise; Greece PM Tsiparas hardens his election pledges to roll back austerity and reject any bailout program extension
- Markets continues to debate whether Friday's strong US labor market report has opened the path to higher bond yields and the Fed hiking rates earlier than expected

**Economic data***
- (JP) Japan Jan Bankruptcies Y/Y: -16.6% v -8.5% prior
- (JP) Japan Jan Consumer Confidence Index (miss) : 39.1 v 39.3e (2nd straight monthly improvement)
- (JP) Japan Eco Watcher Current Survey: 45.6 v 45.8e; Outlook Survey: 50.0 v 47.5e
- (DE) Germany Dec Current Account Balance (beat): 25.3B v 20.8Be; Trade Balance (beat): 19.1B v 16.0Be; Exports M/M: 3.4% v 1.0%e; Imports M/M: -0.8% v +0.2%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: 0.0B v -0.1B prior
- (FR) Bank of France Jan Business Sentiment (beat): 98 v 97e
- (TW) Taiwan Jan Trade Balance (beat): $4.8B v $4.1Be; Exports Y/Y: 3.4% v 2.1%e; Imports Y/Y: -4.8% v -1.2%e
- (CH) SNB Sight Deposits for Week Ended Feb 6th (CHF): 384.9B v 383.3B prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec Current Account Balance (DKK): 12.0B v 8.4Be; Trade Balance ex Shipping (DKK): 6.3B v 6.4Be
- (CZ) Czech Jan CPI (beat) M/M: +0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.2%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Industrial Production M/M: 1.2% v +0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 1.9%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Trade Balance 0.3B v 0.3Be
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.1% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -2.8% v +0.2% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -8.6% v -5.4% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Sentix Investor Confidence (beat): 12.4 v 3.0e
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI): Dec Bad Loan Ratio: 15.1% v 18.4% prior
- (GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.8% v +2.5% prior

Fixed Income:
(NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B in 10-month Bills; Yield: 0.76%, bid-to-cover: 2.84x

Indices [Stoxx50 -1.7%
, FTSE 100 -1% at 6,780, DAX -1.9% at 10,644, CAC-40 -1.4% at 4,625, IBEX-35 -2% at 10,362, FTSE MIB -1.9% at 20,365, SMI -0.5% at 8,547, Athens Stock Exchange -4.5%, S&P 500 Futures -0.6% at 2040]

- Market Focal Points/Key Themes: Equity markets open lower amid rise in Greek bond yields as dealers assess recent US payrolls data; German automakers weighed down by broker commentary; Recent rise in bond yields weigh on utilities

By Sector
- Energy
[Nordex NDX1.DE -2% (broker commentary), Areva AREVA.FR -1% (concerns related to FY14 results); GALP GALP.PT+2% (Q4 results above ests)]
- Healthcare [Roche ROG.CH -1% (broker commentary)]
- Financials [HSBC HSBA.UK -1% (concerns related to Swiss tax probe)]
- Stoxx50 Sectors [Consumer Cyclical -1.9%, Telecom -1.7%, Telecom -1.5%, Financials -1.5%, Utilities -1.4%, Consumer Non-Cyclical -1.3%, Industrials -1.2%, Energy -0.7%, Basic Materials -0.6%]

- G20 Draft Statement noted that the decline in oil prices to support global growth. Members would stick to prior FX pledges. It noted that some key economies had favorable outlook but monetary policies must remain accommodative. Diverging monetary policies must be calibrated. Weak inflation and sluggish growth risked stagnation. ECB decision to launch QE would help to support Euro Area recovery
- EU's Juncker: Greece PM Tsiparas should not assume sentiment has changed that EMU would adopt the Greek plans in its entirety
- German CDU Deputy party Chairman Fuchs: No way out for Greece on its treaty obligations; Troika conditions have to be fulfilled
- Russia Central Bank (CBR) Gov Nabiullina reiterated to let market define exchange rate and would not impose capital controls; Rate hike was not inevitable on CPI. She reiterated view that inflation to peak in Q2. Bank of Russia buys gold to provide ruble liquidity and would not intervene in FX unless the RUB currency threatened stability. Rate outlook depended on risks to economy and prices.
- Poland Labor Ministry: Jan Unemployment Rate seen at 12.1% (**Note: Dec reading was 11.5%)
- Turkey Central Bank gov Basci: Price stability is best contribution to growth. Immediate and rapid tightening was the solution to inflation
- US and UK Finance Ministers issued joint op-ed statement on Istanbul G20 meeting noting that structural reforms were not just fiscal and that monetary policy was needed for sustained economic growth
- Finland govt raised its forecast for 2015 net borrowing from 4.7B to 5.1B

- FX markets began the week on a cautious note as risk events appeared to be building. China trade data saw exports and imports weakening sharply while the Greek situation remained unresolved and Russia-Ukraine tension escalating. Precious metals were firmer as a result.
- One analyst noted that record-high USD-denominated debt holdings outside the US did not bode well for non-US risk appetite as US yields rose in the aftermath of Friday's payroll report.
- The JPY currency was a tad firmer on risk aversion sentiment and approaching the 118.50 area
- The EUR/USD remained above the Friday lows of 1.1310 despite a surge in Greek bond yields.

**Political/In the Papers:
- (NG) Nigeria would delay its presidential election for six weeks due to an Islamist insurgency in the north. The Feb. 14th presidential election now set for March 28th due to security concerns
- Greece PM Tsiparas stated to his Parliament to he would continue with pre-election promises and that austerity was not among its obligations; negotiations with EU would not be easy; would not negotiate a bailout extension and sought a bridge agreement to June

**Looking Ahead***
All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 5 hours for GMT equivalent)
- G20 finishes its 2-day meeting in Istanbul
- (TR) ECB chief Draghi participates at G20
- (US) Germany's Chancellor Merkel with President Obama in Washington
- (IL) Israel Central Bank Minutes
- (RO) Romania to sell 4.75% 2025 bond
- 05:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell 2.0B in 6-month BuBills
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Trade Balance: No est v -0.8B prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2020 and 2024 bonds
- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell bonds
- 06:00 (US) Treasury Sec Lew on CNBC
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan Trade Balance: No est v $1.2B prior; Total Exports: No est v $7.2B prior; Total Imports: No est v $6.0B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.8B
- 06:30 (CL) Chile Jan International Reserves: No est v $40.5B prior
- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IN) India Q4 GDP Y/Y:6.9%e v 5.3% prior
- 07:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank comments on Jan CPI data
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Jan Annualized Housing Starts: 184.0Ke v 180.3K prior (revised from 180.6K)
- 08:15 (US) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 5.8-7.0B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan CPI M/M: -0.1%e v +0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.1%e v 4.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior
- 09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-day main Refi
- 09:45 (EU) ECB announces weekly purchases under its covered bond program 3 (CBPP3)
- 10:00 (US) Labor Market Conditions: No est v 6.1 prior
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $52B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Jan ANZ Heavy Truckometer: No est v 2.1% prior
- 19:00 (AU) Australia to sell Index Linked Bonds
- 19:01 (UK) Jan BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan CPI Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.5% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan PPI Y/Y: -3.7%e v -3.3% prior
- 22:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 23:30 (TW) Taiwan to sell TWD40B in 30-Year Bonds


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